WikiLeaks releases Unclassified document about Land grab in Ethiopia

SUBJECT: FOREIGN INVESTORS GRAB UP MORE LAND IN ETHIOPIA

WikiLeaks

REF: 09 ADDIS ABABA 2900

ADDIS ABAB 00000247 001.2 OF 002


SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION.

¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Government of Ethiopia's (GoE) recent high
profile land deals and shift in agricultural policy (reftel) have
attracted additional foreign investors to the agricultural and
tourism sectors. In January, Egyptian Prime Minster Dr. Ahmed Nazif
led a large delegation to Ethiopia to announce the National Bank of
Egypt's lease of 49,400 acres of land to grow cereals. Press
reports indicated that these cereals are headed for export to Egypt.
Former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo and Djiboutian
President Ismael Omar Guelleh separately leased land plots to build
hotels outside of Addis Ababa, while Guelleh already leases a 7,400
acre farm that started exporting wheat back to Djibouti last year.
Finally, the South African private equity investment fund Agri-Vie
invested USD 3.5 million in a company that is growing and processing
various fruits to manufacture juice products. These juice products
will primarily target the European and the Middle Eastern markets as
reported by the company to Econoff. Despite the benefits of
increased foreign investment, political opposition members and
international critics remain skeptical about the GoE's motives and
the land policy's affect on poor, rural Ethiopians. End Summary.


Egyptians Eye Investment Opportunities
--------------------------------------

¶2. (U) The Egyptian Prime Minister, Dr. Ahmed Nazif, led the latest
charge of foreign agricultural investment during a January visit to
Ethiopia. Nazif, alongside his delegation of several cabinet
ministers and 26 agricultural companies, announced that the
state-owned National Bank of Egypt plans to invest USD 40 million in
the lease of 49,400 acres of land in the Afar region to grow
cereals. Press reports stated that these cereals would be exported
to Egypt despite the GoE's 2007 "temporary" export ban on all
cereals that has never been formally lifted. (Note: It appears
Saudi, Djiboutian, and now Egyptian investors have somehow bypassed this ban, while other investors informed Econoff that they have not been allowed to export cereal grains (reftel). End Note.) The bank is also poised to open an office in Ethiopia to serve existing and
new Egyptian projects and plans to offer credit of USD 14.6 million
to six Ethiopian banks according to local press reports. (Note: the
domestic banking sector is closed to foreign banks; however, other
foreign banks such as Germany's Commerzbank do have offices in
Ethiopia to facilitate relations with Ethiopian banks. It is
unclear how the National Bank of Egypt could offer credit in
Ethiopia in evident violation of banking and financial regulations.
End Note.) Beyond the focus on agriculture, Nazif signed a
memorandum of understanding with GoE Prime Minister Meles Zenawi to form an Ethio-Egypt Council of Commerce. Meles said during the
signing ceremony that relations between Ethiopia and Egypt had
evolved from distrust towards friendly cooperation. Other areas of
Egyptian business interest included livestock, drug manufacturing,
and hydroelectric power.

Former Nigerian President and Djiboutian President Also Invest
--------------------------------------------- ------

¶3. (U) Another foreign VIP seen around town and looking for land was
the former president of Nigeria, Olusegun Obasanjo. Obasanjo
recently leased about five acres of land near Debrezeit, Oromia
region (about 50 kilometers east of Addis Ababa) to develop a hotel
and tourist destination. In addition, current Djiboutian President
Ismael Omar Guelleh recently acquired the right to develop about 2.5
acres of lakeside land in Debrezeit to build a hotel. This
acquisition added to the 7,400 acres of farmland Guelleh leased last
year in Bale, Oromia region. According to post's conversations with
local agricultural business investors and press reports, this farm
has already harvested wheat and other cereals for export to
Djibouti.

Private Equity Fund Invests in Fruit Juice Farm
--------------------------------------------- --


ADDIS ABAB 00000247 002.2 OF 002


¶4. (U) South African private equity fund Agri-Vie has also chosen to
invest in Ethiopia's agricultural sector. The fund invested USD 3.5
million in africaJUICE, a company already in the process of
establishing fruit production and processing operations when Econoff
visited its 3,000 acre operation last year. The Dutch and British
company representatives reported to Econoff that it plans to target
the juice markets in Europe and the Middle East. The company
purchased this farm (not the land) from the GoE and converted it to
produce yellow passion fruit, mango, and papaya.

Critics Concerned About Rural Population
----------------------------------------

¶5. (U) As more reports of foreign land leases in Ethiopia surface,
the GoE continues to insist local farmers will not be adversely
affected by its land deals. Regarding agricultural investment, the
GoE views foreign investor involvement as key to the country's move
from subsistence to commercial farming (reftel). On top of any
potential damage to local farmers, international and political
opposition party critics cite concerns over exporting food from a
country that relies so heavily on imported food aid and the
perceived low wages that foreign investors pay its employees.
Merara Gudina, Chairman of the Ethiopian Federal Democratic Unity
Forum (a coalition of political opposition parties), accused the GoE
of using its land "giveaway" policy to hold on to power and to buy
diplomatic support. U.S.-based GoE opposition movement Ginbot 7
stated in a January editorial that the GoE needs to change its
communist land policy and empower local farmers, who have the
potential to produce a marketable surplus. The editorial further
noted that any land deal that has not been agreed to by the
Ethiopian people will not be honored by future elected governments.


