Meles Zenawi and the deconstruction of Ethiopia

By Messay Kebede

My customary readers may wonder why my political writings increasingly focus on psychological analyses to the detriment of socioeconomic forces. Is it because in my mind psychological factors prevail over socioeconomic conditions? The answer is no unless certain circumstances lend importance to the personality of political leaders. Such is the case when state power falls in the hands of megalomaniac dictators. Only objective socioeconomic and political conditions can create situations that call for a specific rule. However, depending on the personality of leaders, the direction of change imparted by objective factors can be diverted toward idiosyncratic goals. Especially, to the extent that revolutions and wars shatter established institutions, they have the nasty habit of favoring the rise to power of megalomaniac individuals. Once in power, such personalities hijack the social movement and use it to strengthen their power. Their absolute control of state power means that political and economic decisions are taken and implemented with the sole view of satisfying their idiosyncratic goals, chiefly their determination to retain the control of absolute power by all means. In this condition, the understanding of the psyche of dictators is crucial for political struggle. My assumption is that this is exactly the case with Meles’s rule of Ethiopia.

Many Ethiopians still wonder why Meles is uncontrollably seized with the desire to commit actions whose sole purpose is to offend Ethiopians or cripple the country. Among such actions are his routine assaults on Ethiopian nationalism together with his promotion of ethnic nationalisms, the ceding of Ethiopian territories to Sudan, the persistent determination to humiliate opposition leaders, an educational policy that values quantity and politicization over skill and professionalism, and the policy of leasing fertile lands to foreign firms at the expense of Ethiopian peasants and the national progress of agriculture. I will cite as yet another recent manifestation of his hatred of Ethiopia his support––assuming that he is not the initiator—to the decision not to erect a statue to Haile Selassie for his decisive contribution to the creation of African unity.

There is no doubt that some of the mentioned measures are designed to protect Meles’s power. For instance, leasing land to foreign firms provides him with the money he needs to keep his repressive apparatus satisfied, just as the ceding of territories to Sudan buys the friendship of a strategically important neighbor. Likewise, the promotion of ethnic division is how he implements the divide-and-rule strategy characteristic of all dictatorial regimes. However, these measures do not look very rational in that they further aggravate an already brewing discontent, and so can contribute to a brutal end of his regime.

In fact, the adoption of a nationalist position would have been a better way to protect Meles’s power. History teaches us that, to say in power, dictators utilize the divide-and-rule strategy in combination with a nationalist zeal, which gives them a popular support, even if it does not last. Given the resentment that it generates, one wonders whether the method of shielding power by ceding territories and leasing land to foreign companies is a smart choice.

On the other hand, there are acts not connected with power calculus that Meles commits just for the sheer purpose of upsetting Ethiopians. Thus, dismantling opposition forces is certainly a way of fighting for his power, but not the determination to humiliate their leaders by the imposition of degrading requests. Similarly, the characterization of the Ethiopian flag as a trash does not help him strengthen his power. Nor are his numerous demeaning statements, as when he said that the failure of his policy would mean that Ethiopia was not meant to be. His obvious complicity in the decision to deny Haile Selassie the honor of a statue is just a recent example of actions whose sole purpose is to offend Ethiopians.

All this brings us to the enigmatic question of knowing why Meles does not rule the country in the accustomed way of dictators, that is, as extremely jealous of his power, but also as an ardent defender of the national interest, even if his definition of national interest favors his own dictatorship. As already suggested, normal dictators want to be loved by the people they rule so as to give their power a popular basis. Given Meles’s obsession with power, how is then one to understand the undermining of his own popularity by such senseless anti-Ethiopian deeds?

One way of resolving the dilemma of a dictator who undermines his own popularity is to suggest that Meles has a deep hatred of Ethiopia and of whatever promotes the interests and well-being of its people. In a previous article posted on various Ethiopian websites and titled “Meles’s Shame and the Dead-End of Hatred,” I have tried to decipher the enigma of a dictator set on unpopularity by suggesting that the shame of his family’s close collaboration with the Italian colonial forces had evolved very early into a hatred of Ethiopia. Despising and damaging Ethiopia, notably through the diabolization of the architect of modern Ethiopia, namely, the Amhara elite, is his manner of removing the shame, the assumption being that there is really no betrayal if what is supposedly betrayed is worthless to begin with.

If Meles has such a deep hatred of Ethiopia, the question that comes to mind is why he is struggling to consolidate his power instead of simply destroying Ethiopia, for instance by encouraging secessionist groups and triggering bloody ethnic conflicts. Though my previous article raised the issue, it did not directly deal with it for the sake of brevity. The time has come to resolve the puzzle of Meles hanging to the state power of a country that he despises and even scoring some accomplishments, which of course either remain superficial or come with heavy social costs.

Undoubtedly, the key to the puzzle is Meles’s craving for power. Not only is he obsessed with power, but also his hatred finds no better way to vent itself than to keep Ethiopia on life support through his divisive and weakening policy. Indeed, what is more gratifying for a soul tormented with hatred than to prolong the agony of the object of his hatred as long as possible? In other words, his love for power occasionally overrides his hatred while also providing an outlet for it.

Here a restriction should be introduced, which emanates from the very contradictions of a tormented soul. As much as Meles wants to demean and hurt Ethiopia, his passion for power has grown into megalomania, mostly as a result of an easy victory against all his opponents. To his craving for power is now added the belief in his own grandeur and unique destiny. Yes, he hates Ethiopia, but he is also possessed with power and burns with the dream of becoming a great ruler, especially in the eyes of Westerners. So that, hatred and megalomania combine to inspire a deconstructive/constructive political project.

