Oh! Ethiopia - 10% Growth and 90% Poverty

By Ephrem Madebo

"But the OPDO development is - development and repression at the same time. They can build roads to the moon but I won't vote for them until we're equal" Anonymous
Oromo Peasant

The above quote is not a random view of the Oromo peasant interviewed by Jason McLure of the Bloomberg News, or it is not an isolated remark made by a displeased individual in the Oromia region; it’s a reality that hovers all over Ethiopia, and it’s a bedtime story that parents tell to their children. It is not an opinion shaped by the affluent, orby the power mongers, as the TPLF gangs would claim; it is a collective belief that a large majority of Ethiopians share regardless of ethnic, religious, or political affiliations.

The failure of half a century of Western development model, and the recent collateral damage caused by the global financial melt-down have given reason for a growing number of African leaders to question the validity of democratic models of society for economic development in Africa. As a result, some politicians in the developing world have fell in love with the development models of authoritarian countries like China. The leading representative of this group is Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia whose past was highly influenced by the “Revolutionary Democracy” principles of Chairman Mao of China and Enver Hoxha of Albania. Meles Zenawi and his friends believe that democratic procedures are inconsistent with reliable economic development models. Hence, they preach false development sermons, muffle democratic rights, and force themselves into power over and over again. As the Holy Bible says: “They plot injustice and say,” We have devised a perfect plan!" Psalm 64:6 On May 25, 2010 [in his “victory” speech], in front of a shocked nation and a puzzled international audience; Meles Zenawi attributed his party’s 99.6% electoral victory to his - record “double-digit economic growth”. A very important question here is - Is there any evidence for this bogus claim? I guess no one seems tocare for the answer as long as the US, UK, EU, the World Bank and the IMF are willing to take TPLF’s carefully manipulated garbage-in and garbage-out statistics at its face value.

To most Ethiopians the phrase double-digit economic growth is gibberish. To many poor Ethiopians, economic growth is real if and only if it changes their life. So the question is, are Ethiopians better-off today than they were 20 years ago? According to the World Bank, the level of standard of living in Ethiopia today is the same as it was 40 years ago.

So who is benefiting from Zenawi’s double-digit economic growth?

Evidently, everyone agrees that good governance is an inexorable ingredient for economic growth in any country. Today, the word “good governance” is a buzz word used by anyone including bad governments such as the Ethiopian regime. To know what “good governance” is, one should first know what governance is. Governance is a social phenomenon that embraces traditions and institutions by which political power or authority is exercised. Tradition and institutions are important, but even more important is the process by which governments are selected, monitored and replaced; the capacity of the government to effectively formulate and implement sound policies; and the respect of citizens and the state for the institutions that govern economic and social interactions among them.

The following table compares Ethiopia and Ghana using this definition of governance and six Government Indicators. To set the stage for the reader, both Ghana and Ethiopia claim to be democratic nations, there is election in both countries, and there was/is a history of dictatorship in both countries. At one moment in their history, Ghana and Ethiopia were the only independent black African nations and their leaders were fathers of the Pan African movement. Despite what authorities in these two counties say about their respective countries, let’s have a closer look at the evidence gathered by independent organizations.

NB: Higher values correspond to better governance outcomes. For example, on the “Rule of Law” row, the # 25 indicates that the Rule of Law status in Ethiopia is better only from 25% of the countries covered by the study. The study covered 212 countries and territories.

In the first table, Ghana performed way better than Ethiopia in all of the measured areas which means that the institutional atmosphere in Ghana is conducive for economic growth. However, in the second table, Ethiopia’s economy seems to be growing at a faster rate than Ghana. What is the source of this paradox? The answer to this question is found in the first raw of the first table (Voice & Accountability).The Ethiopian regime is not accountable for anything it does; it reports a 12% growth rate when it actually is growing at a much lower rate. In Ethiopia, nominal growth rates are reported as real growth rates. Economics 101 tells us that there is a huge difference between real and nominal growth rates, but to those who graduate from the Ethiopian Civil ServiceCollege, these differences don’t matter - what maters is what the big boss says.

