Egypt’s Unease about the GERD and the Possible Solutions

By Awash Lemma

The GERD has become a symbol of national pride, unity, and renaissance for Ethiopians. It embodies an expression of hope, determination, self-confidence, and sacrifice. On the other hand it drew a fervent opposition from Egypt mainly expressed in forms of gross disparagement, threats, and confusing messages. Ethiopians are increasingly expressing their puzzlement and anger at Egyptian officials’ behaviour. In this essay I discuss the concerns & strategy of the Egyptian government; how Egypt can overcome these, and the likely key issues the two sides would bring up to achieve a negotiated solution.

1. Egypt’s Concerns

The Nile Issue as a Trump Card

A writer recently claimed that the issue of the Nile is the main reason why Mr Morsi lost his power. I beg to differ. The Nile issue was not the main issue in the minds of Egyptians when they ousted President Morsi. They were mainly against his usurping their revolution, the rapid Islamisation of his administration, alienation of the secular revolutionaries, the haste in which he travelled in changing laws to keep his Moslem Brotherhood in power. He seemed to have learnt a lesson or two from the Iranians on how to build an Islamic / theocratic political system. The Egyptian people, bewildered by his actions moved to depose him. When he realised power is slipping away from him he tried to use the Nile issue as a trump card – remember the infamous meeting he chaired and televised live on TV. Remember his repeated rhetoric of ‘not a drop of Nile water..’, ‘all options are open..’, etc. etc. Desperate moves for desperate times. If, as some claim, the Nile issue was at the top of Egyptian people’s concerns at the time and if Egyptian people’s views were reflected by Mr Morsi’s hard-line position, then it is easy to conclude that Mr Morsi would have still been the president today.

The Drivers for Egyptian Officials’ Hysteria

What are the factors that shaped Egyptian officials’ minds to such hysteric reactions to the GERD? I came across with the following:
Internal / regional politics: It can be argued that one of the key reasons for the behaviour of Egyptian officials on the GERD is to divert the attention of the population from the economic, social, and political problems that are raging in the country currently. Plus, creating an imagined enemy that is determined to ‘destroy Egypt’s survival’ appeals well not only to Egyptians but also to some in the Arab Middle East; and garners support and assures flow of huge amount of money to Cairo.

Vanity – Fuelling the dispute is the dubious thinking often expressed as Egypt’s ‘natural’ and ‘historical’ rights, ‘national security’, ‘Arab ownership of the Nile’, etc. which lies deep in the psyche of Egyptians with regard to the Nile. Further, if such a mega dam was to be built at all, they seem to think, then that is the prerogatives of Egypt - not a poor country like Ethiopia which is technically and financially incapable.

Loss of territory - We know that some animals piss around natural land marks to demarcate the boundary for their territory. They feel dominant, and overlord on all animals in that defined territory. They aggressively fight off any intruder. Similarly, it seems that long ago Egypt had done something similar at two landmarks,
Lake Tana and Lake Victoria, to demarcate the southern boundary of its territory of influence. Hasn’t Egypt forbade any water development projects in the riparian countries that it does not approve of? Didn’t they claim they have a ‘veto’ on such developments? Didn’t they warn that any country planning a project on the Nile requires permission from Egypt? In effect Egypt has awarded itself the power of controlling the territories of other Nile countries. Therefore, the GERD implies loss of territory for Egypt. Call it virtual territory loss, if you wish. Even though the GERD is built in Western Ethiopia, much farther away from Egyptian real border it transgresses the sovereignty of the virtual territory they considered their own for millennia.

Population growth: Very fast growth of Egyptian population is a big concern for the government, and rightly so. However, it is surprising to observe why such a country as Egypt which has a uniquely limited natural resources, particularly habitable and arable land, and water to support a large population has allowed such a high rate of growth in the first place. Egypt can learn a lot from countries, such as China and India that have effectively controlled population growth through various strategies including family planning.