Comment
-------

¶6. (SBU) The GoE clearly needed to shift its agricultural policy in
order to make effective use of its vast amounts of fertile land, and
the agricultural policy mix being implemented is viewed by most
experts as a step in the right direction. However, that evolving
policy is a long way from proving its worth as a vehicle for
achieving the GoE's stated goals of modernizing the sector,
generating foreign exchange reserves, and increasing the domestic
food supply. End Comment.

African leaders in Ethiopia land grab

afrol News, 28 January - Several African leaders have bought lands in Ethiopia to develop agricultural projects or tourism resorts. They are let to bypass a 2007 ban on export of cereals, still in place for other investors.

It has earlier been known that former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasansjo and current Djiboutian President Ismael Omar Guelleh privately have bought up large properties in Ethiopia. Also the Egyptian Prime Minister managed to buy large agricultural land tracts in Ethiopia on behalf of his government.

However, a US Embassy cable from February last year, released by Wikileaks today, indicates that several of these underreported deals operate in the grey zone of Ethiopian legislation.

Following a food crisis in 2007, Ethiopia "temporarily" banned all exports of cereals. The ban has never been formally lifted. Still, both the Egyptian government project and Djiboutian President Guelleh have been allowed to export cereals cultivated on the lands sold to them by the Ethiopian government.

"It appears Saudi, Djiboutian, and now Egyptian investors have somehow bypassed this ban," the US Embassy report from Addis Ababa said. Meanwhile other investors had informed Embassy staff "that they have not been allowed to export cereal grains."

President Guelleh recently acquired the right to develop about 2.5 acres of lakeside land in Debrezeit to build a hotel. This acquisition added to the 7,400 acres of farmland Mr Guelleh leased in 2009 in Bale, Oromia region. "According to post's conversations with local agricultural business investors and press reports, this farm has already harvested wheat and other cereals for export to Djibouti," the report said.

The Egyptians had followed the same path, according to the official US source. Egyptian Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif, heading a large top-end delegation, last year announced that the state-owned National Bank of Egypt planned to invest US$ 40 million in the lease of 49,400 acres of land in the Afar region to grow cereals. Also these cereals "would be exported to Egypt," it was noted.

The US diplomat also noted that the Egyptian National Bank also was "poised to open an office in Ethiopia" and to offer credits to six Ethiopian banks. But, the domestic banking sector is closed to foreign banks. "It is unclear how the National Bank of Egypt could offer credit in Ethiopia in evident violation of banking and financial regulations," the US Ambassador notes.

Other recent major investors in Ethiopian agricultural land had included the South African private equity fund Agri-Vie. The company had acquired 3,000 acres of land and company was last year already in the process of establishing fruit production and processing operations. The company was to target the juice markets in Europe and the Middle East.

Among the most prominent investors in Ethiopian lands was Nigerian ex-President Obasanjo, whose actions were keenly followed by US Embassy staff, the report reveals. Mr Obasanjo had "recently leased about five acres of land near Debrezeit, Oromia region (about 50 kilometres east of Addis Ababa) to develop a hotel and tourist destination," the report said.

The US Ambassador also discussed the criticism against the land grab in Ethiopia, with several claiming it would further jeopardise the critical food security situation in the country. He however agrees with Ethiopian authorities that a commercialisation of the agricultural sector and foreign investment were necessary.

Nevertheless, he commented that Ethiopia's new land lease policy was "a long way from proving its worth as a vehicle" for the national economy. It was not "generating foreign exchange reserves" at a larger level, indicating the prices achieved in the deals brokered by Prime Minister Meles Zenawi himself were too low.
By staff writer

የወያኔ የስለላ መረብና የአፈና ዘዴዎች — አደፍርስ ተሰማ

በዓለም ላይ ሃገር ተብለው ሰንደቅ የሚያውለበልቡ ሁሉ የሃገርን ሉዓላዊነት ለመጠበቅ ሰላይና ተሰላይ (የሰላይ ተሰላይ) ማሰማራታችው ያለና የሚኖር ነው። ወያኔ የሃገር አለቃ ከሆነ ጊዜ ጀምሮ እእላፍ ነዋይና የሰው ጉልበት የሚያፈሰው በሃገር ውስጥና በዉጭ ያሉ ተቀናቃኝ ሃይሎችን አሜን ለማሰኘት ወይንም ጸጥ ለማረግ በመጣር ላይ ነው። ለዚህም በበረሃ እያለ ከሶሪያ፤ከሊቢያ፤ ከኢራቅና ከአለቃው ከሻቢያ የቆነጣጠበውን ዘይቤ በሙጫ አያይዞ ሲጠቀምበት ቆይቷዋል። በሚኒሊክ ቤተመንግስት ራሱን አጠግቶ የኤርትራን ነፃነት እወቁልኝ ብሎ ለዓለም ከለፈፈ ጀምሮ ደግሞ በእንግሊዙ ኤምአይ አምስት፤ በእስራኤሉ ሞሳድና በአሜሪካው ሲአኤ ልምድና መሳሪያ እየተደገፈ የህዝባችንን መከራ አባብሶታል።