Let there be no misunderstanding. Meles is as committed as ever not to do anything that seems to promote Ethiopia because of the painful consequences on him. He has accordingly decided to erase Ethiopia as we know her and recreate another Ethiopia, this time of his own design. The deconstructive and constructive project thus solves, it is true temporarily, the contradiction between his hatred for the country and his love for power and megalomania: deconstruction satisfies his hatred; construction his megalomania. In effect, he is now promoting a project called Ethiopian renaissance, which he couples with the ideology of developmental state considered as the proven instrument to achieve prosperity.

What we need to understand here is that when Meles exhorts Ethiopians to “achieve the vision for Ethiopia’s Renaissance,” he means the Ethiopia a la Meles, that is, Ethiopia made suitable for his absolute rule and for the pillage by his cronies and party followers. The design excludes all those who fight for a democratic Ethiopia in which people endowed with real rights decide about what is best for them and achieve national unity as equal and free both in their individual capacities and ethnic belonging. Instead of Ethiopians realizing integrative unity and exercising sovereignty, Meles’s project sees them as puppets of a deconstructive project inspired by hatred and megalomania.

To clarify further Meles’s project of Ethiopian Renaissance, we can add that it is tantamount to a child playing with a new toy. Unfortunately, the parallel is misleading for even a child cares for his/her toy: he/she may mistreat the toy, but he/she will not allow others to do so. A better comparison would be land clearing by which you bulldoze whatever has grown naturally for the purpose of planting seeds of your own choice. We know the danger of land clearing when it ignores the conditions of the soil and the well-being of the local population, especially when the land is given to foreign interests. What used to be a fertile land can become barren if such cares are missing.

Since Ethiopia is the object of a resentful policy, Meles cannot provide the care necessary to transform Ethiopia into a flourishing and integrating country. Even if we assume that he is determined to eradicate poverty, the assumption remains far-fetched, not to say utterly unlikely, because whatever his dream of greatness leads him to want is immediately defeated by a forceful resurgence of his hatred. Thus, there is a constant oscillation between hatred and the dream of grandeur: no sooner is a project devised than it is spoiled by the hostility of hatred.

What is more, Meles does not have the people necessary to implement any serious policy of development. In order to strengthen his dictatorial power, he has surrounded himself with yes men, who are irremediably incompetent and profusely self-serving. He has no choice but to reward them by closing his eyes to the widespread use of illegal means of enrichment. Also, the failure of his economic policy together with his tendency to conspire against the nation can only intensify anger, thereby making him unable to mobilize people for any significant national project.

This is to say that the clearing of Ethiopia increasingly looks like a land devastated by the effect of toxic chemicals administered by a spiteful agronomist. Repressive means can help Meles stay in power for a while, but his attempt to reduce Ethiopia to something fashionable at will for the gratification of his tortured mind will never see the light of day. He will remain stuck with repressive methods because his hatred and his hunger for unlimited power always end up by defeating his dream of grandeur.

(Prof. Messay Kebede can be reached at mkebede1@udayton.edu)

TPLF Inc. Survives on repression and not public trust

BY Aklog Birara, PhD

Those of us who enjoy freedom from constant purges, harassment, intimidation and fear need to remind ourselves each day that the Ethiopian people continue to suffer from poor and repressive governance-induced hyperinflation, hunger and malnourishment that is legendary, growing unemployment that drives thousands out of the country each month, glaring wealth and income inequality, pervasive corruption and illicit outflow of resources, dispossession and dislocation of hundreds of thousands from their homes and ancestral lands and massive transfer of the pillars of the Ethiopian economy to foreigners and a selected few ethnic elites. The dispossession of the Ethiopian people from sources of livelihood: urban and rural lands, waters, minerals and other critical assets, is the core issue of the day.

The thesis in this commentary is that TPLF Inc. has lost the trust and confidence of the Ethiopian people. There is very little evidence to show that it is ready or willing to reform itself. Nor is there any indication that the donor and diplomatic community appreciate the dangers the country faces in terms of its long-term stability and security and the welfare of its people. What could be more dangerous than the wholesale transfer of the pillars of the economy to foreigners and ethnic allies? What could be more telling than the continued purging and removal of patriotic and democratic leaning Ethiopians from their work? Accordingly, the task of supporting the Ethiopian people in their time of need is urgent; and rests with all who accept the dangers ahead and are ready, committed and willing to sacrifice time, resources and creativity. We cannot afford to wait until things fall apart completely and irreversibly. We need to move from talk to action. Action must be rooted in Ethiopia with the Ethiopian people who bear the brunt of repressive governance and economic mismanagement.

It is up to us

The outside world is unlikely to respond to us until we lead the effort. In commentary nine of this series, I showed how aid has done little to boost the capabilities of the Ethiopian people including smallholders. Close to 13 million Ethiopians depend on some form of international emergency food aid. A World Bank study last year showed that more than 5 million Ethiopians depend entirely on remittances. Thus, at minimum, 20 percent of 90 million Ethiopians depend entirely on some form of assistance from outside. Nationally, 21 percent are chronically unemployed. It means that growth has benefitted the few; but has not produced employment for most. At minimum 41 percent of the population is not part of the development process. With per capita income of $350 and with 46 percent wishing to immigrate, it is not hard to suggest that the mythical growth propagated by TPLF Inc. is not meaningful to most Ethiopians. It will not be until and unless Ethiopians enjoy a semblance of freedom to hold their government officials accountable.

