Energy and security issues in the Red Sea

Analysis by Gregory R. Copley

Major new energy issues are about to transform still further the strategic balance of the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea, with foreseeable consequences for the global energy market over the coming decade. Soon-to-be-evident new wealth in the Red Sea/Horn of Africa region will transform the intensity of conflict there, which in turn will affect not only the region, but the world’s most important trading route: the Red Sea/Suez sea line of communication (SLOC).

Much of the anticipated change is developing around the flood of new discoveries and exploitation of natural gas fields in the Indian Ocean region, particularly extending through Ethiopia, Egypt, and other countries of the Red Sea region. Apart from the impending influx of new energy wealth into the region, facilitating new levels of confidence and capability in the security environment, the boom of the “Gas Age” also seems set to promise — within a decade — an oversupply of gas to the world market, almost certainly precipitating a collapse in price for gas and petroleum.

The strategic balance in the Horn of Africa, and reaching through the Red Sea to Egypt and the Mediterranean, is changing rapidly — and in many respects is becoming more unstable — as political, geopolitical, economic, and ideological issues begin to clash. The war over the reunification of Somalia, incorporating both the old Italian Somaliland (now Somalia) and the Republic of Somaliland, has now become indisputable, and nominally-moderate Egypt has come down firmly on the side of reunifying the area under the clear dominance of an Islamist-dominated but anomic — essentially lawless — Somalia.

Egypt — with its unstable political transition underway at the same time as the discovery of increasing quantities of natural gas — has been covertly supporting a wide range of radical actions along the Red Sea littoral and in the Horn with the sole goal of ensuring that Ethiopia does not use its traditional heartland strength to be able to revive its dominance of the Red Sea and the sea lane which links to Egypt’s Suez Canal.

In the process, however, the Egyptian Government has given support to the same radical jihadist groups which fundamentally oppose Egyptian secular governance, which support Iranian expansion into the Red Sea/Africa framework, and which have transformed a strategically benign Ethiopia into one which must now accept confrontation with Egypt and its regional allies.

This situation has been compounded by the recent Islamist/pan-Somalist success in winning power in Somaliland, but of equal importance has been the first quiet stage of the transformation of Ethiopia into an energy exporting power. Ethiopia’s natural gas reserves which the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) in 2009 rated as zero and in early 2010 at one-trillion cubic feet (TCF), now have been demonstrated to be significant, and gas exports will begin within five years.

Malaysian State-owned oil and gas company Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) has now proven as much as four TCF of gas in its reserves in the Ogaden basin region of Ethiopia. Petronas is one of about 85 companies which have oil and gas exploration licenses in Ethiopia, but the Malaysian company is the first to begin its production phase, which should see a gas treatment plant and a gas pipeline from the Ogaden to Djibouti (at a total cost of $1.9-billion) on-line within five years. Estimated Ethiopian gas reserves, as of 2010 (not “proven reserves”), were reported at 12.46 TCF, but this figure was likely to be expanded frequently as new discoveries are reported.

Significantly, although the externally-supported and -armed Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) has continued to sustain sporadic armed contact with Ethiopian security forces into August 2010, the second week of August saw the senior ONLF leadership in Washington, DC, meeting secretly (under US sponsorship) with representatives of the Ethiopian Government. Just days before that, representatives of the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) also met in Washington, DC, with senior Ethiopian Government officials. Both the OLF and the ONLF have been receiving extensive logistical support, weapons, training, and funding from Eritrea, supported directly or indirectly by both Egypt and Iran.

It is now apparent to both the ONLF and OLF that their foreign patrons have been waging a losing battle against the Ethiopian Government, and that, with the growing strength and wealth of the Ethiopian Government, now is the time to consider coming to terms with Addis Ababa.

Any thought that the pan-Somalists, who have recently scored a major success in winning the Presidency of the Republic of Somaliland, can effectively make headway in the ethnically-Somali Ogaden region of Ethiopia have been quashed by the effective military action by the Ethiopian Defense Force (EDF) in its combat contacts with the pan-Somalists. The EDF units involved were almost entirely ethnically Somali (officers and men), and yet acted decisively to quash the Somalian forces fighting them.