ቂጣና ቆሎ በልቶ አዳሪ የሆነውን ህዝባችንን የሚያዋክቡበት በልሃት ከጊዜ ወደ ጊዜ እየረቀቀ በመሄድ ላይ ነው። የስለላ መረባቸው የተዘረጋው በገጠር፤ በከተማ፤ በስደተኞች ካምፕ፤ በወታደራዊ ከፍሎች፤ በመንግስትና በግል መስራቤቶች በቡና ቤቶችና ሃበሻ በሰፈረባቸው የሰሜን አሜሪካ፤ እስያ፤ አውሮጳ፤ አረብ ሃገራትና በአውስትራሊያ ነው። ለእኛ ካላደረ ያዝና ጥለፈው የሚለው ይህ የወያኔ የስለላ መረብ የሚጠልፈው ለኢትዮጵያ ህዝብ አንድነትና ነጻነት ድምጻቸውን የሚያሰሙትን ሁሉ ነው። በብቀላና በምን አለብኝ ዘይቤ አይኑ የታወረው የዚህ ጠባብ ብሔርተኛ ድርጅት አሰራር ጥፍር አርጎ የሚገዛው ለስራዓቱ ያጎነበሱትንም ሁሉ ነው።

እስቲ ወያኔ ከሚጠቀምባቸው የአፈና፤ የግድያ፤ የጠለፋ ዘዴዎች ጥቂቶችን እንመልከት።

ጠለፋ – ይህ አሰራር ማንም ቢሆን የማያውቀው ተጠላፊው በትግራይ በረሃዎች ከጭቃ በተለሰኑ ቤቶች ተወሽቆ ፍጽም የሚረሳበት አሰራር ነው። አያሌ ኢትዮጵያዊን በዚህ ሁኔታ ተወስደው የገብቡበት አይታወቅም።

ጊዜአዊ ጠለፋና ምርመራ – በአዲስ አበባና በሌሎች ክልሎች በውጭ እጅ በሰለጠኑ የወያኔ አፋኝ ቡድን በመያዝ ምርመራ ከተደረገ በህዋላ ደስ ያላቸውን እዛው ይረሽናሉ የቀሩትን ወህኒ ያወርዳሉ – ይህ አሰራር በአዲስ አበባ አካባቢ የተለመደ ነው። ስውር እስር ቤቶች በየስፍራው ተመቻችተዋል። ይህኑ በተመለከተ የግንቦት ሰባት ዘገባን ይመልከቱ።

ቀን ቆጥሮ የሚገል መርዝ ማላስ – ይህን አስራር ለማስፈጸም በምግብ ቤቶች፤ በቡና ቤቶችና ምግብና መጠጥ በሚሽጥባቸው ስፍራዎች በተሰገሰጉ የወያኔ ሰላዮች አማካኝነት ይፈጸማል። ለዚህም ስራ መልከ መልካሞች፤ ወንድን ማባብል የሚያውቁበት ተመርጠው ስትራቴጂክ በሆነ ስፍራዎች የመደባሉ። የወያኔን ትዕዛዝ ያዳምጣሉ፤ ይፈጽማሉ። ይህ አሰራር የስደተኛ ካምፓችን ሁሉ ያጠቃልላል።

የቡድን ደብደባ – ይህ ወያኔ የተካነበት የቆዬ ብልሃቱ ነው። የአለም አጫዋቹና ለወያኔ ስርዓት አዳሪውን ሰለሞን ተካልኝን አማኝ ነኝ ብሎ ወደሃገር ከገባ በህዋላ ተሰብስበው የመቱት አለቅነታቸውን ለማሳወቅ ነው። በዚህ ተግባር ላይ ያሰማራው የትግራይ ተወላጆችን ድላ አስይዞ ሲያስደበድብ የቆየ ሲሆን አሁን ከሆነ ደግሞ ስራ ፈትና የከተማ ወንጀለኞችን መጠቀም ጀምረዋል።

የግድያ ውሳኔ – ይህ አፈጻጽም ብዙ ዘይቤ ይከተላል። በመኪና ገጭቶ በመግደል አፈትልኮ መጥፋት፤ መውጫ መግቢያውን አፍኖ በመያዝ ግድሎ መሰወር ወይም አስከሬኑን አንስቶ በአምቡላንስ መውሰድና ከሙታን ማረፊያ መጨመር፤ አታሎ ከከተማ ውጭ በማውጣት በአዘጋጃቸው የቅጥር ነፍሰ ገዳዮች ማስገደል። የካፒቴን ዳንኤል በየነ ድከም ላይ አገዳደል ይህን የወያኔ አሰራር አጉልቶ ያሳያል። በመዝናኛና በፓለቲካ ስብሰባዎች ላይ ጠብ እንዲነሳ በማረግ በግርግር መካከል ያልተፈለጉ ሰዎችን በታጣቂዎች ማስገደልና ዜናውን አጣሞ ማናፈስ። በተጠርጣሪው የመኖሪያ ቤት በድንገት በመድረስ በገመድ አንጠልጥሎ በመግደል ራስን እንደገደለ አስመስሎ ማቅረብ (የገንዘብ ስርቆትን ለማቆም የታገሉ የባንክ አመራር በዚህ መንገድ ነው የተገደሉት) ወያኔ ከሚገለገለባቸው ዜዴዎች ጎልተው የሚታዩት ናችው።