I and many others who care deeply about the future of the country have provided analytical tools showing the dangers of the current system for all Ethiopians regardless of ethnic or religious or demographic affiliation. The mess affects each and every one of us, and future generations. A classified piece written from former Ambassador to Ethiopia, Donald Yamamoto, to his government, entitled “US knew but ignored abuses by Ethiopia’s Zenawi,” released by Wiki-leaks reinforces the depth of dispossession and disempowerment that defies the imagination on which I have written as have others. Although the leak refers to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs where “hacks” of TPLF Inc. dominate policies and programs everywhere, the problem of purging and replacing those purged by ethnic and party loyalists has been standard practice for 21 years. It is part of systemic dispossession and dismantlement of anything and everything that is Ethiopian or national.

In February 2009, Ambassador Yamamoto confirmed and questioned the recruitment and staffing of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs—one of the most corruption-ridden institutions of the country—by “230 new trainees,” as part of TPLF Inc. capacity” building process. “Of the 230 new hires, all are party officials, and receive Ministry financed housing and salaries at levels double the prevailing rates of current Ministry of Foreign Affairs officers.” This practice is the norm and has been the norm for several years, especially in most sensitive institutions such as Defense, Intelligence and Police. How else would a general afford a mansion or luxury building that costs 45 to 90 million Birr in Bole?

The undermining of Ethiopia’s national cadre of competent and meritorious civil servants that Robert Calderisi identified in his book, “The Trouble with Africa,” 3 years ago is now complete. It is done systematically and deliberately to rob the country of public service oriented individuals and replace them with party hacks. TPLF Inc. does this through the Business Practices-Reengineering (BPR) process. It may as well be called a cleansing process, a system designed to purge those whose tribal and party loyalty is questionable. Its discriminatory nature is obvious not only to former Ambassador Yamamoto but also other foreigners who work in Ethiopia and with Ethiopians. BPR grades officers on the basis of ethnic and party loyalty, with “members of the ruling party and are fully loyal receiving an “A” automatically regardless of qualification, merit and competency. In contrast, “Those perceived to oppose the ruling party or its platform are given a “D” and terminated from their jobs.”

Dispossession and alienation from private assets such as homes, lands and other personal properties, and assessments (gimigema) that lead to purges from jobs amount to the same thing. Simply put, they erode Ethiopian citizenship. They lead to poverty and immigration. Donors and the diplomatic community observe these travesties; and occasionally critique TPLF Inc. But, they do not dare to challenge TPLF Inc. to change its ways. As explained in the previous commentary, donors and the diplomatic cannot change the policies or programs of the regime. Only Ethiopians can change the system; and they can if they pull their resources together.

What conclusion did Ambassador Yamamoto reach?

The former Ambassador concludes that, “While the US government may have had influence over the Ethiopian government to induce positive reform up until, and soon after, the 2005 elections, it has lost all such influence since then.” If this is the case, why continue to offer the repressive regime with close to $1 billion per year. The bottom line is this. Long-term, the US shoots itself in the foot by ignoring an unfolding human tragedy that may lead to civil conflict and instability if it does not take bold steps now and pressure TPLF Inc. to entertain a peaceful transition. We are thus left with the only viable option that will compel the US and others to stand firmly on the side of the Ethiopian people.

This option is to set aside minor and non-strategic differences and take collective and practical action on the diplomatic front while supporting those who struggle for justice, the rule of law and representative governance within the country. Both are essential. The more we do this, the more likely it is that we will win friends. It is fear of the alternative that compelled Ambassador Yamamoto to warn, “We must remain mindful to explain our common stability objectives (the premium donors and the diplomatic community use as rationale in support of dictators) clearly to the Government of Ethiopia and EPRDF and to avoid overreaching for too drastic of reforms lest the ruling party opt to choose survival over engagement.” It is the same reasoning the US and others deploy in Syria where close to 10,000 innocent people have been massacred by their own government.

It does not take much to conclude that the country is under more stress than ever before in its history. Dispossession is now universal. The Ethiopian people have less say and power compared to foreigners who own a large chunk of the pillars of the economy and ethnic elite that plunders the society each day. Equally unprecedented is gaping inequality, corruption and illicit outflow. All these and more are linked together and are indicators of repressive and corrupt-ridden governance that will let at our own peril.

Anchor the struggle in Ethiopia and embolden Ethiopians

It is the above reality that leads me to suggest again and again that the vast majority of the Ethiopian people reject TPLF Inc. It is also this that prompts me to argue that any struggle for a better future for the Ethiopian people must be anchored in and led by civil society and political groups within Ethiopia. Those of us who sit on the sidelines must be persuaded that we are losing a country and all that this implies. The purging of Ethiopians from their jobs is symbolically the purging of competent and meritorious persons from any segment of the society. In the area of land giveaway and transfers of wealth, no amount of wealth would recompense such a loss for generations to come. TPLF Inc. is now in the business of mortgaging the entire country in the name of development. Even the last forested and treed places in the country such as churches and monasteries are no longer sacrosanct.

It happens to Waldiba

What responsible government would allow or encourage the deforestation and desecration of lands around churches and monasteries such as Waldiba in the name of development and transfers lands and forests to investors? What is happening in Waldiba, Gambella, Ogaden, Afar and others erode trust and confidence in the regime. It does not seem to care. A recent example on corruption shows that confidence and trust in TPLF Inc. and its associates is practically zero.

I should like to remind the reader that graft, bribery, mispricing, embezzlement and illicit outflow are possible in the absence of oversight. Independent oversight is virtually impossible when there are no nationally-oriented opposition parties, independent civil society organizations, academics and journalists. For this reason, TPLF Inc. does anything it wishes and gets away with ‘murder.” Here is the truth. “In Ethiopia today, it is argued, all civil society organizations, opposition political parties, individuals and groups in private enterprise, and other groups are described as rent-seeking, while in contrast, EPDRDF (run by TPLF Inc.), the ruling party, is claimed to be the only one which has developmental credentials.”

