On the Rising Inflation Rate in Ethiopia

By Seid Hassan*
Even though many causes could be mentioned, the main culprits of the inflation rates in Ethiopia are supply shortages, excess money supply and devaluation. To make matters worse, the government imposed price caps, which in turn have made a substantial portion of consumer products to disappear from the market.

As I indicated before, inflation in Ethiopia would remain a perennial problem unless the government in power both acknowledges and takes measures to alleviate the supply shortages, tightens its expansionary monetary and fiscal policy, and refrains from manipulating the domestic currency (and, instead focuses on solving the real economic fundamentals and structural problems), while at the same time minimizing its heavy intervention in the “free” market.

Even though it is easy to identify both the causes and potential solutions of the rampant inflation, I am somewhat pessimistic about the government’s ability to resolve the crisis. The supply shortages are structural problems which have existed in the economy for too long and would require major policy changes which should include returning the land back to the tiller. As long as the government continues to play an increasing role in the economy, as the so-called Growth and Transformation Plan (GSP) is set out to do, it will continue to soak the economy with an excessive government expenditure and money supply. Several anecdotal evidences and several of the government’s current polices strongly indicate that excessive government spending will continue unabated. Some of these increased expenditures include, in addition to what the ominous GSP would demand (which is expected to dangerously soak the economy with excess money supply/expenditures), the government has now faced with additional expenditures on security and imported goods (in which case the devaluation and the price cap measures have made it worse than would be otherwise.)

According to Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, devaluing the birr by 20% was necessitated by previous rising inflation rates that had engulfed the country, which in turn has made the real exchange rate to appreciate. Unfortunately, and if the government’s objective continues to be a non-appreciating real exchange rate, both the current rising inflation rates and the previous unexpected devaluation of the birr may necessitate for another devaluation of the birr. Unfortunately, both the government’s pronouncements (which at times happen to be contradictory) of impending and continuous (but not massive) devaluation of the birr and the manner in which the previous devaluation measures were taken have set in motion further declines in the value of the birr (that is, increased inflation.) As I stated it in my 2008 write-up, we ought to buckle-up for the hard ride.

The writer is a professor of economics at Murray State University and can be reached at Seid.hassan@murraystate.edu

Opinion: Ethiopia's Leaderless Revolution

I remember three decades ago when the Ethiopian youth were bombarded with the theories of Marxism and Leninism, which did not merge well with the Ethiopian culture, history and religions. The communist movement was inspired by university students who expanded like a wild fire. However, during struggle the military junta slaughtered many Ethiopian youths.

After a few years, the TPLF controlled the country. However the Ethiopian youth made the ultimate price and make the central government weaker. The Ethiopian youths who loved his country so much sacrificed like a lamb.

But when the Ethiopian revolutionaries (the oppositions or the military government) were nowhere to be found, everyone, even Mengistu ran out of the country. And Ethiopia was handed to TPLF and EPLF in a golden plate.
It’s really bothering me right now. Still nothing has changed with the Ethiopian revolutionaries. Whether they are pro-democracy or pro-communist or the Ethiopian progressive elite, the same old revolutionaries bear the same way of thinking. These people are far from the country and live in the other part of the world and are trying to ignite another revolution. But with no proper leadership, what’s next? OLF or?

And some politicians nowadays want the youth to go out and want the youth to write BEKA in every corner of Addis Ababa. It’s exactly what the EPRP used to do. It looks like nothing’s changed.

But the Ethiopian diaspora’s politicians must understand that the Ethiopian youths are no longer a fool; if they want to change Ethiopia, first we need them inside the country. The Ethiopian youths need to demand these politicians to come back and organize and lead us. Ethiopian youth needs to demand from those intellectuals Ethiopians who wrote so much online. You should tell them, “Do not hide in Europe and in the USA and asking us to sacrifice ourselves again. No thanks!”

Those revolutionaries used to be Marxist Leninist. They used to advocate communism and preach about international Proletarianism and advocate atheism to a religiously adherent country.

Now, they became pro-democratic, demanding free society in Ethiopia. It looks like they support free democratic freedom and free speech. At the same time, if you question their motives, they ignore you, and you will be tagged with names and hear horrible things from their filthy mouths. They do not even allow you to comment on anything on their web site; these are the kind of people who want to change Ethiopia. The question is can these people be trusted?

As much as I have a problem with the EPRDF/TPLF government human right record, I have doubt on those people who would like to control the Ethiopian revolution by remote control and their demand on the children of the poor to pay the price with their blood. Above all, they hid themselves with their families in the States or Europeans countries asking the youth to pay the ultimate price. This injustice has to be confronted and stopped.
The most successful world class leaders remain by their people and fought back the injustice. Well known great leaders like Martin Luther King and Gandhi stayed with their people and made the ultimate sacrifice for something they believe in. But their dreams finally realized and the next generations see the light of freedom and justice they struggled, bleed, and died for.

Plus the Ethiopian opposition cannot even work together. The main reason is due to the serious lack of leadership. Plus you have to know that no nation on the face of the earth rose by simply talking or chatting via internet. Ethiopian revolutionaries were talking for over three decades but their dreams never materialized. As far as I know Ethiopia’s problem is so complex and whoever control the government it is not going have an easy ride, but there are certain demands that every country, no matter where they are located or who they are, deserve to demand for. Freedom and basic rights are no exception.

