The deal with Egypt should not be an extension of the colonial “agreements”, of the 1929 and 1955.

October, 24/201
By W.Yilma

There are rumors coming from Cairo that Egypt is willing to negotiate with Ethiopia regarding the Grand Renaissance Dam (GRD). Even some media outlets, including Ethiopian are disseminating the news that Egyptians are ready to cooperate in the construction process of the dam. This idea is not new. Since the beginning of the GRD construction, Egypt and the Sudan were invited to participate by investing to this huge dam. However, it was Egypt which is not only rejects the idea but also venomously opposed the starting of this project in the first place. Openly and secretly Egyptians started spreading psychological warfare aginst Ethiopia. With unknown reasons, Egyptians turn 360 Degree and show willingness to participate. We have to be optimistic about their new shift from their “historical stance”. This is the first time the Egyptian show an interest to discuss specifically the Nile water issue in which they sabotaging and rejecting for century. However time will tell us whether or not this move is a real or a preposterous diplomatic showdown. We have to know diplomacy is a high and dangerous art! In any case, Ethiopia should take this step as a good gesture to start credible negotiation with Egypt. Diplomatic negotiation should get priority and should be exhausted to avoid un necessary conflicts.

The Nile water is a geo-political issue. Therefore many countries are involved with the absence of credible agreements. Because of this we do not know what is going on behind the door on the side of Egypt politicians. What need to be clear here is that, there are groups who are praying day and night to see confrontation, and war between Ethiopia and Egypt. As we know our country does not have reliable friends, and not all are happy to see our economic developments. There are special interest international organizations in the name of environmental protection, human right, indigenous people right group, international rivers, etc.. disguising themselves with different names and venomously opposing the construction of dam both on Nile and Omo rivers. The same as they are concerned for Turkana people, they too will show sympathy to Egyptian than ours developments endeavors. Some even are considering Ethiopian development as a threat to their national security and geo- political interest. Therefore in dealing with both the Egyptian and the Sudan, the Ethiopian government should be ready in all fronts, because of the following reasons:

1. We have to be very cautious about the Egyptian drastic shift at eleven hours to sit down for negotiations. Although the move should be appreciated, its repercussion should be scrutinized carefully. It is clear Egypt is not in a good political, economic, and diplomatic position at this time. This is because the GRD completed almost 30% and Ethiopian stance is un flinched in this case. Beside this, Egypt does not have a ground to justify a military threat or diplomatic pressure without engaging in dialogue with Ethiopia. Therefore her drastic shift could be a preparation for one of these moves.



2. The other strategy Egypt might want to put pressure on Ethiopia is by asking an involvement of third party, to settle or facilitate a new agreement between the two countries that could favor Egypt’s demand. Ethiopia should categorically oppose any involvement of the third party. Because this kind of proposals could handicap Ethiopia and put her in difficult diplomatic positions. Obviously, the third party could be an Egyptian geo-political strategic partner from the big powers.



3. The Egyptian decision could be a strategy to slow dawn the ongoing dam construction, so that to get time to prepare and effectively to execute her hidden agendas. We should know in politics, especially when it comes to geo-political interest like this, there are no constant and credible friends. Leave alone Egypt a small country with no human, economic, and natural resources Eritrea in the name of border issue, launch a war against us. Already we are at war with Eritrea, and they are ready to exploit this situation. What should be clear here is that even Sudan and Kenya could turn their back if the rule of the game inclined to the other side. The enemy within also could be a challenge if there is no consensus to ease down the political tensions prevailing in the country. The threat of others secessionist, together with the radical Islam movement (Al-itahad, Al-shibab) in our region also should be taken into considerations.

Beside what has been said above, the Egyptians are in the process of intensive diplomatic maneuvers, especially in Eastern African countries. They are trying to influence the South Sudan both in diplomatic, military, and financial aid. No one knows the outcomes all these new move by the Egyptian.



4. The Egyptian decision could be to control the construction of the dam, and by doing so to reduce its capacity. As many media outlets are posted the Egyptian stand, they are willing to negotiate if only they have a direct involvement and say in GRD construction process. This means theirs so called “experts” will start from the scratch to study the technicality of the dam as well as the environmental impacts of the dam to downstream countries. They also want to assign their “experts” permanently in the site. All these new proposals by Egyptians and especially the former two terms (technicality as well as environmental impacts studies) are very vague and complex issues to deal with the party which have neither interest nor good will. Especially, with Egyptian “water experts “it will be extremely difficult and challenging process to conduct intellectual discussions .They lack intellectual honesty and intentionally committed fallacies with regard Nile River issues. To me if these proposals rose by Egyptian as a precondition, they are not better than a colonial agreement of the 1929 and 1955.

Last, such a huge and expensive dam construction which cost considerable amount of investment, and man powers, should technically reliable, stable, and environmentally friendly both to up and down streams countries. The Ethiopian government should strive to entertain the Egyptian concerns (mainly on those recommendations proposed by the international experts panels), if they are sincere and have a good gesture to work together for the benefits of the two countries. Other than this caution should be taken not to open loopholes that could drag the speedy of the project.

Long Live Ethiopia