This attribution of “rent-seeking” to all opponents is granted to deceive, and establish grounds for harassment, intimidation and fear; and to ensure that there is no competition. Here is part of the menu of evidence that says it all. In its seminal report last year, Global Financial Integrity (GFI) lamented that “The people of Ethiopia are being bled dry. No matter how hard they try to fight their way out of absolute destitution and poverty, they will be swimming upstream against the current of illicit leakage.” The reader will recall that, in 2009 alone, Ethiopia lost “US$3.26 billion in illicit outflow, exceeding both the value of its total exports and the total development aid it received that year.” You will agree with me that it is not leaders or members of “civil society organizations, opposition political parties” academics, journalists or other persons who did this. Critics are in jail or have been forced out of the country. Opposition political parties do not have the freedom to operate in the country let alone own businesses and steal from the society.

Top leaders and supporters of TPLF Inc. do not like people with integrity. Anyone who speaks the truth against the system is an enemy of the party and state and goes to jail if not worse. Truth and patriotism, justice and freedom and other indicators of good governance are inimical to TPLF Inc. This is why competent people are purged from universities and ministries all the time. As a result, TPLF Inc. puts the argument upside down and accuses opponents of “rent-seeking.” The greatest “rent-seekers” are those who run the merged state—ethnicity, party and government. It is they who have perfected political capture and made it an instrument in the accumulation of incomes and wealth nationally. It is a business; and businesses will do anything and everything to thwart competition. At least, there is some form of regulation and ethic that guides and governs private businesses. In the case of TPLF Inc. there is nothing that contests it. Any contest or any telling of the truth will land you in jail unless you flee for your life. This cannot go on.

Fabricated growth data

In “A Climate of Corruption: Ethiopian edition,” Janice Winter of Investigative Journalism captured mistrust and lack of confidence in the Meles Government when she said this. “Conveniently for Meles, no independent institutions in Ethiopia exists, to check the veracity” of anything, including “of government high growth rates” or corruption or gross human rights violations including killings and rapes. She continues to suggest that, “Indeed, the average growth for Meles’ entire 20 year rule is less than 5 percent (below the African average of 6 percent.” Ordinary Ethiopians know this better than Diaspora tourists who see glitz and accept it as structural change in the economy. Each and every day, Ethiopians live with “hyperinflation, widespread unemployment, a stagnant private sector and corruption.”

Here is one critical point that I would like the reader to take. One of the casualties in Ethiopia today is the truth. Top officials of TPLF Inc. fabricate untruth like General Motors fabricates cars. The TPLF Inc. high growth phenomenon is part of the untruth factory; as is the fabrication that anyone who dissents is a terrorist. In 2005, the regime stole the election after it lost decisively and explained to the world that it had won. By any definition, fraudulent electoral outcomes are an outcome of corruption and lies.

Security, police and defense forces are deployed in parts of the country where there is potential dissent and threat with little or no differentiation. The Anuak killed or massacred in Gambella, Somali girls and women raped, indigenous people forced from their ancestral homes in the Lower Omo Valley, Tigreans kept numb and silent in Mekele and elsewhere, Amhara speaking residents in the Southern part of the country forced to leave their homes and property and Christian churches razed to the ground, Oromo students harassed, jailed and killed for seeking fair treatment and justice—these and more violations are justified by TPLF Inc. in the name of peace, security and the constitution. For almost 21 years, it has gone uncontested in pitying one group against another; in assaulting one group in isolation from the other and so on. The rest of us watch a dishonest and dishonorable group do this day after day. My question is simple. Don’t you find these as elements of justifiable cause for principled unity and action in unison? I do. They actions by TPLF Inc. erode public confidence and trust in their government and its officials at any level and in any region.

On Yekatit 1, 2004 Ethiopian calendar, Shiferaw Shigute, President of Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples (SNNP), was accused of corruption and embezzlement. This is not surprising as such occurrences from urban and rural land sales and leases, permits and trade are routine. What is stunning is what he said. He admitted that he and Azeb, Meles Zenawi’s spouse and one of the wealthiest persons in Ethiopia today, colluded and stole millions of dollars in illegal trade of coffee, Ethiopia’s main export. Mispricing of coffee and illegal trafficking and trade in coffee and other commodities are among the major sources of illicit outflow. Meles Zenawi was forced to reverse the decision against Shiferaw. Family comes first; and not justice or the rule of law. The law and constitution are manipulated to serve an unjust and corrupt system.

In a similar vein, Mr. Omet Obang, Regional President, Gambella, was accused of ‘murders and massacres’ of his own people. He said, “If I go to jail for crimes against humanity, Meles Zenawi should to. It is he who gave me weapons and orders.” Obang did not go to jail and Meles remains in power. This is how the system works; and how corrupt it is.

Reports of endemic corruption and recurring illicit outflow of funds and other resources by UNDP, Transparency International and most prominently, GFI prompted global outrage and concern among donors and diplomats in Addis Ababa. The Ethiopian government was forced to hire an outside firm to conduct investigations of corruption. The country’s so-called Anti-Corruption Commission that has absolutely no teeth hired a Tanzanian firm, Kilimanjaro International, to investigate corruption, a cancer that has infected the entire system. The firm was financed by the World Bank and cost almost half a million dollars. The firm interviewed and surveyed 6,500 persons and institutions. To the dismay of TPLF Inc. officials but not to Ethiopian society, the investigation concluded five of 27 government institutions are the most corrupt across the entire country.