Millennium Hydroelectric Dam Project: A Historic Cause Worth Rallying Behind

By A Group of Ethiopian Diaspora Living in Ethiopia
diaspora.ethio@gmail.com

The Group that is writing this piece was formed two years ago by some members of the Ethiopian diaspora who used to live in North America, and have once again made Ethiopia their home. Members come from all walks of life including business, various professions, faith-based as well as the not-for-profit sector. The Group’s objective is to consult with one another; exchange ideas and work collaboratively so as to individually and collectively contribute to the socioeconomic development of the country and people.

There is a consensus that the Group should remain informal and non-political, thus members rarely get involved as a group in public forums or in the media. But there inevitably comes a time when one finds it difficult to remain silent or indifferent.

Thus, more than ever before, we feel a sense of duty and responsibility to speak up in support of the Millennium Hydroelectric Dam, which indeed is a historic and visionary project that is worth winning the support of all Ethiopians and friends of Ethiopia. In our view, there are five main historical, psychological, political and socioeconomic reasons to rally behind this worthy cause.

First, all Ethiopians – young and old; from rural or urban area; within or outside the country – can relate to the sense of despair they felt since time memorial with regard to Abay, i.e. the Nile. From the age old adage “Yabay lej weha temaw” (A child of Nile suffering from thirst for water) to the Dergue era “Abay Abay yager adbar, yager sisai …” song of lamentation, Ethiopians were resigned to a sense of defeatism that there was some kind of “curse” that gets in the way of their inherent right to benefit from the most valuable God-given natural resource that originates in and passes through their land.

Fortunately, that “curse” is now being lifted like a dark cloud. And the launching of this project is a remarkable moment with a significant positive impact on the Ethiopian individual and collective psyche.

Second, triggered by economic incapacity and the lack of political will, Abay ultimately became a symbol of injustice. Adding insult to injury, the fact that the country lacked the ability to make the best use of Abay ended up being interpreted by others with vested interests as though Ethiopia has relinquished its inherent right to a fair and equitable share of the water. Thankfully, the current Ethiopian Government’s game-changing approach to Abay has led to the long overdue sense of justice felt not just by Ethiopians, but also justice loving people all over the world. After all, as Martin Luther King articulately stated in his letter from Birmingham Jail, “Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere”.

Third, it’s often said that the typical rallying force for Ethiopians is a war against any aggression threatening their national integrity or, in a time of peace, a victory on the athletic front. So, this grand development plan – with high potential to greatly benefit not only their own but also their neighbouring countries in the region – is a groundbreaking rallying factor for Ethiopians.

Fourth, the role electricity plays in a country’s economy is indeed well known. To that end, the hydroelectric dam is going to immensely contribute to our country’s resoluteness to end poverty through economic development – i.e. infrastructure building; agricultural improvement, industrialization and technological advancement, etc.

Last but certainly not least, the project will provide temporary and permanent job opportunities for experts, skilled and semi-skilled workers, labourers, service providers and suppliers of all kinds of materials.

Thus, for the five reasons mentioned above and perhaps more the Group may likely have overlooked, we strongly believe that Ethiopians of all backgrounds – regardless of their ethnicity, religion, social status or political leanings – should rally behind this great cause.

A word of caution to Ethiopians in general and our brothers and sisters in the diaspora in particular: While the overwhelming majority of Ethiopians, as expected, welcomed the hydroelectric dam news with excitement, and continue expressing their eagerness to give the project their 100% backing, there are some detractors – albeit very insignificant in number – who, out of deliberate distortion of truth or sheer ignorance, have begun to speak and write ill about this commendable project.

What’s worse, the most dishonest allegation these naysayers are making is to depict the Millennium Hydroelectric Dam Project as a kneejerk reaction aimed at shifting attention from the political unrest that is taking place in North Africa and the Middle East. And frankly this is an insult to Ethiopians’ intelligence for at least three main reasons:

First, the history in the making we are privileged to witness is evidently not a pork barrel community water well drilling that can be planned and announced in just a matter of weeks. Rather, it’s an enormous undertaking for a landmark development project. And one doesn’t have to be a high-ranking public official or a civil engineer to imagine the amount of time it took to discuss, plan and hammer things out prior to the announcement.

Second, one doesn’t have to be a political analyst either to have seen this coming, especially after the Cooperative Framework Agreement was signed by Nile basin countries way back in May 2010. Soon after, it’s to be recalled how the talk on Nile heated up on the international media; PM Meles Zenawi stood his ground, and went to great lengths to defend his country’s rights.

Third, who says Ethiopia is cursed to be an importer of copycat revolution? And who benefits from a political unrest, really? Hasn’t the country suffered enough due to years of political conflicts? Cynics can label us as “economic determinists” if they so wish, but we strongly believe that we represent the vast majority of Ethiopians when we boldly state that this is the era of economic revolution for Ethiopia.
So, it goes without saying that Ethiopians have to be vigilant of the propaganda fabricated by these adversaries who are choosing to be on the wrong side of history.

To conclude, when we congratulate the government and the people of Ethiopia for this historic and visionary project, it’s with recognition that it’s a huge responsibility that requires the involvement and support of all Ethiopians living within or outside their homeland, not to mention friends of Ethiopia in the African continent as well as all over the world. And together we can indeed realize this long overdue individual and collective dream of ours by rallying behind this once in a life time cause deserving of our support every step of the way.