Fighting around July 12, 2010, in the el-Dibir area of the Somaliland-Ethiopian border was largely credited in the media with being an EDF attack on civilians, but in fact it involved a clash with Islamist forces that were routed by the EDF, which seized 120 of the Islamists’ trucks and took them to the Ethiopian city of Jijiga.

At the core of all of this has been the proxy war waged by Iranian-backed Islamists, supported by the secular governments of Eritrea and Egypt, to keep Ethiopia landlocked. When the Ethiopian Government, some two years ago, began having an inkling that it might soon be in the gas exporting business, it started negotiations to build a pipeline to the Somaliland port of Berbera.

When it became clear that the UDUB Government of Somaliland was not well-prepared to contest the Presidential elections — which resulted in a pan-Somalist Islamist taking power in July 2010 — Ethiopia was forced to turn back to Djibouti as the only available seaport for the export of Ethiopian gas.

This is not an ideal situation for Ethiopia, given that Djibouti has traditionally held Ethiopia to ransom — given that it has, once again, a monopoly on Ethiopian trade imports and exports — but it is nonetheless viable for both countries.

At present, the Petronas plans to be exporting natural gas from the Ethiopian Ogaden basin within five years highlight the reality that Ethiopia will soon be in a position to compete economically against Egypt and Eritrea, which have been struggling to keep Ethiopia landlocked. Egypt’s strategic motive, expressed constantly by Cairo, has been to keep Ethiopia — which is vastly more fertile than Egypt and which controls the headwaters of the Blue Nile, which provides Egypt (and Sudan) with most of its water — from posing a strategic threat to Egypt by, potentially, cutting off the flow of Blue Nile waters. In fact, the policy has only served to make the Egyptian fear a reality.

Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit and Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif, speaking at the African Union summit in Kampala, Uganda, on July 27, 2010, appeared to strike a conciliatory note on the contentious issue of Nile water usage, but Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit slipped into his speech that Egypt sought a “re-unification” of Somalia, bringing Somaliland back into the union with Somalia, something which is clearly tantamount to bringing Somaliland back into civil war and crisis, rather than helping the entire Somali population. Significantly, this was a blow directed directly at Ethiopia and at the West which seeks stability in the Horn of Africa.

Egypt, pointedly, would rather have chaos on the Horn so that it could be the master of the Suez/Red Sea SLOC all the way through the Bab el-Mandeb adjacent to Somaliland, at the entrance to the Indian Ocean. This pointedly, also, meant that Egypt supported constraining Ethiopia from easy access to the Red Sea, which had once been dominated, at its lower reaches, by the Ethiopian Navy. Following the fall of the Dergue control of Ethiopia, Eritrea was encouraged by Ethiopia to declare its independence from Ethiopia in 1993. It did so, taking not only the historical geographic area of Eritrea (the onetime Bar Negus: Kingdom of the North), but also the coastal part of Ethiopia adjacent to Djibouti, and containing the Ethiopian port of Assab, which had never been part of traditional Eritrea, but had been part of the modern administrative zone of Eritrea under the Empire.

The result was that Ethiopia lost its access to the Red Sea, and had anticipated a friendly trading path through “new” Eritrea to the sea, because of the friendly separation of the territories. This was not to be, and Eritrea began making unacceptable demands on Ethiopia, which ultimately led to war, and to the inability of Ethiopia to use the ports of modern Eritrea. The result is that Eritrea is now economically destitute, and Eritrean Pres. Isayas Afawerke is under increasing pressure to see the Ethiopian Government fail.

However, it is also clear that Eritrea can no longer afford to militarily challenge Ethiopia, at least directly. Its military successes against Ethiopia in the 1998-2000 fighting can now not be replicated, given the declining economic fortunes of Eritrea and the rising fortunes of Ethiopia.