I should like the reader to remember that all state institutions cannot be alike. They play different roles. Some possess authority and power that allow them access to resources; and others not. Some have direct effect on the day to day lives of people and others do not. The five most corrupt institutions of government identified are the following:

1. Courts. In a country bound by laws and not political allegiance, courts adjudicate matters fairly, justly, impartially and with the highest level of integrity. The institutions that adjudicate the law and regulatory system are, themselves, soiled in corrupt practices. Officials have been reduced to rationalizing and defending a tainted system that cannot be saved without radical reform. Impartiality and justice are only dreams in Ethiopia today.

2. Police. In countries where institutions are de-politicized and de-ethnicized, public service and security are fundamental and observed by police. This is not the case in Ethiopia today. The police serve as instruments of harassment, intimidation and fear. They do what they are told regardless of innocence.

3. Customs. Licenses, import and export permits duties, trade transactions, fees and so on depend on ethnic and party affiliation. Thus, customs officials and their allies at the top have unlimited opportunities to game the system. It is who you know and who you ally with that matters most. No wonder that customs is one the most corrupt institutions in Ethiopia today.

4. Local and Regional Administration. Urban and rural lands, commodity marketing, the provision of services such as seeds and fertilizers are among the major sources of corruption and abuse of public trust. The SNNP and Gambella offer examples of massive collusion. Nothing worthwhile occurs without some insider deals in local and regional administration in Ethiopia today.

5. Municipalities. Does anyone know any urban place in the country where permits to acquire a piece of land, build something of value and licenses to operate something, to initiate a business and so does not require some form of bribe. This is why Freedom House and the Wall Street Journal concluded last year that the cost of doing business in Ethiopia is among the highest in the world today.

Are there institutions that are relatively free of corruption? Yes; they include Ethiopian Airlines, the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia, the National Bank of Ethiopia and the Postal service. I should caution that it is not easy to steal from an airline. Is it? It is not easy to steal from a commercial bank at least directly unless you rob it. By the way, the government robs banks by forcing them to lend to it. The National Bank has become a piggy bank that prints money and contributes to hyperinflation and the erosion of the Birr everywhere in the country. These relatively corruption-free institutions are not the real service interface between the government and its citizens. The five are. So, it really does not make sense to compare apples and oranges.

Given the mix of the survey, the Tanzanian outfit concludes wrongly that corruption is 78th in the hierarchy of national crisis. In my assessment, corruption that leads directly to illicit outflow is at the top of national crisis. Further, it is not sufficient to confine investigation on corruption to money and related concerns. Equally important is political corruption that has led and continues to lead to the rigging of elections. TPLF Inc. ‘won 99.6 percent’ of the votes in 2010 by barring others from competition; and purges. The ‘silent violence’ against dissidents, opposition political parties, civic organizations, teachers, students and others is a form of corruption.

The forced relocation of 1.5 million Ethiopians from their ancestral lands by 2015 is an abusive of authority and therefore a form of corruption. TPLF Inc. does not allow opponents to offer viable options; affected citizens have no say in the matter. Continued exodus of hundreds of thousands of Ethiopians from their country in search of alternatives abroad emanates from a corrupt and repressive system that does not allow them to prosper within their own homeland. More directly, corruption and illicit outflow of massive amounts of resources out of the country deprives communities, the society and the country the investment capital they need to expand productive capacity and capabilities: build quality schools, health facilities, safe drinking water, and access roads to rural communities, factories that produce fertilizers, basic consumer goods and so on. It is when the structure of the economy changes dramatically that hyperinflation can be contained Corruption and illicit outflow is therefore a tax on this and the coming generation. It is principally the system that produces and tolerates it.

Given the above, how and why would people trust the TPLF Inc. government, its officials and institutions that are corrupt and tolerate corruption; that lie to them that they are better off today than before it took power 21 years ago while compelling them to accept lies as truths; and that repress them while telling the world that these are done in the name of peace, national security, anti-terrorism and development? I am convinced that lies are an integral part of the ethos of TPLF Inc. and will not change until the entire system changes.

Governments with moral and ethical leadership change when they lose the confidence and trust of their citizens. TPLF Inc. and its civil servants seem to be both arrogant and oblivious or are in complete denial that they are unloved and unwanted. Berhanu Kifetew, the head of the Anti-corruption Commission confirmed this when he dismissed the modest findings and conclusions by the firm he helped hire. He said the study lacked “analytical and statistical depth.” This is a pattern. TPLF Inc. reached the same conclusion on killings and massacres following the 2005 elections; the same conclusions following the massacres in Gambella and the Ogaden.

The reader should never doubt that Ethiopia and the Ethiopian people are hurting big time from corruption and recurring illicit outflow of resources. The reader should not doubt that the beneficiaries of the system cannot possibly change the corrupt and repressive system that keeps them employed. The reader should not doubt for a second that corruption and illicit outflow undermine public trust and confidence in the government, its institutions and officials.

It is up to those—within and outside the country–who love the country and respect the hopes and aspirations of all of the Ethiopian people, to work in unison and to leave a legacy of peaceful transformation anchored in Ethiopia and owned by the Ethiopian people that future generations would recite and the world would admire.

3/07/2012

Ethiopia: From dictatorship to democracy By Alemayehu G Mariam,

By Alemayehu G Mariam,
Mahatma Gandhi first formulated the iron law of history for dictators: “There have been tyrants and murderers and for a time they seem invincible but in the end, they always fall - think of it, always.”Just in the past year we have seen Gandhi’s words come to pass as dictators fell like dominoes in the Arab Spring: Ben Ali in Tunisia got the boot after 24 years. Hosni Mubarak was thrown out and hauled into court after 32 years. Moamar Gadhafi in Libya was literally dragged out of the sewers, paraded in the streets and and executed with his own golden pistol. Ali Saleh ruled Yemen for 33 years and went into exile after suffering disfiguring burns and shrapnel injuries. Bashir al-Assad is running a slaughter house in Syria, and he will surely face the same fate as his brother dictators.