The Poverty of Dictatorship

BY Dani Rodrik
CAMBRIDGE – Perhaps the most striking finding in the United Nations’ recent 20th anniversary Human Development Report is the outstanding performance of the Muslim countries of the Middle East and North Africa. Here was Tunisia, ranked sixth among 135 countries in terms of improvement in its Human Development Index (HDI) over the previous four decades, ahead of Malaysia, Hong Kong, Mexico, and India. Not far behind was Egypt, ranked 14th.

The HDI is a measure of development that captures achievements in health and education alongside economic growth. Egypt and (especially) Tunisia did well enough on the growth front, but where they really shone was on these broader indicators. At 74, Tunisia’s life expectancy edges out Hungary’s and Estonia’s, countries that are more than twice as wealthy. Some 69% of Egypt’s children are in school, a ratio that matches much richer Malaysia’s. Clearly, these were states that did not fail in providing social services or distributing the benefits of economic growth widely.

Yet in the end it did not matter. The Tunisian and Egyptian people were, to paraphrase Howard Beale, mad as hell at their governments, and they were not going to take it anymore. If Tunisia’s Zine El Abidine Ben Ali or Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak were hoping for political popularity as a reward for economic gains, they must have been sorely disappointed.

One lesson of the Arab annus mirabilis, then, is that good economics need not always mean good politics; the two can part ways for quite some time. It is true that the world’s wealthy countries are almost all democracies. But democratic politics is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for economic development over a period of several decades.

Despite the economic advances they registered, Tunisia, Egypt, and many other Middle Eastern countries remained authoritarian countries ruled by a narrow group of cronies, with corruption, clientelism, and nepotism running rife. These countries’ rankings on political freedoms and corruption stand in glaring contrast to their rankings on development indicators.

In Tunisia, Freedom House reported prior to the Jasmine revolution, “the authorities continued to harass, arrest, and imprison journalists and bloggers, human rights activists, and political opponents of the government.” The Egyptian government was ranked 111th out of 180 countries in Transparency International’s 2009 survey of corruption.

And of course, the converse is also true: India has been democratic since independence in 1947, yet the country didn’t begin to escape of its low “Hindu rate of growth” until the early 1980’s.

A second lesson is that rapid economic growth does not buy political stability on its own, unless political institutions are allowed to develop and mature rapidly as well. In fact, economic growth itself generates social and economic mobilization, a fundamental source of political instability.

As the late political scientist Samuel Huntington put it more than 40 years ago, “social and economic change – urbanization, increases in literacy and education, industrialization, mass media expansion – extend political consciousness, multiply political demands, broaden political participation.” Now add social media such as Twitter and Facebook to the equation, and the destabilizing forces that rapid economic change sets into motion can become overwhelming.

These forces become most potent when the gap between social mobilization and the quality of political institutions widens. When a country’s political institutions are mature, they respond to demands from below through a combination of accommodation, response, and representation. When they are under-developed, they shut those demands out in the hope that they will go away – or be bought off by economic improvements.

The events in the Middle East amply demonstrate the fragility of the second model. Protesters in Tunis and Cairo were not demonstrating about lack of economic opportunity or poor social services. They were rallying against a political regime that they felt was insular, arbitrary, and corrupt, and that did not allow them adequate voice.

A political regime that can handle these pressures need not be democratic in the Western sense of the term. One can imagine responsive political systems that do not operate through free elections and competition among political parties. Some would point to Oman or Singapore as examples of authoritarian regimes that are durable in the face of rapid economic change. Perhaps so. But the only kind of political system that has proved itself over the long haul is that associated with Western democracies.

Which brings us to China. At the height of the Egyptian protests, Chinese Web surfers who searched the terms “Egypt” or “Cairo” were returned messages saying that no results could be found. Evidently, the Chinese government did not want its citizens to read up on the Egyptian protests and get the wrong idea. With the memory of the 1989 Tiananmen Square movement ever present, China’s leaders are intent on preventing a repeat.

China is not Tunisia or Egypt, of course. The Chinese government has experimented with local democracy and has tried hard to crack down on corruption. Even so, protest has spread over the last decade. There were 87,000 instances of what the government calls “sudden mass incidents” in 2005, the last year that the government released such statistics, which suggests that the rate has since increased. Dissidents challenge the supremacy of the Communist Party at their peril.

The Chinese leadership’s gamble is that a rapid increase in living standards and employment opportunities will keep the lid on simmering social and political tensions. That is why it is so intent on achieving annual economic growth of 8% or higher – the magic number that it believes will contain social strife.

But Egypt and Tunisia have just sent a sobering message to China and other authoritarian regimes around the world: don’t count on economic progress to keep you in power forever.

Dani Rodrik is Professor of Political Economy at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government and the author of One Economics, Many Recipes: Globalization, Institutions, and Economic Growth.

Source

Did Ethnic Federalism Save Ethiopia?

By: Samuel M. Gebru

February 16, 2011

1991 is an important year in modern Ethiopian history. The year served as a monumental change for Ethiopia, from military rule to a transitional government that pledged to bring about social democracy. What saved Ethiopia in 1991 was ethnic federalism. But is it helping Ethiopia today? What lessons can our African neighbors learn from our experience? Can Ethiopia improve its federal framework?