ወያኔ በቂም የሰከረ ድርጅት ነው። ለወያኔ አማራ ሁሉ ጠላቱ ነው። ሞቶ መነሳት በተሰኘው የህይወቱ ስንክ-ሳር ካፕቴን ተሾመ ተንኮሉ በወያኔ እጅ የደረሰበትን ግፍና እናቱ እርሱን ለመፈለግ የወያኔ አለቆች ደጅ የጠኑበትን ሁኔታ ሳነብ መቃብር ከገባች ዘመን የተቆጠራት ውድ እናቴ እኔኑ ከስር ለመጠየቅ መጥታ የተንጋላታችው ትዝ ብሎኝ ስቅስቅ ብየ ነበር ያነባሁት። የማያልፍላት ሃገር። ግፈኞች የሚናጠቋት ምድር። ታሪክን ቀዶ መጻፍና ቆርጦ መቀጠልን የተካኑት ወያኔዎች ህዝባችንን አህያ ጅብ በላ እያሉ ያሞኙታል።

ይህ ድርጀት አሰራሩ እንደ ኢጣሊያኑ የማፍያ ቡድን ነው። ለመኖር ትገላለህ፡ ለቡድኑ ጠቀሜታ አላስፈላጊ ወይም የዓይን ምስክር መሆንህ ሲያስፈራቸው አንተንም አፈር ይመልሱብሃል። ከዚያ ቁጣ አምልጠው በስካንድኔቪያና በሌሎች የአለማችን ክፍል ተደብቀው የሚኖሩ አሉ። በአፈናና ግድያ እድሜን ማራዝም እንጂ ህዝብ ያቀፈው የሰከነ ህይወት መኖር አይቻልም። ወያኔ ልብ ገዝቶ ለአንዲትና ሁሉ አቀፍ ለሆነች ኢትዮጵያ በመቆም ያፈረሰውን ማስተካከል እስካልቻለ ድረስ አወዳደቁ እንደ ሮም አወዳደቅ ነው የሚሆነው። የማስብ፤ የመናገር፤ የመጻፍና የመሰብሰብ ነጻነት ለህዝባችን በመስጠት ዘረኛነቱን ከራሱ ላይ እስካላወለቀ ድረስ ወያኔ በነፋስ እንደተነሳ የበረሃ አሽዋ መበተኑ አይቀርም።

Ethiopia - As African Tyrants Fall

By Alemayehu G. Mariam

The Invincible Dictators

Mohandas Karmachand Gandhi (The Mahatma or Great Soul) is today revered as a historical figure who fought against colonialism, racism and injustice. But he was also one of the greatest modern revolutionary political thinkers and moral theorists. While Nicolo Machiavelli taught tyrants how to acquire power and keep it through brute force, deceit and divide and rule, Gandhi taught ordinary people simple sure-fire techniques to bring down dictatorships. Gandhi learned from history that dictators, regardless of their geographic origin, cleverness, wealth, fame or brutality, in the end always fall:

“When I despair, I remember that all through history, the way of truth and love has always won. There have been tyrants and murderers, and for a time they seem invincible, but in the end, they always fall. Think of it, always.”

Last week, it was Tunisia’s Zine El Abidine Ben Ali’s turn to fall, and for the Tunisian people to get some respite from their despair. In the dead of night, Ben Ali packed his bags and winged out of the country he had ruled with an iron fist for 23 years to take up residence in Saudi Arabia where he was received with open arms and kisses on the cheeks. (Uganda’s bloodthirsty dictator Idi Amin also found a haven in Saudi Arabia until his death in 2003 at age 80.) Ben Ali’s sudden downfall and departure came as a surprise to many within and outside Tunisia as did the sudden flight of the fear-stricken Mengistu Hailemariam in Ethiopia back in 1991. When push came to shove, Mengistu, the military man with nerves of steel who had bragged that he would be the last man standing when the going got tough, became the first man to blow out of town on a fast plane to Zimbabwe. Such has been the history of African dictators: When the going gets a little tough, the little dictators get going to some place where they can peacefully enjoy the hundreds of millions of dollars they have stolen and stashed away in European and American banks.

The end for Tunisia’s dictator (but not his dictatorship which is still functioning as most of his corrupt minions remain in the saddles of power) came swiftly and surprised his opponents, supporters and even his international bankrollers. President Obama who had never uttered a critical word about Ben Ali was the first to "applaud the courage and dignity of the Tunisian people" in driving out the dictator. He added, “We will long remember the images of the Tunisian people seeking to make their voices heard.” Those memorable images will be imprinted in the minds of all oppressed Africans; and no doubt they will heed the President’s words and drive out the continent’s dictators to pasture one by one.