Sub-Sahara Africa has also seen its share of fallen dictators. Laurent Gbagbo of Cote d’Ivoire was collared holed up in his palace and turned over to the International Criminal Court to face charges of crimes against humanity. Mamadou Tandja of Niger tried to cling to power by ignoring constitutional term limits, but Niger’s military ousted him. Tandja’s principal opponent was subsequently elected president. Recently, the 85 year-old Abdoulaye Wade of Senegal tried to steal a third term in office and faced a firestorm of public protest. He ran but failed to win a majority, and now faces a runoff with the certainty of civil strife to follow should he “win”.
In January 2011, I wrote a weekly column entitled, “After the Fall of African Dictatorships” and posed three questions: “What happens to Africa after the mud walls of dictatorship come tumbling down and the palaces of illusion behind those walls vanish? Will Africa be like Humpty Dumpty (a proverbial egg) who “had a great fall” and could not be put back together by “all the king’s horses and all the king’s men”? What happens to the dictators?” I thought I had a ready an answer to the last question, though not for the first two:
When the people begin to beat their drums and circle the mud walls, Africa’s dictators will pack their bags and fly off like bats out of hell…[Some of the dictators] will hide out in the backyards of their brother dictators… [or] remain fugitives from justice … The rest will fade away into the sunset to quietly enjoy their stolen millions… The fact is that the morning after the fall of Africa’s dictators, the people will be stuck with a ransacked economy, emptied national banks, empty store shelves, torture chambers full of political prisoners and dithering and power-hungry opposition leaders jockeying for position in the middle of political chaos.
Who Could Put Ethiopia Together After the Fall?
What could happen to Ethiopia after the mud walls of dictatorship come tumbling down? Will Ethiopia have a great fall and shatter into pieces? Will Ethiopia face Libya’s fate? Egypt’s? Tunisia’s? Or will she face Syria’s fate? No one can predict with certainty, but one can be sure that Ethiopia’s destiny is not as preordained as her current rulers would like to remind us: “If Ethiopia disintegrates, so be it. It was not meant to be.”
What can be said with absolute certainty is that there is a decisive role to be played by all Ethiopians and friends of Ethiopia in shaping a post-dictatorship Ethiopia. Individual Ethiopians, groups, civic society and independent press institutions, pro-democracy activists, human rights advocates, political parties and grassroots organizations can come together to discuss and spearhead dialogue and debate on Ethiopia’s transition from one man, one party dictatorship to genuine multiparty democracy grounded in the rule of law. If Ethiopians are to have hope of a better future and a fair chance at fulfilling their destiny and secure the blessing of liberty for themselves and for posterity, they will have to come together, work collaboratively, discuss differences civilly, think creatively, deal with each other honestly, respectfully and forthrightly, negotiate unconditionally, bargain considerately, speak candidly, communicate openly, defend the truth fearlessly, approach their differences open-mindedly and accept the judgment of the people unquestioningly and respectfully.
The Ethiopian National Transition Council (ENTC)
Recently, a group of grassroots advocates has taken the challenge of thinking through and charting possible transitional courses for a democratic Ethiopia after the inevitable collapse of the mud walls of dictatorship in that country. The Ethiopian National Transition Council (ENTC) seeks to mobilize and engage Ethiopians from all walks of life in the dialogue and debate over how to transition Ethiopia from dictatorship to democracy. Its declared aim is to “facilitate the process of collaboration, consensus building, networking and information dissemination” to diverse stakeholders in Ethiopian society. ENTC is not affiliated with any political party nor does it have any political ambitions beyond grassroots advocacy for democratic governance and respect for basic human rights. Its ambition is to become an independent and all-inclusive collaborative forum for pro-democracy civic advocacy and activism with the agenda of helping to establish a free, democratic, peaceful and prosperous Ethiopia.
One of the individuals in the forefront of this effort is Dr. Fiseha Eshetu. Fiseha is an extraordinary young Ethiopian with a peerless record of achievement in Ethiopian higher and technical education. In 1991, he planted the seeds for what was later to become Unity University, the first and largest privately owned and fully accredited institution of higher learning in Ethiopia to be given full accreditation. In 2008, after years of fighting government regulation and fending off official efforts calculated to undermine private higher education, Fiseha sold his beloved university and went into exile. (I have extensively commented on the subject previously in my commentaries “Ethiopia: Indoctri-Nation” and “Ethiopia: Education Unbanned!”.)
Fiseha is an unlikely person to lead such an effort, or even to be so civically engaged. He openly admits that he was one of those Ethiopians who stayed away from politics because he believed business and politics do not mix well. Though he witnessed corruption, maladministration and abuse of power in Zenawi’s regime, he would hear, see or speak no evil. He says he reached a point where he “just did not care” and even “hated being Ethiopian”. But in time he was gripped with a “guilty conscience” witnessing the suffering of the people every day. He could no longer watch from the sidelines and hide behind a veil of self-serving neutrality. In the depth of despair, apathy and bitterness, he says he found strength in the “truth and his faith in God.” He says he has taken on this task of helping to transition Ethiopia from dictatorship to democracy because he believes he has a moral duty to stand up and speak up and help his countrymen and women to his “last penny”. But he readily confesses: “I would rather be in higher education training hundreds of thousands of young Ethiopians for Ethiopia’s future.”
Listening to Fiseha, one is disarmed by his gentle and obliging candor and openness. His words are plain and unguarded; and he totally lacks the calculated ambiguity of professional politicians and knavish obscurity of pundits. He speaks his mind without mincing words. His public statements echo and resonate Gandhi’s ideas about “Satyagraha” (truth force). He says, “The reason we are one hundred percent we will succeed in our efforts is based on two things. First, everything we do is based on truth. Second, we believe in God.” There is also something “Mandelan” about his outlook. He keeps repeating: “For my country, I will work with anyone to bring about democratic change in Ethiopia.” The great Nelson Mandela taught, “If you want to make peace with your enemy, you have to work with your enemy. Then he becomes your partner.” Fiseha says ENTC will reach out to anyone without preconditions or stipulations as long as they are willing to work and help transition Ethiopia from dictatorship to democracy. He has the faith of men on a mission: “If every Ethiopian sacrificed 1 per cent, we can bring about massive change in 6 months. We need to develop a mentality of public service.” In the end, he has begun this odyssey out of love of country, honor, duty and public service, not the morbid and joyless love of power: “We have no interest or aspirations for political power. Our wish is to help finish this transition to democracy as quickly as possible and return to our chosen professions.”