Ethiopia is largely regarded to as an influential state actor in regional and continental politics. With Addis Ababa serving as host of the African Union and one of the top diplomatic capitals of the world, Ethiopia yields influence beyond its borders and the African continent. After almost two decades of a brutal military rule, Ethiopia reopened its borders when Colonel Mengistu Hailemariam’s government crumbled down in 1991.

By mid-1991, transitional President and leader of the northern rebels that toppled the military government, Meles Zenawi, promised sweeping reforms geared at keeping Ethiopia intact. Despite its shortcomings, the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) did achieve some degree of representation from various ethnic, political and intellectual movements.

During this tense year, warring ethnic groups began voicing strong calls for secession from the Ethiopian union. Interestingly, Ethiopia remains one of the oldest polities in the world. The new political arrangement that the TFG adopted in its 1995 Constitution under the “Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia” was a parliamentary republic based on ethnic federalism. New borders were drawn up, dividing Ethiopia into nine states and two federally chartered cities. The TFG’s reasoning in choosing nine states was based off their method of figuring out what ethno-linguistic group could be grouped with others. The grouping took the term of “nations, nationalities and peoples.”

In a January 7, 2011 Reuters article, “Federalism in Ethiopia helps maintain unity,” by Aaron Maasho, Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, who has been leading the government since 1995 as Prime Minister and since 1991 as transitional President, stated that Ethiopia’s “balkanization” was avoided by ethnic federalism. The Prime Minister is correct in stating that Ethiopia was saved through ethnic federalism, granting autonomy to the “nations, nationalities and peoples.”

However, to what extent Ethiopia was “saved” remains the question. Critics would argue that the right to secession as provided in Article 39 Section 1 does more harm than good. The line reads: “Every Nation, Nationality and People in Ethiopia has an unconditional right to self-determination, including the right to secession.” Critics also argue that while the ethnic federalism framework in theory would greatly benefit Ethiopia, it is misused often by the authoritarian nature of the Ethiopian government. The most interesting claim is that the ruling party, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), purposefully included Section 1 of Article 39 to ensure Eritrea’s legal secession in 1993. This claim is practically, and perhaps even correctly, viewed as an open secret.

Ethnic federalism has indeed saved Ethiopia from destruction particularly as the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) both continue to wage an armed secessionist movement in southern and southeastern Ethiopia. It allows previously marginalized societies the right to self-determination and self-governance; to speak their own language, to learn their own ethnic and cultural history.

For ethnic federalism to continue in Ethiopia today, political, social, economic and intellectual leaders need to come together and engage in conversations with both each other and the Ethiopian citizenry as to how to go about devising a new strategy forward. Conversations about ethnicity, identity, nationality and patriotism also need to be held in the villages of Ethiopia’s rural regions, where 85% of the population resides; in the public and private institutions of higher learning, students must be challenged to confront the issues facing their society daily, from poverty to democracy. If the current system continues, it won’t be surprising to see stronger opposition against Article 39 and perhaps the reinforcement of existing secessionist groups.

Allowing the “nations, nationalities and peoples” their rights to self-determination will continue to help Ethiopia move forward so as long as the practice of ethnic federalism is kept in line with its original intentions of promoting democracy and not nepotism or confusion over secession. Ethiopia’s neighbors, perhaps most prominently the Republic of Sudan, could and can still learn from its experiment with ethnic federalism. Had the Arab-dominated government of Sudan respected the ethnic identity and political, economic and social rights of the people of Southern Sudan, the world could have seen very different results from the recently held referendum.

Improving Ethiopia’s federal framework will undoubtedly take time before all sides of the political and social discourse can be “convinced” of mature and thoughtful dialogue for the country’s long-term development. It is evident that having comprehensive dialogues should be in the best interest of both the ruling party and the opposition parties. Ultimately, the growth of democracy, the promotion of education and equitable and sustainable economic development is what will continue to “save” Ethiopia.

History has shown that when Ethiopians view each other as partners, they are able to achieve wonders. As the Ethiopian proverb goes, “A partner in the business will not put an obstacle to it.”