After nearly a quarter century of dictatorial rule, few expected Ben Ali to be toppled so easily. He seemed to be in charge, in control and invincible. Many expected the 75 year-old Ben Ali to install his wife or son in-law in power and invisibly pull the puppet strings behind the throne. But any such plans were cut short on December 17, 2010 when Mohamed Bouazizi, a 26-year old college graduate set himself on fire to protest the police confiscation of his unlicensed vegetable cart. Apparently, he was fed up paying “bakseesh” (bribe) to the cops. His death triggered massive public protests led by students, intellectuals, lawyers, trade unionists and other opposition elements. Bouazizi was transformed into a national martyr and the fallen champion of Tunisia’s downtrodden -- the unemployed, the urban poor, the rural dispossessed, students, political prisoners and victims of human rights abuses.

Bouazizi’s form of protest by self-immolation is most unusual in these turbulent times when far too many young people have expressed their despair and anger by strapping themselves with explosives and causing the deaths of so many innocent people. Bouazizi, it seems, chose to end his despair and dramatize to the world the political repression, extreme economic hardships and the lack of opportunity for young people in Tunisia by ending his own life in such a tragic manner. He must have believed in his heart that his self-sacrifice could lead to political transformation.

Truth be told, Tunisia is not unique among African countries whose people have undergone prolonged economic hardships and political repression while the leaders and their parasitic flunkies cling to power and live high on the hog stashing millions abroad. In Ethiopia, the people today suffer from stratospheric inflation, soaring prices, extreme poverty, high unemployment (estimated at 70 percent for the youth) and a two-decade old dictatorship that does not give a hoot or allows them a voice in governance (in May 2010, the ruling party “won” 99.6 percent of the seats in parliament). In December 2010, inflation was running at 15 percent (according to “government reports”), but in reality at a much higher rate. The trade imbalance is mindboggling: a whopping $7 billion in imports to $1.2 billion worth of exports in 2009-10. In desperation, the regime recently imposed price caps on basic food stuffs and began a highly publicized official campaign to tar and feather “greedy” merchants and businessmen for causing high prices, the country’s economic woes and sabotaging the so-called growth and transformational plan. Hundreds of merchants and businessmen have been canned and await kangaroo court trials for hoarding, price-gouging and quite possibly for global warming as well. Former World Bank director and recently retired opposition party leader Bulcha Demeksa puts the blame squarely on the ruling regime’s shoulders and says price controls are senseless exercises in futility: “I’m not so angry with the retailers and sellers. I’m angry with the government, because the government counts on its capability to control price. Prices cannot be controlled. It has been tried everywhere in the world and it has failed. Unless you make it a totally totalitarian society it is impossible to control prices.” (When a regime claims electoral victory of 99.6 percent, there is little room to dispute whether it is totalitarian.) Aggravating the economic crises are chronic problems of reliable infrastructure including unstable electricity supply, burdensome and multiple taxation and a generally unfriendly business environment.

Gandhi’s Contemporary Relevance in Resisting Dictatorships

Without firing a single shot, Gandhi was able to successfully lead a movement which liberated India from the clutches of centuries of British colonialism using nonviolence and passive resistance as a weapon. Gandhi believed that it was possible to nonviolently struggle and win against injustice, discrimination and abuse of basic human rights be it in caste-divided India or racially divided South Africa. Gandhi’s philosophy of nonviolence was based on the ancient Vedic (sacred writings of Hinduism) idea of “Ahimsa” which emphasizes the interconnection of all living things and avoidance of physical violence in human relations and in the relations between humans and other living things, notably animals. For Gandhi, Ahimsa principles also applied to psychological violence that destroys the mind and the spirit. He believed that to effectively deal with evil (be it colonialism, dictatorship, tyranny, hate, etc.) one must seek truth in a spirit of peace, love and understanding. One must undergo a process of self-purification to be rid of all forms of psychological violence including hatred, malice, bad faith, mistrust, revenge and other vices. He taught that one must strive to be open, honest, and fair, and accept suffering without inflicting it on others. Such was the basic idea of Gandhi’s “Satyagraha” or the pursuit of truth.

Dismantling Dictatorships in Africa

Ben Ali left Tunisia in a jiffy not because of a military or palace coup but as a result of a popular uprising that went on unabated for a month. Police officers are the latest to join in the street demonstrations and protests demanding an end to dictatorship and establishment of a genuine democratic government. But Ben Ali dictatorship is alive and well-entrenched in power. A few members of his old crew have been arrested or fired from their jobs, but Mohamed Ghannouchi, other ministers and power brokers are still doing what they have been doing for the last 23 years. To placate the public, token members of the opposition have been invited to join a transitional “unity government” pending elections in 60 days under constitutional provisions that favor Ben Ali’s Constitutional Democratic Rally Party (RCD). Those who led the uprising do not seem to have much voice or representation in the “unity” government. For now it seems that the RCD foxes guarding the hen house are buying time and making plans to finish off the hens. But the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry, and the best laid plans of Ben Ali’s lackeys may in the end fail and make way for a genuinely popular government. There are hopeful signs. For instance, informed observers note that there is a measure of solidarity and consensus among major opposition elements on such issues as democratic governance, human rights, release of political prisoners, democratic freedoms and the functioning of civil society groups.