Moreover, the prospect of considerable income from gas exports begins to elevate Ethiopia into a new class of military capability. So if Eritrea can no longer directly attack Ethiopia militarily, it must be forced to re-double its proxy warfare, and yet even in this area Ethiopia now seems poised to be able to achieve settlements with the ONLF and OLF, two of the main proxy forces financed by Ethiopia and its allies.

And yet Ethiopia finds itself still restricted in its ability to satisfactorily control its export logistics, other than at the goodwill of Djibouti. Some Ethiopian sources have been saying that should Eritrea again provoke a war, then Ethiopia should sieze back the ports in independent Eritrea which were once Ethiopian ports, particularly Assab, which was never part of “traditional” Eritrea.

Moreover, in the South-Eastern part of modern Eritrea, the area around Assab, there is already great local hostility to being under control of Asmara (the Eritrean capital), and the Eritrean Government of Isayas Afewerke. This hostility takes the form of armed insurrection by ethnic Afars. The Afar Revolutionary Democratic Union (ARDU) has engaged in combat operations since 1993 against the Eritrean Government. They have commanded the attention of brigade-sized Eritrean Government forces, which have unsuccessfully attempted to curb the ARDU. ARDU itself is part of the Alliance of Eritrean National Forces (AENF), an umbrella for opposition groups, mostly Muslim, fighting the Isayas Government.

Ethiopia has, like Eritrea, used proxy forces against its adversarial neighbor. The predominantly Muslim Eritrean Liberation Front (ELF) has been based out of Addis Ababa since Eritrean independence, and continues to fight the Isayas Government in Asmara. But the scale of Ethiopian proxy warfare against Eritrea is nothing like Eritrea’s use of all available proxy resources against Ethiopia. The radical Islamist forces operating in Somalia have long been supported by Eritrea, along with their support from Iran, Egypt, and Libya, as a means of tying down Ethiopian forces and promoting secessionist moves by ethnic Somalis and Oromos in Ethiopia.

Now, unlike a year or two ago, Eritrea recognizes that it can no longer give Ethiopia a pretext to go to war, because it would lose that conflict. On the other hand, Ethiopia’s need for the recovery of its Red Sea access may well have been forced by the combined efforts which recently resulted in, effectively, the loss of access through the Republic of Somaliland, which has succumbed, with broad Eritrean, Iranian, and other aid, to pan-Somalist, Islamist governance. So Ethiopia must bow to whatever demands Djibouti may make on it, in order to use the port of Djibouti, or else Addis Ababa must find a way to take back its territory in the south-eastern, Afar, area of what is the modern Eritrean state.

It would be logical, then, to assume that Addis Ababa would find ways to promote the demands for independence or separation from Eritrea made by ARDU and others. Success, or momentum, by these anti-Isayas forces could eventually trigger Ethiopian military support.

Egypt, however, has been using Eritrea as its own proxy, and such a development might cause Cairo to openly support Eritrea in a military confrontation with Ethiopia, or else face the prospect of a revived Ethiopian naval presence in the Red Sea, and growing Ethiopian wealth and confidence to challenge Egypt and Sudan on the question of the use of Blue Nile waters.

In all of this, the stability of the Red Sea/Suez global SLOC is threatened, and no end is yet to be seen in the anomie — the lawlessness — of Somalia, now being broadened to include Somaliland. As well, the mounting pace of natural gas discovery and exploitation in the region (and more broadly) will — contrary to conventional linear extrapolations of energy market trends — transform global energy markets, and bring about a major shift toward the use of gas, probably to the point of a supply-dominated marketplace causing price falls within a decade.

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Oh! Ethiopia - 10% Growth and 90% Poverty

By Ephrem Madebo

"But the OPDO development is - development and repression at the same time. They can build roads to the moon but I won't vote for them until we're equal" Anonymous
Oromo Peasant

The above quote is not a random view of the Oromo peasant interviewed by Jason McLure of the Bloomberg News, or it is not an isolated remark made by a displeased individual in the Oromia region; it’s a reality that hovers all over Ethiopia, and it’s a bedtime story that parents tell to their children. It is not an opinion shaped by the affluent, orby the power mongers, as the TPLF gangs would claim; it is a collective belief that a large majority of Ethiopians share regardless of ethnic, religious, or political affiliations.