Land grab devastates Gambella region

Wednesday, February 16, 2011 @ 10:02 PM ed
By Obang Motho–

Deforestation of 5,000 hectares of agricultural land leased to Verdanta Harvests of India could have an irreversible impact not only in Ethiopia, but also to downstream populations in Sudan and Egypt.
The Ethiopian Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development (MoARD) is ignoring objections from Ethiopian President Girma Wolde-Giorgis, from the Environmental Protection Authority of Ethiopia (EPA) and from the indigenous Mazenger people of Gambella, to the clearing of 5,000 hectares of ancient forests in the Godere District, located at the headwaters of five critical rivers in the Nile Basin that are major tributaries to the White Nile.
Despite the fact that the Mazenger and other indigenous people have depended on these forest-covered lands for their livelihood for generations and despite well-founded fears that the deforestation of the area could have serious and potentially irreversible effects on the people, habitat, wildlife and water, the Minister of Agriculture has authorized a fifty year lease of the land to the Indian company, Verdanta Harvests (VH), who plan to use the land for a tea and spice plantation; destined for export. The absolutely cavalier attitude of the MoARD towards anyone else’s authority, rights or concerns gives evidence of how frenzied and money and/or power-centered these land deals have become in Ethiopia. In Godere, the clearing of the trees has already begun; blatantly disregarding all warnings, protests or claims to the land.
As objections fall on deaf ears, it appears that compliance with publicized protocols is non-existent with decisions being made at the whim of a few Meles-regime cronies at the top. The failure to consider the short and long term environmental risks associated with these land grabs; not even including the impact to the lives of the people, could have extremely dangerous consequences as millions of hectares of choice Ethiopian agricultural land are leased throughout the country. It gives the impression that Meles and his cronies are trying to make “fast money” before the regime collapses; then abandoning these investors to the mercy of a new government who might not be willing to sell out on the people.
Here is a more sequential explanation of what happened in Godere; with more details available through a recently leaked eighteen-page document (see linkhttp://www.solidaritymovement.org/amharic/110208TamiruAmbelo.pdf ) in Amharic that we in the Solidarity Movement for a New Ethiopia (SMNE) acquired regarding the above-mentioned deal. The letters reads like a drama; showing a game of double-talk, manipulation and intimidation being played by this regime with the land, lives and future of the people.
Summary of the Document
Sometime last spring (2010), the local Mazenger and other indigenous people in the villages of Gomare and Bako (Godere district) discovered that their homes and forest-covered land they depended on for everything; including hunting, gathering and beekeeping, were soon to be leased to an Indian company who would be clearing the forests to make way for a tea and spice plantation. As a result, they were targeted for displacement. After hearing about this, the local people in both villages organized and sent a team of representatives to Addis Ababa. The team included: Tamiru Ambelo; Chairman of Gomare village, Ameya Kesito; secretary of Gomare village and Kasahun Kekilo; an elder from Bako village.
While in Addis Ababa, they met with the President of Ethiopia, Girma Wolde-Giorgis, supposedly the Head of State in the administration, and explained to him what was happening. They told him that this land should not be given away to investors; telling him that it belonged to them as indigenous people who had lived there for generations, that without it their livelihood would be destroyed, that they considered the forests sacred and that the environment would be greatly impacted through the deforestation of the region. Much to his credit, President Girma listened to them and supported their position.
In response he wrote a letter to the Environmental Protection Authority of Ethiopia (EPAE); saying that the EPAE should tell the MoARD to suspend this project. Again, much to the credit of the EPAE and in an effort to follow their established mission of protecting the environment, the EPAE also listened and supported the peoples’ position. On May 6, 2010, the EPAE wrote a letter to the MoARD, with copies to Gambella Regional Governor, Omot Obang Olum and President Girma, saying that the short term benefit of leasing this land (including clearing it of its forests) would not outweigh the long-term costs to the country and that the lease should not proceed. They added that there were local environmental NGO’s present in the district who had been very involved in teaching the locals how to protect these valuable forests for the future and that they had done a very good job.
On November 19, 2010, Governor Omot responded indirectly to this EPAE position; not to them, but by writing a letter to Godere District authorities; telling them that this land (5000 hc) had already been given to an investor, Verdanta Harvests (VH) and that the agreement could not be altered at this time. He explained that VH had already paid the government $19,000 US for 3,012 hc of the land; towards an agreement that would give them 5,000 hectares for fifty years at $6 US per hectare. He told them that the project was to proceed without interference.
His letter was backed up by the MoARD, who on November 25, 2010, sent their own team to meet with the local people in the villages. However, when they met, they excluded those officials who had opposed it; including the chairman of the village, Tamiru Ambelo. Instead, they only invited the village vice chairman, a man more “sympathetic” to their own point of view—as well as other select people—to meet with the general public. When they met, they heavily lobbied the people for their support of the project. They labeled any who disagreed with it as being “anti-development;” saying that such people opposed the very development and investment that would bring roads, employment and income to the people.
In response to this meeting, on December 9, 2010, Tamiru, Ameya and Kasahun wrote another letter to President Girma; updating him and asking him to intervene once again because despite his letter and the directive from the EPA, Gambella Governor Omot Obang Olum and the MoARD were proceeding with the clearing of the land. This time President Girma wrote a letter directly to the Minister of Agriculture on December 10, 2010; literally telling him to stop this project from going any further because this land, with its abundant rain forests, should be protected; explaining how the headwaters of these critical rivers could be affected and how the people depended on the forests for their livelihood. He copied the letter to Omot Obang Olum, the EPA, the local authorities, local residents and even to Prime Minister Meles Zenawi himself.
