'If push comes to shove, we can survive on our own'

Foreign Affairs Correspondent Mary Fitzgerald talks to Ethiopia’s prime minister in the first of a series of articles from the African country

IT IS almost two decades since Meles Zenawi came to power in Ethiopia after the rebels he led toppled the brutal dictatorship of Mengistu Haile Mariam.

Since then, the former Marxist guerrilla has presided over sweeping political and economic change: introducing a multiparty system, boosting health and education, and adopting pro-market policies to help transform a limping, largely agricultural economy into one predicted to be among the five fastest-growing in the world in 2010.

“We have succeeded in proving that Ethiopia can grow at Asian growth rates,” says Meles, sitting in his cavernous offices in the capital Addis Ababa. “This has rekindled hope in the possibility that Ethiopia will not for long be the poster child for poverty in the world.”

Ethiopia remains heavily dependent on foreign aid – Ireland contributed €27.8 million in bilateral aid in 2009 – and almost 12 million Ethiopians will rely on food aid in the first half of this year. It comes as a surprise, therefore, to hear Meles argue that “technically . . . if push comes to shove, we can survive on our own”.

If food aid was cut tomorrow, he continues: “We would have to shelve some of our development projects and use the money to buy wheat from abroad but no one would starve.”

While Meles’ fans once hailed him as one of sub-Saharan Africa’s shrewdest and most visionary leaders – in 1998, Bill Clinton described him as the leader of a continental renaissance – his record has been blotted by sharp criticism over human rights and the violent crackdown on anti-government protests which followed a disputed general election in 2005. At least 193 people were killed by police and thousands arrested.

Meles admits mistakes were made: “With better training and equipment of our police force, the number of people who lost lives could have been drastically reduced . . . there were very glaring shortcomings but those shortcomings have now been overcome.”

Most of Ethiopia’s political players have signed up to a new code of conduct ahead of parliamentary elections due to take place in May.

“That is a major plus to what we had in 2005 because the majority of participants have now agreed on the rules of the game,” Meles says.

“In spite of all this, I cannot tell you the risk of instability is zero. I can say that we are aware of this risk and we are determined to ensure that it doesn’t materialise.”

Asked about opposition claims that aid is being used as a political tool in the run-up to the poll, he replies: “Given the fact that there are several hundred thousand people involved in the distribution of food aid, I cannot say that not a single one of them has unfairly discriminated . . . People are trying to make political capital out of this.”

Still, Ethiopia has faced increasing criticism for its human rights record.

“The overwhelming majority of the criticism is invalid,” Meles claims. “At the same time, I say this is a work in progress . . . and we do not expect to have a situation where there is no violation of human rights of any person anywhere in Ethiopia.”

He refers to a Human Rights Watch report which alleged Ethiopian troops committed war crimes while battling rebels in the country’s Ogaden area, and a US state department report: “We found that the overwhelming majority of those accusations are allegations by people who have an axe to grind being transformed into facts after a series of reportings.”

A review by the UN Human Rights Council in December raised several concerns about Ethiopia’s record. It recommended that the government reassess controversial legislation passed last year which outlawed any civil society group that promotes human rights, democracy, or conflict resolution and receives more than 10 per cent of its funding from abroad.

“It is perfectly democratic legislation,” Meles argues. “I believe that if we were to follow the advice of some of our friends and allow foreign money dictate political terms in Ethiopia, we would simply pretend to be in the process of democratisation without democratising.” But doesn’t the law narrow Ethiopia’s democratic space? “No, it is possible to organise in Ethiopia without foreign money. I know because I have done it both as a student and a guerrilla fighter,” he counters.

Some international human rights groups and Ethiopian opposition figures accuse donor states of holding back from properly challenging the government on human rights because it is a crucial ally in an unstable region. During the Bush era, US officials frequently described Meles as Washington’s most important African partner in its so-called war on terror.

Meles rejects claims that some donors have soft-pedalled on human rights. “Many of our friends have not minced words in criticising us . . . They tried to convince us to stop the [civil society] legislation. But I think our friends know that . . . we make our own decisions.” He is scathing about Birtukan Mideksa, an imprisoned opposition leader whose case has been highlighted by Amnesty International. Birtukan, who was given a life sentence following the 2005 elections and then released under a pardon agreement, was sent back to prison after the government accused her of violating the terms of her pardon.

“She will be in prison until she serves her full term and nothing anybody says is going to change that,” Meles bristles. “It is a perfectly legal process and that is the end of the story . . . This is again a glaring example of how the human rights issue is abused by people who want to influence political processes in Ethiopia.”

Meles has now been in power for longer than the man his rebel army overthrew in 1991. After consultations with his party, he says his intended retirement date of 2010 has been put back to 2015: “I will be participating in these elections as a candidate but for sure this will be my last term . . . It will be my last term because the party says it will be my last term.”