Transition From Dictatorship
The road from dictatorship to democracy in Ethiopia will be challenging but not impossible. What will the transition to democracy look like? When the mud walls of dictatorship crumble in Ethiopia and the veil of secrecy and hype is lifted, two facts will stand stark naked. First, the people will find out that their national treasury is empty and the country is teetering on the brink of bankruptcy and crushing international debt. Second, they will find out that in the absence of durable democratic institutions and procedures, they could face a period of significant political instability, tension and conflict. But to better understand the challenges of that transition -- that moment in time between the end of dictatorship and the onset of democracy -- one must begin with an analysis of the objective conditions in Ethiopia today.
To facilitate their grand strategy of divide and rule, Ethiopia’s current dictators have carved out the country into ethnic enclaves reminiscent of South Africa’s Bantustans. That is likely to be a source of contention. Political parties are suppressed and neutralized through arbitrary regulations or direct repression and prevented from organizing and campaigning. There will likely be jockeying for power by some. Opposition leaders are jailed, intimidated and/or bankrupted. Dissidents are persecuted as “terrorists” and their exercise of their constitutional and human rights criminalized. A sudden opening up of political space could add a layer of confusion. The rule of law is trampled as citizens are arbitrarily arrested, detained and brought before kangaroo courts for summary judgment. Torture is commonplace in the secret and regular prisons as has been documented. The call for justice will likely take precedence. There are no personal freedoms-- no freedom of expression, press or association. Alternative sources of information are electronically jammed; independent newspapers are shuttered and editors and journalists jailed or exiled. Political institutions are degraded with a rubber stamp parliament, and a judicial system populated by obstuse party hacks lording over kangaroo courts. Executive power is vested in one man who exercises power without any constitutional constraints or institutional checks and balances. Transition from such a state of political affairs will require not only a tectonic shift in the structure and process of governance but also a fundamental transformation in citizens’ attitudes and the civic and political culture of the country.
Transition from Dictatorship to Democracy: It is All About the Transitional Period!
Dissolution of the dictatorship in Ethiopia does not guarantee the birth of democracy. There is no phoenix of democracy that will rise gloriously from the trash heap of dictatorship. Birthing democracy will require a lot of collaborative hard work, massive amounts of creative problem-solving and plenty of good luck and good will. A lot of heavy lifting needs to be done to propel Ethiopia from the abyss of dictatorship to the heights of democracy. It will be necessary to undertake a collective effort now to chart a clear course on how that long suffering country will emerge from decades of dictatorship, without the benefit of any viable democratic political institutions, a functional political party system, a system of civil society institutions and an independent press to kindle a democratic renaissance.
The recent history of societies that have transitioned from dictatorship to democracy demonstrates that the most important part of the transition is the transitional process itself. There is a narrow window of opportunity between the demise of the dictatorship and the emergence of the new order that has the effect of historical determinism. What happens in that window of opportunity determines whether democracy will rise from the ashes of dictatorship, or another equally virulent dictatorship rises from the ashes of the dictatorship that just ended. Simply stated, the transitional window between dictatorship to democracy is the most important element in the entire democratic process. If the transition turns out to be destructively competitive and conflict ridden because stakeholders distrust each other and are rigidly wedded to their positions, the “democracy” that will result from that will be weak, unsteady and ineffectual, if one emerges at all. If the transition is marked by genuine negotiations, bargaining and compromises, a strong and durable democracy will very likely emerge.
Ethiopia’s history offers the most compelling lessons and evidence in support of this proposition. During the U.S. brokered “transition” in 1991, Zenawi was able to masterfully short-circuit the transition process by outsmarting and outplaying the U.S. and all of the other stakeholders. Herman Cohen, the U.S. official who played the mediator role, recently gave an interview and explained, “The TPLF was at the gates of Addis. We wanted to make sure that the war ended with what we called a soft landing in Addis and there should be no destruction….We didn’t say takeover the government. We said take over Addis. We needed to have somebody takeover in Addis and then start transition toward a new governmental system.” But there was not much of a transition. Cohen added:
I opened the meeting with a statement urging the parties to work out a transition to a democratic form of government and to maintain a single economy of Ethiopia and Eritrea…After my statement, the three parties decided to continue on their own without a mediator…They repaired to a private room for their own discussions, which produced a short public statement. The statement said that a decision has been made to hold an all-parties conference in Addis Ababa no later than 1 July, at which time a transitional government would be debated and launched.
With one communique, Zenawi succeeded in hijacking the transitional process, and with lightning speed managed to consolidate his power and establish his dictatorship. That is why the transitional period is the most critical moment in the passage from dictatorship to democracy. It is vitally important to maintain unrelenting vigilance during this critical period to make sure that no one individual, group or party will have a tactical advantage to hijack the next transition to democracy.