The Tunisian people’s revolution provides practical insights into the prerequisites for dismantling dictatorships in Africa. The first lesson is that when dictatorships end, their end could come with a bang or a whimper, and without warning. Just a few weeks ago no one would have predicted that Ben Ali would be swept into the dust bin of history with such swiftness. Second, there is always the risk of losing the victory won by the people in the streets by a disorganized and dithering opposition prepared to draw out the long knives at the first whiff of power in the air. Third, when tyrants fall, the immediate task is to dismantle the police state they have erected before they have a chance to strike back. Their modus operandi is well known: The dictators will decree a state of emergency, impose curfews and issue shoot-to-kill orders to terrorize the population and crush the people’s hopes and reinforce their sense of despair, powerlessness, isolation, and fear. Obviously, this has not worked in Tunisia. After more than 100 protesters were killed in the streets, more seem to be coming. Fourth, it is manifest that Western support for African dictators is only skin deep. Ben Ali was toasted in the West as the great modernizer and bulwark against religious extremism and all that. The West threw him under the bus and “applauded” the people who overthrew him before his plane touched down in Saudi Arabia. Some friends, the West! Ultimately, the more practical strategy to successfully dismantle dictatorships is to build and strengthen inclusive coalitions and alliances of anti-dictatorship forces who are willing to stand up and demand real change. If such coalitions and alliances could not be built now, the outcome when the dictators fall will be just a changing of the guards: old dictator out, new dictator in.
The Tunisian people's revolution should be an example for all Africans struggling to breathe under the thumbs and boots of ruthless dictators. It is interesting to note that there was a complete news blackout of the Tunisian people’s revolution in countries like Ethiopia. They do not want Ethiopians to get any funny ideas. On November 11, 2005, Meles Zenawi defending the massacre of hundreds of people in the streets said, "This is not your run-of-the-mill demonstration. This is an Orange revolution [in Ukrane] gone wrong.” Ben Ali said the same thing until he found himself on a fast jet to Jeddah. From India to Poland to the Ukraine to Czechoslovakia and Chile decades-old dictatorships have been overthrown in massive acts of civil disobedience and passive resistance. There is no doubt dictators from Egypt to Zimbabwe are having nightmares from Tunisia’s version of a “velvet’ or “orange” revolution.

The Power of Civil Disobedience and Nonviolent Resistance: Dictators, Quit Africa!
In His “Quit India” speech in August 1942, Gandhi made observations that are worth considering in challenging dictatorships in Africa:

In the democracy which I have envisaged, a democracy established by non-violence, there will be equal freedom for all. Everybody will be his own master. It is to join a struggle for such democracy that I invite you today. Once you realize this you will forget the differences between the Hindus and Muslims, and think of yourselves as Indians only, engaged in the common struggle for independence…

I have noticed that there is hatred towards the British among the people. The people say they are disgusted with their behaviour. The people make no distinction between British imperialism and the British people. To them, the two are one. We must get rid of this feeling. Our quarrel is not with the British people, we fight their imperialism.”

For Africans, the quarrel is not and ought not be about ethnicity, nationality, race, gender, religion, language or region, but about the injustices, crimes and gross and widespread human rights violations committed by African dictators. As Gandhi has taught, dictators for a time appear formidable, strong, golden and invincible. But in reality they all have feet of clay. “Strength does not come from physical capacity. It comes from an indomitable will,” said Gandhi. The Tunisian people have showed their African brothers and sisters what indomitable will is all about when they chased old Ben Ali out of town. All Africans now have a successful template to use in ridding themselves of thugs, criminals and hyenas in designer suits and military uniforms holding the mantle of powe

ON THE BRAWL OVER THE NILE WATERS

January 1, 2011​
By: Seid Hassan seid.hassan@murraystate.edu

Note: This article can be considered as a rejoinder to the recently published commentaries made public by Messrs. Robele Ababya, Jawar Mohammed, Girma Kassa, and Asrat Abraham.

. INTRODUCTION AND PERSONAL OBSERVATION
I lived in Egypt for about five and a half years (from late 1979 to the first few months of 1984) as a political refugee doing my undergraduate studies at the American University in Cairo. Just like any stateless Ethiopian who escaped the Derg’s murder, my 5 ½ years of stay in Egypt were filled with many ups and some downs. Speaking about the downs, two of them stood out of all. One of the nauseating and vexing issues had to do with listening to the constant barrage of negative campaigns carried out against Ethiopia by the Egyptian government, in which we felt was a deliberate implantation of “natural enmity” between the peoples of the two countries into the minds of the Egyptian people. On the other side, Mengistu Haile Mariam, standing on Maskal Square, and while mounting the “Red Terror” campaign against his opponents, was smashing bottles filled with “blood” to demonstrate the fate that his opponents, Egypt included, was awaiting them. Mengistu’s madness aside, I wondered why Egypt could have found it useful to instigate enmity and intensify the conflicts between the two nations instead of being thankful to the gift that both God and Ethiopia were giving her- the waters if the Blue Nile. Amazingly, the enmity barrage and the constant negative campaign did not stop within the sphere of international politics. In fact, it was very irritating to me and other true Ethiopians who observed the constant enmity barrage hurled against Ethiopia (and not Mengistu H. Mariam). The whole affair used to be broadcast live on TV as a staple recitation of Egyptian religious leaders during the Holy Friday Prayers. The constant rancor was being recited by the religious leaders irrespective of the fact that Ethiopia was the country chosen by Prophet Mohammed (peace be upon him) when his companions needed protection and freedom from oppression and persecution. Never mind that, in recognition of the kindness that the Ethiopian king who saved his followers, the Prophet had offered the first funeral prayer in absentia for a Christian. Never mind that the Prophet himself is known to have said: “They were generous to our companions, so I wish to be generous to them in person….” Never mind that the Prophet himself is even known to have personally served them meals when a Christian delegation from Ethiopian churches visited Medina.