No formal response to his letter is recorded in the 18-page document we acquired; however, on January 25, 2011, the administrator of the Godere district wrote a letter to the two kebele villages of Gomare and Bako; directing them to immediately fire Tamiru from his job as chairman of the village and in his place, to immediately appoint the vice chair as chairman of the village. As mentioned previously, this vice chair had been in favor of the land investment project. Tamiru was accused of working with “anti-development” people in trying to kill the project and of working against the interests of the local people. He was also accused of opposing literacy, job creation and other kinds of development. Currently, the project is moving forward and the forests are being cleared.
In conclusion:
What is happening in Godere is only one example of what is going on throughout Ethiopia as the legitimate concerns of the people are manipulated or suppressed and as those who speak out are harassed, intimidated, punished (losing jobs, property, etc), beaten, arrested or killed. This case is only exceptional in that both President Girma and the EPAE took the side of the people; yet, even then, no one listened to them. We hope this government will not take any actions against Tamiru, Ameya and Kasahun; but if any punitive actions result, we will report on it.
Where is the accountability and rule of law in this government that portrays itself as being democratic, environmentally conscious; even representing all of Africa in the climate talks and as a progressive crusader for economic development? The Meles regime is being run like a mafia; a kleptocracy of Meles, his family and his cronies. Regardless of its elaborate laws and grandiose rhetoric, every decision in Ethiopia is at the whim of someone at the top who might profit in some way. Punitive measures; including human rights violations, are the predictable outcome for any who dare resist by getting in their way. From the prospective of the Meles regime, all indigenous land is for sale; regardless of the impact on the people, the environment and the country.
As one local Anuak man said, “Ethiopia has never been colonized, but now it has been colonized by the tiny minority of people who run the country. It is not only the outsiders who are complicit with them in robbing the country, but also the opportunistic Ethiopians; including some in the Diaspora.”
Information has been leaked to the SMNE regarding names of Ethiopians both within and outside of the country who are colluding with the Meles regime in the land grab schemes.
The SMNE continues to receive leaked information from conscientious Ethiopians who are secretly outraged by this injustice and morally convicted to not cooperate any longer with the Meles regime in their corrupt and illegal practices which have been going on for nearly twenty years now. These courageous Ethiopians have provided other information to us as well and we expect continued leaks of such documents and information to still come forth from Ethiopians who can no longer ignore this.
One of those documents is a list of some of the Ethiopians who have capitalized on investing in these land grabs; knowingly leasing the land under situations where the people are not consulted, where the environmental impacts have not been studied or heeded and where people are being forced off their land with no compensation or provision for their needs. This displacement is not only being carried out in the rural communities; but also is going on within the city limits of Addis Ababa. The people are promised “development,” but almost none has been seen. Some see this as an opportunity to make quick money; taking advantage of the great vulnerability of the people as they rush in to exploit the moment. However, even though no one seems to be watching; the eyes of those God-fearing Ethiopians—scattered among the villages, offices and departments throughout the country—are watching carefully and are quietlyacting on it.Here is our recent example.
The SMNE has been given a list of more than a hundred names, phone numbers and locations of Ethiopian investors in Gambella, Benishangul-Gumuz, Afar, Amhara region, Southern Nations and Oromiya who have taken advantage of the opportunity; buying 1,000 to 5,000 hectares of land in cooperation with this repressive government who is now starting to forcibly remove the people from their homes to resettlement villages. Many are refusing to go, but others, fearing reprisals, have left. We intend to release these names; including those who live in the Diaspora so Ethiopians can know who is helping rob the country. When this government falls, any agreement that has been signed regarding the land will not be binding. These agreements are illegal; completed without consulting the people, under the threat of retaliation and by a government who has stolen an election and kept citizens captive. Actions that have displaced the people through forced villagization projects will be reversed.
New Ethiopia
In a “New Ethiopia,” whether in Godere, Addis Ababa, Abobo, Arba Minch, Adwa, Asosa, Awasa, Babille, Bonga, Debre Dawa, Dessie, Debre Tabor, Dimma, Dembidolo, Debre Berhan, Gambella, Gondar, Gorgora, Gog, Harar, Humera, Jimma, Jijiga, Kombolcha, Kulubi, Mek’ele, Mizan Teferi, Metu, Moyale, Negele Boran, Nekemte, Sodore, Sodu Welmal, Tullu Milki, Turmi, Woldia, Wolleka, Abelo, Yeha; and above all; in the north, south, east and west of New Ethiopia, no matter what ethnicity, political view, language, religion or any other differences, this injustice should outrage all of us as citizens of a country where “humanity comes before ethnicity” and where “no one is free until all are free.”This is what the SMNE is all about.
President Girma and the EPAE have tried to do what was right and just for the people, but were ignored! Regardless, we commend them highly for what they have done in trying to implement the law in a country where there is no rule of law. They are examples of some of the good Ethiopians trying to operate with integrity; yet who are totally compromised by a corrupt and lawless few who hold the country hostage. We also give much credit to the representatives and the people of Gomare and Bako for their remarkable work, persistence and courage; particularly the leadership.
All of these people are heroes. May God help increasingly more Ethiopians to follow their conscience; rising up to do what is good, right and just. Eventually, with God’s help and with each other, we will reach the “tipping point;” unbalancing this regime away from evil, ethnic hatred and oppression and towards a New Ethiopia where the God-given rights of all Ethiopians are respected. Be ready for that tipping point may come at any moment! May God free our souls with His presence; lifting up the curtain of fear and apathy that binds us to our past; replacing it with love, truth, courage and the moral conviction necessary to lead us rightly into a new future!
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Please do not hesitate to e-mail your comments to Mr. Obang Metho, Executive Director of the SMNE, at: obang@solidaritymovement.org