Rivalry - Militarily the most powerful country of the continent, leader of the Arab world, one of the anchors of stability in the Middle East, Egypt cherishes its International and regional positions. A recent rise of Ethiopia as a regional power coupled with the internal political upheaval it faced seems to shake the established position of Egypt. Ethiopia - arising, confident, and aspirant, is drawing a lot of global attention and this seems to rattle Egyptian elite class.

Fear - For some reason Egyptians appear to ignore the fact that water contained in a dam for power generation eventually flows only downwards. As an Ethiopian commentator rightly indicated recently, Ethiopia neither can nor has the intention of forcing the Nile to flow upwards. A grain of racism probably; it seems for Egyptians that Black Africans proposing on matters of the Nile is inconceivable. It must be stopped at any cost. If it dealt with Ethiopia through blackmail, threats, propaganda, or even direct attack it would be a lesson for other riparian countries. They fear that while Ethiopia’s dam is purely for energy generation dams in the upper riparian countries could be worse for Egypt – they could be multi-purpose including irrigation.

2.. To Bomb or not to Bomb – Is That the Question?

The Revolution and the Generals

I do not think Egypt has even convinced itself that it should go to war on the issue. It knows that all its objections and tantrums are built on empty rhetoric, and have no substance. If Egypt were blessed with a democratic and civilian government I would rule out any notion of military conflict. Just recall the period during the height of Egypt’s revolution some two years ago. Citizens initiated people to people dialogue and there were visits and discussions between Ethiopians and Egyptians. Egyptians were as surprised as Ethiopians; it was all about friendship, cooperation, and win-win solutions. It was proof to Ethiopians that Egypt is full of people of goodwill, looking and working as they do for dialogue and lasting friendship. The sincerity and honesty these encounters demonstrated seemed at odds with Egyptian government officials’ daily rhetoric. Unfortunately, that initiative was short lived; the Egyptian elite went back to their old bad ways. Now the revolution seems defeated and Egypt has fallen back into the arms of its generals. It is a sad thing for Egyptians and for the region.

The Role of the International Community

One Mr Hussein (I think) writing for Aljazeera recently tried to analyse the various options Egypt has to confront the Ethiopian project. As one of the options he said Egypt could bomb the dam. But then he claims Egypt may not take this action because it would fear repercussions from the International Community. I couldn’t but laugh at such analysis. Fear of repercussions? If it is an existential, national security issue, as Egyptian officials tirelessly propagate, would fear of repercussions from the International Community stop them? By the way, Egypt wouldn’t be alone in ignoring the International Community. Look at Israel; Iran, no,

look at Eritrea; they go on doing what they think is right for them despite various resolutions and sanctions from the International Community. Further, what makes him believe Egyptians are, in fact capable of successfully launching such an attack? Why did Mr Hussein think Ethiopia would be sitting idle while her dam is bombed?

If such a conflict takes place what position powers behind the ‘International Community’ would take is difficult to predict. Speaking of the International Community that probably matters most is the US. As far as the US is concerned the main concern it has in the region are three - Israel, oil, and terrorism. The position it would take is likely to be weighed against these interests rather than justice or other moral imperatives. It can be assumed that both Ethiopia and Egypt are allies and friends of the US, and in time of conflict between the two the US might be in a difficult position. But let’s not forget that all friends are not equal and the US my tilt to the one which is more important to its ‘national interest’.

As to Russia its international stand and role are often confusing. The recent Egyptian purchase of huge amount of armaments from Russia is puzzling. Why did Egypt go to Russia rather than stick to the American supply? Is it because Egypt wants to counter the US’s displeasure and a half-hearted criticism of the coup against a democratically elected president? Or, is it that the US knows about the objective of this purchase and disagreed? Haven’t the Russians asked questions and set conditions when they sell these armaments?

In any case, while the International Community matters a lot in maintaining world peace it has not been always successful. Ethiopia cannot depend on the protection of the International Community only, as her recent history testifies that the International Community has failed it whenever it appealed for support (the Italian invasion and the recent Eritrean invasion are cases in point). As always the only assured defence for Ethiopia is its patriotic army and people.

What Would President Al-Sisi Do?