The failure of half a century of Western development model, and the recent collateral damage caused by the global financial melt-down have given reason for a growing number of African leaders to question the validity of democratic models of society for economic development in Africa. As a result, some politicians in the developing world have fell in love with the development models of authoritarian countries like China. The leading representative of this group is Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia whose past was highly influenced by the “Revolutionary Democracy” principles of Chairman Mao of China and Enver Hoxha of Albania. Meles Zenawi and his friends believe that democratic procedures are inconsistent with reliable economic development models. Hence, they preach false development sermons, muffle democratic rights, and force themselves into power over and over again. As the Holy Bible says: “They plot injustice and say,” We have devised a perfect plan!" Psalm 64:6 On May 25, 2010 [in his “victory” speech], in front of a shocked nation and a puzzled international audience; Meles Zenawi attributed his party’s 99.6% electoral victory to his - record “double-digit economic growth”. A very important question here is - Is there any evidence for this bogus claim? I guess no one seems tocare for the answer as long as the US, UK, EU, the World Bank and the IMF are willing to take TPLF’s carefully manipulated garbage-in and garbage-out statistics at its face value.

To most Ethiopians the phrase double-digit economic growth is gibberish. To many poor Ethiopians, economic growth is real if and only if it changes their life. So the question is, are Ethiopians better-off today than they were 20 years ago? According to the World Bank, the level of standard of living in Ethiopia today is the same as it was 40 years ago.

So who is benefiting from Zenawi’s double-digit economic growth?

Evidently, everyone agrees that good governance is an inexorable ingredient for economic growth in any country. Today, the word “good governance” is a buzz word used by anyone including bad governments such as the Ethiopian regime. To know what “good governance” is, one should first know what governance is. Governance is a social phenomenon that embraces traditions and institutions by which political power or authority is exercised. Tradition and institutions are important, but even more important is the process by which governments are selected, monitored and replaced; the capacity of the government to effectively formulate and implement sound policies; and the respect of citizens and the state for the institutions that govern economic and social interactions among them.

The following table compares Ethiopia and Ghana using this definition of governance and six Government Indicators. To set the stage for the reader, both Ghana and Ethiopia claim to be democratic nations, there is election in both countries, and there was/is a history of dictatorship in both countries. At one moment in their history, Ghana and Ethiopia were the only independent black African nations and their leaders were fathers of the Pan African movement. Despite what authorities in these two counties say about their respective countries, let’s have a closer look at the evidence gathered by independent organizations.

NB: Higher values correspond to better governance outcomes. For example, on the “Rule of Law” row, the # 25 indicates that the Rule of Law status in Ethiopia is better only from 25% of the countries covered by the study. The study covered 212 countries and territories.

In the first table, Ghana performed way better than Ethiopia in all of the measured areas which means that the institutional atmosphere in Ghana is conducive for economic growth. However, in the second table, Ethiopia’s economy seems to be growing at a faster rate than Ghana. What is the source of this paradox? The answer to this question is found in the first raw of the first table (Voice & Accountability).The Ethiopian regime is not accountable for anything it does; it reports a 12% growth rate when it actually is growing at a much lower rate. In Ethiopia, nominal growth rates are reported as real growth rates. Economics 101 tells us that there is a huge difference between real and nominal growth rates, but to those who graduate from the Ethiopian Civil ServiceCollege, these differences don’t matter - what maters is what the big boss says.