The other was the two kinds of discriminatory treatments the Ethiopian political refugees received while in Egypt. On the one hand, those of us who claimed to be Ethiopian were not received well whenever we presented ourselves within the Arabic diplomatic circles, in general, and the Egyptian diplomatic community and officials, in particular. On the other hand, one could observe an unbelievable friendly reception being extended to those who claimed to be non-Ethiopian – nearly all of them being members of Liberation Fronts – the TPLF followers and “delegates” included. The recognition they received was comparable to the diplomatic immunity and extra-territorial status which is only extended to those who are friendly or allied militaries, foreign heads of state, ambassadors and diplomatic agents. I cannot help but just cringe wondering how on earth we let such groups and individuals, who wandered around the capitals of the Middle East, claiming to be partly Arabs, that they don’t belong to Ethiopia, and that they were fighting to secede from Ethiopia, smuggling and selling priceless Ethiopian religious relics along the way, be our rulers!? This absurd reality aside, which speaks volumes about the current generation of Ethiopians, please allow me to make my first point here: that Mr. Zenawi’s accusation of Egypt for backing anti-government rebels is quite accurate for he speaks from his own practical experience. Moreover, the historical enmity between the two nations, a substantial portion of the hostility originating from Egypt and Ethiopia’s neighbors is real and despot leaders such Messrs. Mubarak and Zenawi have a built-in tendency to exploit it. For picking a fight against both traditional and concocted enemies is a tool used by dictatorial and illegitimate regimes who are seeking unity in a highly fractured society.

. ETHIOPIANS SHOULD BE UNITED WHEN IT COMES TO THE NILE BUT AVOID PLACATION
Given the deeply held unholy Egyptian bitter resentment against Ethiopia, what would democrats, who happen to disagree with the current regime, do if Egypt launches punitive actions against Ethiopia’s newly built projects? Would the democratic forces ally themselves with Mr. Zenawi, even though they know that he is a despicable despot and has committed several treasonous crimes against the interests of their beloved country, if Egypt happens to trigger havoc against Ethiopia? My answer: “All things considered, and when push comes to shove: You Betcha!” They do so irrespective of the fact that the deeply rooted and historical enmity is being orchestrated by Meles himself, or, as Jawar aptly stated it, they know that “Meles is ratcheting up the rhetorical confrontation mantle in order to gain popular support” - http://ethiomedia.com/augur/4233.html .. They do so not because they are convinced treasonous and allegedly genocidal Meles has overnight turned to be a patriot when he tells them, via Reuters, that “I am not worried that the Egyptians will suddenly invade Ethiopia….Nobody who has tried that has lived to tell the story… I don’t think the Egyptians will be any different and I think they know that.” Instead, they are angered by the carefully orchestrated deception and placation. They will defend Ethiopia and its interests because they are fed up with the unjust animosity that Egypt harbors against Ethiopia for too long. They do so because they are tired of witnessing Ethiopia’s sovereignty and rights being infringed by its traditional enemies. They do so because, the position taken by Ethiopia and the other upper Nile riparian countries is just- an equitable distribution of water sources. They do so because they don’t want to set a precedent- since allying with Egypt and stopping the construction of the projects would be tantamount to Ethiopia’s fate being decided by foreigner elements rather than its citizens. For some of us who strongly believe that Ethiopia is better off by building smaller dams and/or who detest the non-transparent manner by which projects are implemented, we do so because we just don’t want to “throw the baby out with the bath water.” We do so because…, well, we are placated (duped) by Meles’ merciless Machiavellian tactics. Help! Unless Ethiopians come to together and find ways to disentangle the web of traps that Ethiopia and its people have been logged into, their fates will be at the mercy of despots of Mr. Zenawi’s type.