Despite all his failings and hostility towards Ethiopia, I feel Sadat had shown some courage and wisdom in bringing to an end the perpetual hostility Egypt and Israel had, and negotiating a peaceful settlement. This resulted in a lot of condemnation from some political circles and eventually his loss of life. But his action brought peace to his country and the region at large.

Egyptian generals turned presidents often appear stern, detached, and grand -avatars of pharaohs past. One feels they are nearer to the moon than to us humans living on Earth. Will President al-Sisi (I predict he will be President winning more than 85% of the votes) be any different? Would he be a modern leader with new ideas, and new ways? Would he follow Sadat’s courageous change of heart and embrace negotiation and compromise for solving regional problems? Or, would he continue with the old bad ways? Hopefully, he may see the futility of hostility of the past, and take steps to build peace, friendship, and cooperation with Ethiopia and other riparian countries. Let’s wait and see.

3. The Way Forward

From Confrontation to Cooperation

In my view, the way forward for a win-win outcome for all can be outlined as follows. Generally speaking, Egypt should make a 180 degrees turnabout - a total overhaul of its policy, strategy, and total thinking on the Nile, from confrontation to cooperation.

3.1 Forget the past (‘historical rights’, ‘colonial treaties’, etc.) and look to the future through the Nile Basin Initiative. Work on a win-win solution to any problem along with riparian countries within the framework. Egypt doesn’t seem to realise that its demand for intervention in the affairs of the GERD would apply the other way round as well; that is, all other riparian countries’ governments would have the same desire. That is, to intervene in the affairs of all water projects and dams, existing and future, including those in Egypt. It is unlikely that any of the riparian countries will agree with one rule for Egypt and another for the rest of them. In effect, therefore, this means that there is no option other than to work together under the Nile Basin Initiative.

3.2 An apology is due – It would be a sign of goodwill and a beginning of a new chapter in relations if the Egyptian government would apologise to the Ethiopian people and government for its past and present hostile stances and policies. It should take the open arm invitation of Ethiopia for cooperation and friendship on the Nile and beyond. They will find that Ethiopians may not be forgetting but are forgiving.

3.3 Embrace Africa - Egypt should not get stuck just at looking towards the North (Europe) and the Middle East only, should also genuinely turn its face to the south (i.e. sub-Saharan Africa). Africa is getting the attention of the world; there is a new scramble for Africa. Africa is where the opportunity is, it is the future (if in doubt ask the Chinese, Indians, Americans, Europeans, etc.). Egypt should abandon its long held prejudices and arrogance and build the bridge of friendship and cooperation for its own good.

3.4. Further, Egypt can take various measures to improve its water management in the short term and long term as follows:

a) Economise and preserve - Use the Nile waters along its banks only

b) Overhaul its irrigation techniques and systems and adapt modern ones. Egypt is fortunate to have powerful and rich friends. For example, it can easily get most advanced water management technology from its neighbour, Israel. Israel is reputed for highly advanced, probably the most advanced, water technology. Finance is no issue; as the Gulf States pour money into Egypt without asking any questions, including for purchase of war toys. There is the US who could convert the billions of assistance per annum in armaments to water and environmental management technologies.

c) Scrap the grand designs to divert Nile waters to the Egyptian desert at large, much further from the banks, and also to Sinai Peninsula and beyond.

d) Review its agricultural policy and focus on growing food crops only and give up water wasting cash crops.

e) Negotiate with South Sudan and the Sudan, through the Nile Basin Initiative, to harvest water from the wetlands and boost the flow of the White Nile. I think this is an existing project which is on hold partly due to the lack of peace in the area. Egypt’s hostility and sabotage of South Sudan’s aspiration for independence had a role. Now that South Sudan has achieved its independence, I think it can be persuaded to activate the project as a mutually beneficial undertaking.

f) Desalination: Reports abound that inform us that the cost and process of desalination is improving tremendously with modern technology and is becoming an important source of fresh water. Again talk to friends such as Israel, the US, and Gulf States which are very ready to help. For example, recently, it is reported that the financial pledges from Gulf States to Egypt amounted to $16 billion.

g) Dig. A recent report claims that Egypt is virtually ‘floating on water’. It is very rich in underground water, in fact much richer than Ethiopia, and is ranked second in Africa. So, dig Egypt, dig.

h) Dig more. A recent Economist article informs us that the Earth’s crust is endowed with abundant amount of water. It requires only digging deeper, according to the article. So Egypt, dig even more!