We all know that the TPLF regime is the father of all lies and the man at the helm of this regime is a pathological liar. On May 23, 2010, on his way back form Adwa to Addis Ababa, Meles Zeanwi said: “Imagine a government which has delivered double-digit growth rates for over seven years losing an election anywhere on earth. It is unheard of for such a phenomenon to happen”. Forget seven years, can anyone show me doubledigit growth of the Ethiopian economy for just four years (even using the regime’s cooked numbers). According to the above CIA data, from 2003 to 2010, the Ethiopian economy grew in double digit figures for only four years (2005, 2007 & 2008). So what was Meles Zenawi referring when he mentioned 7 years of double digit economic growth? Is it the Ethiopian economy, or his own bank account? (Where the difference between the two is blurred)

Ethiopia is a predominantly an agrarian country where the agricultural sector accounts for about 45% of GDP and 85% of total employment. In the last five years, the TPLF regime has reported that agricultural production has gone up by 40%, and at the mean time the regime has fabricated incoherent statistical numbers to substantiate its hard to believe claim. In fact, the few, but ardent supporters of the regime have already started talking “Green Revolution” - South East Asia’s miracle of the 1950s and 1960s. The Green Revolution has effectively averted famine and paved the path for industrialization in India and Pakistan. On the contrary, Ethiopia’s 40% increase in agricultural production has not even changed the image of Ethiopia as the international symbol of hunger, let alone improving the standard of living of the population. Asia’s Green Revolution is characterized by a series of research, development, and technology transfer initiatives where as Ethiopia’s puzzling 40 percent agricultural growth occurred without any comparable increase in fertilizer use, irrigation, seed variety, technology transfer, or increase in farmland area. Besides, after a decade of so called “double digit economic growth”, Ethiopia is the 2nd poorest nation on the planet and the highest food aid recipient in Africa. So where is the 40% increase in agricultural output?

Any economic policy that does not safeguard the right of the people to indiscriminately use national resources and create the opportunity for personal and national economic growth is a failed policy. Besides, Development does not just involve the physical aspects of growth, or it is not just a mere display of statistics. Development is a multidimensional tangible phenomenon measured by life expectancy, adult literacy, access to all three levels of education, and average income of the population. In the words of Amartya Kumar Sen “Development is the expansion of capabilities and having the freedom to choose between different ways of thinking”

As the table below vividly shows, the so called “5th fastest growing economy” in the world is now reported to be the second poorest nation in the world, better only than the land locked West African nation of Niger. According to the most recent MPI (Multidimensional Poverty Index) developed by Oxford University (with support from the U.N.), 90% of Ethiopians live in poverty and 39% live on at least $1.25 a day [can’t afford Sausage Biscuit]. It is disheartening to know that Ethiopia is poorer than terror infested,
lawless, and state less Somalia. No one knows, or no one reports how slow or how fast the Somalia economy is growing, but no matter what, it is better than Zeanwi’s double – digit growing economy

Logically, there is an inverse relationship between the rate of poverty and the rate of economic growth; and the logic is that when the economy grows poverty declines. But, the misguided economic policy of the TPLF regime defies even logical relationships that in Ethiopia, poverty increases when the economy grows at a faster rate. I personally would have believed TPLF’s double-digit growth fairytale if the Ethiopian economy was providing better opportunities to a good portion of the population without any deterioration of the other portion. But, in Ethiopia, less than 5% of the population is getting richer at the cost of 90% of the population. Sadly, in contrast to this depressing reality, EFFORT's net worth is skyrocketing at a rate that dwarfs the Dow Jones and the FTSE 100 combined. On the other hand, riding free on our gold, the Saudi mogul [Al- Amoudi,] is climbing fast on the Forbes list of billionaires. I believe no more explanation is needed and no proof is required. Now we know for sure where the sweat and blood of poor Ethiopians is going, and we also know that the US, UK and the EU are helping the 5% rich get richer and the 90% poor get poorer. No Human being is allergic to development and Ethiopians who struggle for freedom and democracy are no exceptions. We love development more than we hate tyranny. None of our personal success is soothing and any of our individual achievement is captivating than seeing a just, democratic, and prosperous Ethiopia that treats all of its citizens equally. Regardless of our deep-seated political differences with the ruling ethnic minority regime in Ethiopia, we do value development efforts when the claimed growth is real, verifiable, and most importantly, when it changes living conditions in our country.