Ethiopia: Open Letter to Professor Stiglitz

By Ethiopian Economists

Professor Joseph Stiglitz
University Professor
Economics Department, Columbia University
814 Uris Hall, MC 3308
420 West 118th Street
New York, NY 10027

February 15th, 2011

Dear Professor Stiglitz,

First, we Ethiopian economists and scholars express our sincere admiration for and recognition of your distinguished work in advancing the frontiers of economic thinking and your world renowned contributions to the theory of information which earned you and your colleague (Professor Grossman) the highest esteem, the award of the Nobel Prize in economics.

In light of your stature, it will not come as a surprise to you that those of us who hail from developing countries follow what you say very closely. In this regard, we kept a keen eye and learned a great deal of your interest and involvement in matters of development in the Third World over the past few years. You will agree with us that all people—irrespective of race, religion, age or other attribute-- aspire to be free of oppression, poverty and corruption. The monumental changes that are taking place in Tunisia and Egypt which are now raging in the rest of North Africa and the Middle East are illustrative of the human passion for freedom and dignity. Given this emerging trend, we were astonished by your recent interview with Bloomberg (2. February 2011, “Real Risk of Spillover from Egypt Unrest”), in which you discussed the situation in Egypt. When the journalist asked what advice you would provide to the Egyptian Government you said that, “at this point they have to open up and democratize; I think there’s just no choice; I think they’ve been very slow at doing this […] they ought to follow what’s going on in Tunisia”. We would like to inform you how elated we were to hear your unconditional support of the democratic aspirations of the Egyptian people. The first important step toward democratization took place on February 11 when a peoples’ led popular revolution forced President Hosni Mubarak to step down from power after ruling Egypt with an iron fist for 30 years.

What we find baffling is the contradictory signals you voice. Your appreciation of the importance of democratization in Egypt clashes with your long-held posture with regard to the application of the same principles in Africa in general and Ethiopia in particular. On a closer look, your critical approach to repressive governance does not appear to be applicable to Africa. We say this with justification and with the hope that you will reconsider your stand. In the past two decades you lent incalculable support, through your words and your actions, to Ethiopia’s minority dictator, Meles Zenawi, who has ruled Ethiopia for 20 years. We would like to draw your attention to Peter Gill’s book Famine and Foreigners. This insightful analysis provides the world with a detailed account of how you developed a warm and intimate friendship with the ruler of Ethiopia, and how you and Mr. Meles became brothers-in-arms against the operations of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the country. Our concern is not about personal friendship but about the policy implications the friendship implies. We are talking about the legitimacy that your warm friendship and endorsements gave to the head of one of the most repressive regimes in Africa today.

The Ethiopian ruler to whom you lent your undivided attention and support is the same person who has inflicted untold brutality and pain on innocent civilians, communities and the country through acts of alleged genocide, crimes against humanity and human rights violations. Mr. Meles Zenawi has stolen elections repeatedly; massacred hundreds and mass-detained over 40,000 citizens in Addis Ababa and other cities in 2005/06. Genocide Watch, Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, the New York Times, the State Department’s annual human rights reports and many other media, public, and human rights agencies have given careful account of these and other atrocities. The independent Global Financial Integrity group has documented billions of dollars of illicit outflow of funds under his watch.
You will agree with us that there are real consequences when internationally known intellectuals with power and influence provide legitimacy to dictators such as Mr. Meles Zenawi. On the ground, the lives of ordinary Ethiopians who are denied livelihoods, suffer from unemployment, live with hunger and face the indignities of living under a repressive system each and every day tell the real story. These Ethiopians have been caught up between your policy/ideological preference on the one hand, and your delight in finding an African ruler who is happy to play the African anti-neoliberal Robin to your Batman. Don’t you think this is unfair and unjust? We regret to say that, in your ideological and intellectual battles with the IMF in collaboration with Mr. Meles, you gave a dictator the benefits of your global status as a leading economist. He has used this to polish his international image. The cost to the Ethiopian people has been high. African intellectuals, academics and fair minded leaders find this kind of affinity with African dictators regrettable and unbecoming of leading economist like you. What saddens and amazes us is your endorsement of Mr. Meles Zenawi’s knowledge of economics and his intellectual acumen. This, we find utterly irresponsible and intellectually dishonest. Ethiopia has many intellectual leaders scattered around the globe. Mr. Meles Zenawi is not one of them. This disservice to the Ethiopian people and to the rest of Africans is contained in your book, Globalization and its Discontents, in which you state that Mr. Zenawi “demonstrated knowledge of economics—and indeed a creativity—that would have put him at the head of any of my university classes”. You speak highly of the way he rules the country, saying “Meles combined these intellectual attributes with personal integrity: no one doubted his honesty and there were few accusations of corruption within his government.”

How do we reconcile your assessments and conclusions with other experts and global institutions such Human Rights Watch, Transparency International, Global Financial Integrity, Mo Ibrahim, Oxford University and even the World Bank? . As far as we are concerned he has several times failed his economics tests miserably. His economic policies and programs have brought untold suffering to the Ethiopian people. In the event you are not aware of his many failures, we would like to identify a most recent one. Recently he imposed price caps on a dozen or so goods. When imposing his ill-fated price caps measure, Mr. Zenawi told us that he was doing it in order to curb the month-to-month double-digit inflation that the country was experiencing. As any student who has taken principles of economics course would have predicted, the colossal failure of the price cap measure has not only backfired on his regime; it has also brought untold suffering to the Ethiopian people. As we predicted, every negative and secondary effect of price caps that any economist would theorize has been realized in Ethiopia. Mr. Zenawi’s price caps measures qualify to be cited as lessons in how to mismanage an economy. As if this is not enough, Mr. Zenawi tried to shift the blame on the Ethiopian entrepreneurs and merchants. A few days before imposing the ill-fated price caps measure, he gathered about 584 businesspersons and accused them of price gauging, hoarding and engaging in unhealthy competition. He told them that he would “cut their fingers” unless they cooperate with him. For anyone who watched the entire taunting process (and the ones before it) and Mr. Zenawi's rants and the stunned faces and silence of the 584 businessmen and women, it was clear that the attendees were scared and did not know what to say. He met with and freighted the business community despite the fact that he had been informed (see, for example, http://www.pambazuka.org/en/category/features/67399) that the root causes of the price hikes and runaway inflation were the supply rigidities brought about by the opaque system that he imposed on the country. These include the creation and support of party-owned conglomerates which have dominated the vital sectors of the country’s economy, expansionary monetary policy (accompanied by negative real interest rates) and government spending- both of which have played their part in injecting liquidity into the system; lack of productivity; continuous devaluation of the birr - the latest one being the 20% devaluation announced on September 1st, 2010. To make matters worse, the latest information we have indicates that Mr. Zenawi’s government is contemplating to expand the price caps. The piling of mistakes continues unabatedly despite the fact that some of us had illustrated the negative ramifications of price caps (see, for example, http://gadaa.com/oduu/7573/2011/01/12/the-futility-and-damaging-effects-of-ethiopian-price-caps/) ahead of time so that lessons could be learned.