WHY WAR (CONFLICT) BETWEEN EGYPT AND ETHIOPIA IS POSSIBLE
There are several factors which indicate to me that hostility between Egypt and Ethiopia is likely to continue and I will mention just a few of them to save space. First, a significant portion of the Egyptian populace erroneously believes (or is made to believe) that the Nile waters belong only to them. As a result, they believe that dam constructions in Ethiopia are tantamount to crossing the “red line.” Second, the growing political uprisings of the Nile delta provinces of Kafr al-Sheikh, Gharbiya, Alexandria, Giza and Marsa Matruh due to water shortages indicate that, as argued by Lutfi Radwan and others that Egypt was facing severe water shortages (about 20 billion cubic meters per year) even before power dams were built in Ethiopia. The causes of the water shortages are known to be many- some of them being population pressure, life-style changes, the effects of global warming, the gradual changes of crop patterns such as the increased production of water devouring crops of rice and sugar cane. This suggests that, as correctly articulated by Alya Kebiri, water, which is becoming increasingly scarce, is not “priced and managed properly. Proper pricing could have been more efficient and sustainable. Moreover, the Egyptian government monopolistically controls the distribution and management of water, with a lot of subsidization, bureaucratization and inefficiencies involved.” A government which is not willing to communicate with its people about the current realities will have a tendency to find scapegoats. Experts who have advised the government of Egypt to give up its production of some crops (or change some of the crop patterns) have indicated that the government is not willing to do so. Such irrational usage of water may have corrupted that nation and its farmers and such spoiled attitudes involve negative repercussions. Add to this the war mongering rhetoric of Mr. Sadat, the late president of Egypt and Butrous Butrous Ghali, the former Secretary General of the United Nations who played a role, in collaboration with the treasonous regime of Meles Zenawi, for the break-up of Ethiopia- both Egyptian leaders known to have said that "The next war in our region will be over the waters of the Nile, … “ Wasn’t it Egyptian Mr. Ismail Serageldin, who was vice-president of the World Bank, who told the world that future wars would be mostly about water? As John Vidal informs us, nations already are sparing over rivers and dams such as India and Pakistan over river Indus; China, Nepal, India and Bangladesh over the rivers originating from in the Himalayas; Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan over the Amu Daria and Syr Daria rivers; Argentina and Uruguay over the river Plate; Iraq and Syria over the Tigris; Israel, Palestine, and Jordan over the Jordan River watersheds and other water sources; Iraq and Iran over the Shatt al-Arab waterways; Botswana, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe, over Zambezi and its tributaries, etc.
But I seriously doubt that Egypt will invade Ethiopia for Egypt can create enough havoc by doing what it knows best – supporting disaffected insurgent groups and perhaps even using individual terrorists. If Mr. Zenawi knows that Egypt uses disaffected Ethiopian insurgent groups to attack Ethiopia, wouldn’t be wise and less costly for his government to deny Egypt and other Ethiopia’s enemies by finding solutions to the causes of (reasons) that such groups are forced to be used by Ethiopia’s traditional enemies? Unfortunately, this is not possible for it is not in the nature of undemocratic rulers like Mr. Zenawi and the TPLF/EPRDF to look inside themselves. They would rather opt for the ultimate placation of patriotic citizens. Let’s face it: the fact that I and other patriots, such as Messrs. Jawar Mohammed, Robele Ababya, Girma Kassa and others are calling for unity among Ethiopians when it comes to the Nile may indicate that the placation and Mr. Zenawi’s shrewd Machiavellian plans are already underway. Some of us had seen this ultimate placation coming for quite some time, and a precedent was already set during the Ethio-Eritrean war. The costs associated with the impending hostilities and placation, particularly in terms of treasure, would be incalculable. It is for this reason that I call upon politicians, intellectuals, political scientists and all patriot Ethiopians, to design mechanisms (responses) so that we are neither placated nor the hostilities get intensified, while at the same time standing together to protect Ethiopia’s rights to use its own waters.
Note: As soon as I begun disseminating the first draft of the above write-up, Professor Minga Negash, professor of accountancy at the Metropolitan State College of Denver and the University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa who has been following the issue for many years sent me a couple of important email messages. Below, I present to you one of the messages and I thank him for allowing me to share it with you.

"It is a well known fact that Egyptian policy towards Ethiopia is primarily driven by the politics of the Nile water. This policy goes back to the antiquities. TPLF's ill trained diplomats are incapable of understanding the historical complexities. As we have seen in the case of the Algiers Agreement they have also a poor understanding of international law. Egyptian support for the separation of Eritrea and now its alleged support for other separatists show the consistency of Egyptian foreign policy towards Ethiopia, and it can be explained in part by the politics of water. In other words, Mr. Zenawi is facing the same problem that his predecessors were facing.

“What makes TPLF's policy scandalous is Zenawi's Zenawi's letter to the ex foreign minister of Egypt, Boutros Boutros Galli to legitimize Eritrea's separation through the UN system. In addition to diminishing Ethiopia's profile in the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia's loss of its coastal territories gave Egypt the role of being the dominant naval power in the Red Sea. Egyptian support for Eritrea's policy towards Somalia is yet another evidence of reducing Ethiopia's influence on the Horn of Africa. TPLF's official scandals with regard to the Nile officially started in 1991. Ethiopia's useless foreign minister, Seyoum Mesfin bowed to the Egyptian demand for the removal of the CEO of the Valley Development Authority. In the confusion, confidential rain fall data was lost and some suspect that the data was stolen by Egypt through a student who was studying for his Masters degree in Belgium. TPLF then signed the infamous treaty with Egypt, which the Egyptians feel is a useful diplomatic weapon. Zenawi's poor understanding of water policy was rectified by the creation of a new regional organization that advocates for the equitable and fair sharing of the waters of Nile river system. The success of this organization has yet to be seen. This progress, however, is frustrated by another incoherent policy of the TPLF. According to some reports, Egypt is a beneficiary of TPLF's wholesale of farm lands to foreigners. The report suggests that the National Bank of Egypt has leased a large tract of agricultural land in the Afar region. Another report suggests that an Egyptian company has established a factory in Bahir Dar, the source of the Blue Nile. Zenawi's recent press statement is coming in the middle of these complex relationships between Egypt and Ethiopia."