We all know that the TPLF regime is the father of all lies and the man at the helm of this regime is a pathological liar. On May 23, 2010, on his way back form Adwa to Addis Ababa, Meles Zeanwi said: “Imagine a government which has delivered double-digit growth rates for over seven years losing an election anywhere on earth. It is unheard of for such a phenomenon to happen”. Forget seven years, can anyone show me doubledigit growth of the Ethiopian economy for just four years (even using the regime’s cooked numbers). According to the above CIA data, from 2003 to 2010, the Ethiopian economy grew in double digit figures for only four years (2005, 2007 & 2008). So what was Meles Zenawi referring when he mentioned 7 years of double digit economic growth? Is it the Ethiopian economy, or his own bank account? (Where the difference between the two is blurred)

Ethiopia is a predominantly an agrarian country where the agricultural sector accounts for about 45% of GDP and 85% of total employment. In the last five years, the TPLF regime has reported that agricultural production has gone up by 40%, and at the mean time the regime has fabricated incoherent statistical numbers to substantiate its hard to believe claim. In fact, the few, but ardent supporters of the regime have already started talking “Green Revolution” - South East Asia’s miracle of the 1950s and 1960s. The Green Revolution has effectively averted famine and paved the path for industrialization in India and Pakistan. On the contrary, Ethiopia’s 40% increase in agricultural production has not even changed the image of Ethiopia as the international symbol of hunger, let alone improving the standard of living of the population. Asia’s Green Revolution is characterized by a series of research, development, and technology transfer initiatives where as Ethiopia’s puzzling 40 percent agricultural growth occurred without any comparable increase in fertilizer use, irrigation, seed variety, technology transfer, or increase in farmland area. Besides, after a decade of so called “double digit economic growth”, Ethiopia is the 2nd poorest nation on the planet and the highest food aid recipient in Africa. So where is the 40% increase in agricultural output?

Any economic policy that does not safeguard the right of the people to indiscriminately use national resources and create the opportunity for personal and national economic growth is a failed policy. Besides, Development does not just involve the physical aspects of growth, or it is not just a mere display of statistics. Development is a multidimensional tangible phenomenon measured by life expectancy, adult literacy, access to all three levels of education, and average income of the population. In the words of Amartya Kumar Sen “Development is the expansion of capabilities and having the freedom to choose between different ways of thinking”

As the table below vividly shows, the so called “5th fastest growing economy” in the world is now reported to be the second poorest nation in the world, better only than the land locked West African nation of Niger. According to the most recent MPI (Multidimensional Poverty Index) developed by Oxford University (with support from the U.N.), 90% of Ethiopians live in poverty and 39% live on at least $1.25 a day [can’t afford Sausage Biscuit]. It is disheartening to know that Ethiopia is poorer than terror infested,
lawless, and state less Somalia. No one knows, or no one reports how slow or how fast the Somalia economy is growing, but no matter what, it is better than Zeanwi’s double – digit growing economy

Logically, there is an inverse relationship between the rate of poverty and the rate of economic growth; and the logic is that when the economy grows poverty declines. But, the misguided economic policy of the TPLF regime defies even logical relationships that in Ethiopia, poverty increases when the economy grows at a faster rate. I personally would have believed TPLF’s double-digit growth fairytale if the Ethiopian economy was providing better opportunities to a good portion of the population without any deterioration of the other portion. But, in Ethiopia, less than 5% of the population is getting richer at the cost of 90% of the population. Sadly, in contrast to this depressing reality, EFFORT's net worth is skyrocketing at a rate that dwarfs the Dow Jones and the FTSE 100 combined. On the other hand, riding free on our gold, the Saudi mogul [Al- Amoudi,] is climbing fast on the Forbes list of billionaires. I believe no more explanation is needed and no proof is required. Now we know for sure where the sweat and blood of poor Ethiopians is going, and we also know that the US, UK and the EU are helping the 5% rich get richer and the 90% poor get poorer. No Human being is allergic to development and Ethiopians who struggle for freedom and democracy are no exceptions. We love development more than we hate tyranny. None of our personal success is soothing and any of our individual achievement is captivating than seeing a just, democratic, and prosperous Ethiopia that treats all of its citizens equally. Regardless of our deep-seated political differences with the ruling ethnic minority regime in Ethiopia, we do value development efforts when the claimed growth is real, verifiable, and most importantly, when it changes living conditions in our country.