The transitional process itself determines that type of “democracy” that will emerge. It is possible to have different types of transitions with different results, outcomes and reconfigurations in the balance of power among the stakeholders. For instance, if the transitional process is bogged down in ethnic politics, hostility and competition among the major ethnic groups, the chances for a successful democracy will likely diminish. If particular political or social groups seek to engineer another hijacking of the transitional process, the results will be catastrophic.
What does the transitional process to democracy mean? My view is simple. I begin with basic assumptions: Democracy in cannot emerge in Ethiopia by force, trickery or backroom intrigues. It cannot be dictated by one man, one party, one group, one ethnicity or one segment of society. It cannot not come through artificial and expediently formulated consensus and lip service to unity and collaboration. Democracy can be birthed in Ethiopia if and only if the transitional process from dictatorship provides all stakeholders a genuine opportunity to come together to discuss, negotiate, bargain and compromise about the future of Ethiopia. Counter-intuitive as it may sound, my view is that for the transition to democracy to be successful, what is supremely important is not the existence of broad consensus and unity among the stakeholders; rather, it is the existence of divergent interests and the ability to bring the stakeholders of these diverging interests to work through their stalemate at the negotiating table in an environment of awareness of a common destiny. In other words, when all the relevant stakeholders come together with the simple awareness and deep understanding that “we are all in the same boat. We are all rowing against a tidal wave on a sea of repression, corruption, exploitation and subjugation. In the end, we will swim or sink together.”
What is to be done before the window of transition opens and once it is opened? We have to start with the basics. What kind of “democracy” do we want? For two decades, we have been hoodwinked by a hollow but seductively phrased “revolutionary democracy”. Is a constitutional democracy desirable and timely for Ethiopia now? A constitutional democracy is based on the idea of limiting and defining the powers of government and those exercising political power. The constitution serves as the supreme law of the land and no individual or institution can breach it. Governmental authority is legitimately exercised only in accordance with the constitution and and other laws consistent with it and enforced in accordance with established procedures and in conformity with international treaty obligations. As additional safeguards against the potential of arbitrary government actions, power could be vertically divided between the central and local governments in a system of federalism (“ethnic federalism” is to genuine federalism as dictatorship is to genuine multiparty democracy). Political institutions, particularly the judiciary, will have complete independence from those exercising executive authority and will be vested with full judicial review powers. In a constitutional democracy, political parties are always at risk of losing elections (in fact, they are doomed to lose elections if they fail to listen to the people); and it is impossible for any party to win an election by 99.6 percent in a constitutional democracy. Simply stated, in a constitutional democracy government always fears the people and the people never fear their government. Is it time for constitutional democracy in Ethiopia?
Waiting for a Dictatorship to Fall?
Some are overly concerned about fixing the time when the mud walls of dictatorship in Ethiopia will come tumbling down. Neither Gadhafi, Ben Ali, Mubarak nor Saleh knew or could predict the end of their dictatorship. Even the most sophsitcated intelligence gathering operations could predict the Arab Spring. But Gandhi’s iron law of history of dictators predicts with certainty that “tyrants and murderers for a time seem invincible but in the end, they always fall - think of it, always.”
The end of dictators comes when it comes, but the facts hastening the end are plain to see, and could be extrapolated from parallel historical events elsewhere. Dictatorships are internally weak, inherently fragile and unstable. The body politics of dictatorships is poisoned by corruption and abuse of power. Unable to win hearts and minds, dictatorships maintain support by purchasing the loyalty of those from whom they seek support and use force and intimidation against their opponents. Their operating principle is total distrust, including their own supporters.
The answer to the end game of the dictatorship in Ethiopia is written plainly in the faces of the millions who are starving, the toiling peasants and day laborers, those whose lands were taken and sold for pennies to international land grabbers, the masses of young men and women who have been deprived of educational and employment opportunities, the multitudes of the homeless, the diligent businessmen and women who are victimized by paralyzing taxes, the pensioners who have lost hope in the sunset of their lives and so on. But if one were pressed to provide an answer to the question, it would be simply this: Dictatorships are doomed when citizens value their dignity above all else and join hands and stand together to defend their collective humanity. That is the singular lesson and the ultimate truth about the Arab Spring.
Guarding Against the Great Fallacy of Electoralism in a Democratic Transition
There are some who believe that the transition from dictatorship to democracy can be achieved by waving a magical wand of elections at the critical point in the demise of a dictatorship. The impulse to put all of the political eggs in the election basket and hope for the best is irresistible. Herman Cohen said that during the transition in 1991 he had accepted Zenawi’s assurances that there would be elections to sort things. But commenting on the 2005 elections, Cohen said he became publicly critical of Zenawi because the 2005 “elections were stolen, clearly stolen.” After 2005, elections in Ethiopia were not just stolen, they became the stuff of political comedy as the ruling party proclaimed: “Behold our 99.6 percent electoral victory in May 2010!” “Marvel at our democracy in 2008 in local and by-elections in which we won all but four of 3.4 million contested seats!”
ENTC: Carpe Diem! (Seize the Day!)
The idea of having individuals and groups involved in grassroots democratization efforts is heartwarming and inspiring. The idea of engaging individuals and civic groups in activism and advocacy to alleviate human suffering and to defend the defenseless, the faceless and voiceless is priceless. The idea of grassroots organizations spearheading the transition from dictatorship to democracy in Ethiopia opens up boundless opportunities. When hope itself seems hopeless and our faith in the future is swallowed by our present despair, we must replace our outrage with courage and be prepared to give 1 percent of our time and energy to the cause of transitioning Ethiopia from dictatorship to democracy.