We also believe that economic growth increases the nation’s total wealth and reduces poverty. But, let’s not forget the lessons of history that economic growth is not always followed by similar progress in human development. After two decades of cooking economic data, it has become very clear that Ethiopia’s much heralded nominal economic growth was achieved at the cost of greater inequality, higher unemployment, high inflation, weakened democracy and national humiliation. In his futile effort to control the Ethiopian Diaspora and silence the only free voice of the people of Ethiopia, Meles Zenawi has ordered his attack dogs to organize demonstration in Washington, DC in support of his faulty development claims. Basically, the main purpose of yesterday’s demonstration was to garner support for his hated regime.

However, Zenawi and his thugs clearly know that the Ethiopian Diaspora supports freedom, not tyranny. Stands for democracy, not for ethnocracy. Hence, they organized the demonstration around the hot button issue of the Nile River hopping the Diaspora will follow them blindly. If Zenawi’s blind supporters were honest in their cause, they should have demonstrated in front of the Egyptian embassy than wasting their already wasted time in front of the Whitehouse and the State Department. Remember, the Nile is neither the Mississippi nor the Potomac River. All in all, Thursday’s demonstration [by Zenawi’s thugs] in Washington, DC must serve as a wake-up call for Ethiopians that fight for freedom and equality. We live on the land of freedom; we should never allow enemies of freedom to cross the oceans and tamper with our freedom. For the last 15 years, especially after the 2005 election, we have been hearing TPLF’s boring “FDD” propaganda [Federalism, Democracy, and Development]. We were either fooled or numbed, but no more! We Ethiopians should rise from all walks of life as the struggle for freedom is not something that should be left for political organizations alone. Our religious leaders must listen to the words of their creator and open their mouth whenever they see injustice.
To our Patriarch, Cardinal and Pastors: The Holy Bible says: Do not pervert justice or show partiality. Do not accept bribe, for a bribe surely blinds the eyes of the wise and twists the word of the righteous. Follow justice and justice alone. Deuteronomy 16:19
To our Imams and Muftis: The Holy Quran says: “O you who believe! Stand out firmly for justice, as witnesses to Allah, even if it be against yourselves, your parents, and your relatives, or whether it is against the rich or the poor...” (Quran 4:135)
To our political leaders: Some of you have constantly dwelt in the past, and some of you have tried to pull us back to the past. You’ve disagreed for eternity and bickered for so long, allowing your people to be dominated by ruthless dictators and to be looted by those who have no bound. You must understand that the source of our victory is unity, and our unity must grow from our experience of the past and most importantly it should grow out of striving for the future. If you can’t stand together and lead us to the hope of the future, I’m afraid that the future will be the past again. We might not know what the future holds, but we must know who holds the future for Ethiopia. The TPLF regime is an enemy to all of us, therefore, we must all hang together, or let there be no doubt that Meles Zenawi hangs us all together.

We cannot and we must not be prisoners of the past. The past may help us in defining the future, but we can never fix the past and may be not be able to plan the future by the past. We must work together with reason to escape the past and everything bad in it. But our journey of evading the past must start by healing each other’s wounds of the past and by adding something better to it. Let’s make a shift from ‘popcorn’ politics and move to the real politics of emancipating people!

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The writer, human rights activist Ephrem Madebo, can be reachedebini23@yahoo.com

COMPARING APPLES AND ORANGES

By Mathza, 08/30/10
This piece is a reaction to Ephrem Madebo’s Oh! Ethiopia - 10% Growth and 90% Poverty (nazret.com, 08/06/10).

The article starts by the following quotation purported to have been said by an anonymous peasant: "But the OPDO development is - development and repression at the same time. They can build roads to the moon but I won't vote for them until we're equal." It is doubtful that a peasant uttered such statements. If anything it implies that the author is disingenuous. That the article is inundated with the usual lies, fabrications, exaggerations, spinning, etc. confirms my assumption. This piece is limited to the part comparing Ethiopia with other African countries.