We also believe that economic growth increases the nation’s total wealth and reduces poverty. But, let’s not forget the lessons of history that economic growth is not always followed by similar progress in human development. After two decades of cooking economic data, it has become very clear that Ethiopia’s much heralded nominal economic growth was achieved at the cost of greater inequality, higher unemployment, high inflation, weakened democracy and national humiliation. In his futile effort to control the Ethiopian Diaspora and silence the only free voice of the people of Ethiopia, Meles Zenawi has ordered his attack dogs to organize demonstration in Washington, DC in support of his faulty development claims. Basically, the main purpose of yesterday’s demonstration was to garner support for his hated regime.

However, Zenawi and his thugs clearly know that the Ethiopian Diaspora supports freedom, not tyranny. Stands for democracy, not for ethnocracy. Hence, they organized the demonstration around the hot button issue of the Nile River hopping the Diaspora will follow them blindly. If Zenawi’s blind supporters were honest in their cause, they should have demonstrated in front of the Egyptian embassy than wasting their already wasted time in front of the Whitehouse and the State Department. Remember, the Nile is neither the Mississippi nor the Potomac River. All in all, Thursday’s demonstration [by Zenawi’s thugs] in Washington, DC must serve as a wake-up call for Ethiopians that fight for freedom and equality. We live on the land of freedom; we should never allow enemies of freedom to cross the oceans and tamper with our freedom. For the last 15 years, especially after the 2005 election, we have been hearing TPLF’s boring “FDD” propaganda [Federalism, Democracy, and Development]. We were either fooled or numbed, but no more! We Ethiopians should rise from all walks of life as the struggle for freedom is not something that should be left for political organizations alone. Our religious leaders must listen to the words of their creator and open their mouth whenever they see injustice.
To our Patriarch, Cardinal and Pastors: The Holy Bible says: Do not pervert justice or show partiality. Do not accept bribe, for a bribe surely blinds the eyes of the wise and twists the word of the righteous. Follow justice and justice alone. Deuteronomy 16:19
To our Imams and Muftis: The Holy Quran says: “O you who believe! Stand out firmly for justice, as witnesses to Allah, even if it be against yourselves, your parents, and your relatives, or whether it is against the rich or the poor...” (Quran 4:135)
To our political leaders: Some of you have constantly dwelt in the past, and some of you have tried to pull us back to the past. You’ve disagreed for eternity and bickered for so long, allowing your people to be dominated by ruthless dictators and to be looted by those who have no bound. You must understand that the source of our victory is unity, and our unity must grow from our experience of the past and most importantly it should grow out of striving for the future. If you can’t stand together and lead us to the hope of the future, I’m afraid that the future will be the past again. We might not know what the future holds, but we must know who holds the future for Ethiopia. The TPLF regime is an enemy to all of us, therefore, we must all hang together, or let there be no doubt that Meles Zenawi hangs us all together.

We cannot and we must not be prisoners of the past. The past may help us in defining the future, but we can never fix the past and may be not be able to plan the future by the past. We must work together with reason to escape the past and everything bad in it. But our journey of evading the past must start by healing each other’s wounds of the past and by adding something better to it. Let’s make a shift from ‘popcorn’ politics and move to the real politics of emancipating people!

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The writer, human rights activist Ephrem Madebo, can be reachedebini23@yahoo.com