The Billion Dollar Question

Mind you, all the above are in addition to the regular flow of the Nile as usual whose flow will not be significantly affected by the GERD. So, the billion dollar question is while there are so many plausible possibilities for water development why is Egypt opting for hostility and confrontation on issues of the Nile? Ethiopia and Egypt may not be in the same ‘poverty league’, but I assume Egypt has as many social and economic problems to tackle as Ethiopia. A recent article in the Economist indicates that more than 25% of its population (that is more than 20 million Egyptians) live in poverty. As Ethiopia does, Egypt can aim fighting poverty as a priority.

Therefore overcoming Egypt’s concerns is really a matter of giving up their strong and long held prejudices and fears, grasping reality, and working in a spirit of friendship and cooperation for a win-win solution.

4. The Inevitable Negotiations

The above possible solutions are compiled by me, an individual who has no experience or expertise in water management or ‘water politics’. My views are only a common sense reflection from casual reading of current writings on the issues. On the other hand it is clear that Egyptians, endowed with tens of thousands of scientists, water experts, engineers, hydrologists, technologists, etc., and I hope equally informed politicians too, should know much much more and better than the likes of me.

Then, why are solutions along the above lines not forthcoming? What is keeping the Egyptians just to enmity, confrontation, rhetoric, threats, blackmailing, etc. on issues of the Nile for so long?

Many reports posted on related webcites indicate that the idea of building a dam on the Blue Nile is not new. It has been considered several times in the past involving Ethiopian, British, and American governments and companies from the latter two countries. Among the proposals was that Egypt / Sudan bear most of the cost of such a dam, and also should pay annual water fees to Ethiopia. Now it seems Egypt is getting the benefits of such a dam without paying any of the cost or any water fees. I think Egyptian unease about the GERD comes from this – that is; getting all the benefit of the dam free is too good to be true!

The strategy, therefore, is to continue to threaten, confuse, undermine, destabilise, pressurise; isolate, defame, encircle; campaign against Ethiopia and the dam at any and every forum. This is intended to shape world opinion and build the grounds in Egypt’s favour for the inevitable negotiations to come. Eventually, when there is some kind of mediation and subsequent negotiations Egypt will use all these as bargaining chips. It will claim it has made a lot of difficult concessions while it has made none; other than giving up the threats and rhetoric - ‘historical rights’, ‘a drop of water’, etc. From Egypt’s point of view, key issues to be tabled are likely to include - a limitation on the size of the dam, stretching the filling time of the dam, joint management, joint ownership, etc. or combinations of any of these. Egypt will try to get Ethiopia into a binding commitment that Egypt should get all the benefits from the dam free. This and future Ethiopian governments should not ask any payment from Egypt what so ever. However, current indications are that Ethiopia is unlikely to compromise on most of these issues.

On the Ethiopian part there are issues it would bring to the table. Among other things the negotiations and any agreement should come under the Nile Basin Initiative Framework. Further, on specific issues of the GERD she should insist on a trilateral rather than a bilateral agreement. The Sudan should be part of any agreements to be reached. A mechanism of managing the natural environment, particularly reforestation of the Ethiopian highlands should be agreed with a possibility of annual financial contributions from Egypt and the Sudan for this purpose. Egypt should present to the negotiation forum its short term and long term strategy and commitment for water preservation and management along the issues outlined in 3.4 above. The negotiations are likely to be mediated by the
Americans and possibly the Europeans, and Ethiopia should use the forum to demand from these powers to bringing to an end the deliberate starvation of World
Bank and IMF funds to various Ethiopian projects.