The world knows Mr. Zenawi as articulate when speaking with foreigners. Ethiopians know him as sinister and cunning, brutal and repressive. For these reasons, we are puzzled by your unreserved praise of his economics. It is a disservice to the majority of Ethiopians for you to give legitimacy to a leader whose family, party and endowments control the economy with an iron fist. He runs a party owned and controlled business empire through his wife, decimates the private sector, and instills fear into farmers of losing their land, and access to inputs. Worse, if they complain about unfairness in rural service provision they will be punished. Like us, the Economist magazine strongly differs with your assessment about Mr. Zenawi’s economics acumen, stating that the Ethiopian Government is “one of the most economically illiterate in the modern world”. A Wikileaked cable from the US Embassy to Berlin also stated: “Germany reported addressing Ethiopia's economic situation, namely hard currency and the poor investment climate, with Meles directly and being struck by what they described as Meles' poor understanding of economics”.

In no small part to your contribution, Mr. Zenawi’s appearance at Columbia University on 22, September, 2010, shocked the Ethiopian community in the Diaspora and in the country. His speech, the essence of which was the condemnation of neo-liberalism, was preceded by your warm welcome and introduction. You invited Mr. Zenawi to speak at World Leaders Forum at Columbia despite the fact that you were amply informed of his regime’s atrocities by many people of Ethiopian origin. Letters were sent to your institution via Lee C Bollinger, President of Colombia University, the student paper at Columbia, Columbia Spectator, and through several faculty members at Columbia. Your University’s website initially carried the following scandalous statement about the visit. We presume that you were not unaware of the statement.

“Under the seasoned governmental leadership of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, now in his fourth term, and vision of the Tigrai Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF) and Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), Ethiopia has made and continues to make progresses in many areas including in education, transportation, health and energy.”
Mr. Meles Zenawi is hardly a “seasoned leader.” Ethiopians and most objective observers know him as a brutal dictator and his regime is one of the most repressive and corrupt regimes in the world today. We would like to draw your attention to the latest Freedom House report which downgraded Ethiopia’s position from “Partly Free” to “Not Free.” Using the newly installed “Anti-Terrorism Proclamation” and “Charities and Societies Proclamation” law (CSO law), the regime has muzzled freedom of expression and criminalized human rights activities. Yes, progress has been made in infrastructure projects but at the expense of quality and fairness. For example, some of our own research and the researches of others indicate that, thanks to the huge sums of donor funds, student enrolment ratios have improved but quality has deteriorated. This fact has been acknowledged on August 26, 2010, when the Ministry of Education issued a directive that categorically banned all public and private higher learning institutions from running distance education programs, and all private higher learning institutions from offering on-campus law and teachers’ education programs.
In light of the above and the ample reliable documentation of repression, gross human rights abuses, alleged genocide, single party and endowment command and control of the national economy, massive unemployment, land grab and mismanagement of the national economy, we urge you to no longer give legitimacy to the dictatorial regime led by Mr. Meles Zenawi. We believe that your past support and endorsement may have overlooked the real facts on the ground. As a Nobel Prize winner and a reputed leading economist you have provided Mr. Zenawi status and legitimacy he and his regime do not deserve. He is universally identified as one of the worst dictators in Africa today. The democratic wave that brought down dictators in Tunisia and Egypt is not likely to stop there. Foreign Policy magazine reported that the Tunisian and Egyptian ex-presidents are not alone. It provided a line-up of the eight worst dictators that fall into this category. Meles Zenawi makes this membership. (“America’s Other Most Embarrassing Allies”.) Your video of February 2, 2011 has shown that you are able to see the downfall of autocratic rulers who choke their country and economy.

We urge you to be part of a legacy of prominent voices around the globe who believe in human freedoms and possibilities. At the end of the day, economic development is about people. You will agree with us that the nexus between economic development and good governance is so compelling that any form of dictatorship can’t be acceptable in North Africa, the Middle East or Sub-Saharan Africa.

We thank you in advance for your attention.

Sincerely,
On behalf of Ethiopian Development Policy Focus Group

1. Getachew Begashaw, Ph.D. Professor of Economics, W.R. Harper College, Chicago, IL (Member).
2. Aklog Birara, Ph.D. Senior Advisor (recent retiree, World Bank) and Adjunct Professor, Trinity University of Washington D.C. (Member).
3. Seid Hassan, Ph.D. Murray State University, Murray, KY (Member)