Like his likes, the author compares Ethiopia with other African countries, particularly Ghana in this case. Such comparisons are inappropriate for a number of reasons. These include:

1. Ghana inherited a modern government system of administration that was established by colonial Britain. All the Ghanaian governments had to do was to introduce some changes to suit the needs created by the new situation.

2. Ghana was and is a peaceful and stable country.

3. Ghana was and is fortunate not to have experienced/experiencing recurring natural disasters.

4. Ghana inherited hundreds of millions of British Pounds when it became independent.
1. Administrative system

The situation pertaining to Ethiopia was just the reverse of that of Ghana. There was no ready-made modern system of governance. There were no Ethiopians with exposure to and experiences in modern administration. Ethiopia, therefore, had to start from scratch and go through the agonizingly slow process of change. Government services provided to the public until recently was awkwardly complicated, time consuming and wide open for corruption. The highly successful administrative improvement recently introduced and being introduced through business process re-engineering (BPR) confirms this fact. Thanks to BPR, providing government services that used to take years, months are now done in days, hours and minutes, depending upon the case. Regarding providing services to business, according to Newsweek magazine—which ranks Ethiopia 107 of 183 countries on ease of doing business—it takes nine days to start a new business. The profusion of praise by the public is unequivocal proof of these dramatic changes.

As Ghana, or any African country for that matter, Ethiopia has multiple cultures and traditions that have both negative and positive aspects. The negative side that included peoples’ wrong attitude to work coupled with resistance to change hampered the adoption of appropriate methods of governance and therefore progress. The attitude of pregnant women in the countryside is a good example. According to UNIRIN (VOA, 8/19/10) an interview with such women revealed that they have more confidence on the traditional midwives than on the trained midwives.

There was a time when parents refused to send their children to modern schools. Under the circumstances, it took a long time to change the attitude of the people to modern education. Building modern schools and producing teachers was a slow process. In the 1940s there were a handful of schools in the country. The first college was opened in the 1950s. It was for quite some time graduating students in the tens, not in the hundreds. It is apparent that there was a dearth of graduates at the tertiary level until recently. This was made worse by lack of peace, which caused exodus of the educated.

2. Peace and stability
Peace is a critical prerequisite for good governance and development as well as for attracting foreign investment. Unfortunately, Ethiopia, unlike Ghana, was a victim of internal conflicts and external aggressions. The period comprising the second half of the 18th century and the first half of the 19th century was known as Zemene Mesafint when the warlords fought one another. Although Emperor Tewodros II ended this era his rule was not, unfortunately, that peaceful. Emperor Yohannes IV was totally engaged defending the country from many foreign aggressions and occupations of Ethiopian territories by the Turks, Egyptians, Italians and Mahdists of Sudan. Emperor Menelik II was preoccupied with extending his empire and fighting the Italian invaders. There was relative peace for part of the long rule of Emperor Haile Sellassie I. It was punctuated by uprisings in parts of the country and fighting the Eritrean liberation fronts and Somali aggression. The Mengistu regime was mired in the so-called red terror, in fighting liberation fronts and in defending Somali invasion.


In addition to skirmishes with liberation fronts the EPRDF government had to ward the Eritrean aggression off. It responded to the Somali government for military help and to threats from Somali extreme elements who declared jihad on Ethiopia. During the first half of its administration the government was preoccupied bringing peace and stability, introducing and implementing unity in diversity (federal structure) that saved the country from disintegration, renovating damaged infrastructures, reversing the communist economic system, liberalizing trade and investment, planning and implementing social and economic activities, etc. It is obvious that there is no country in Africa that had had to face peace and stability related complex conditions not conducive for development spanning over two centuries.


3. Natural calamities

The natural calamities that devastated Ethiopia are known worldwide. Recurring drought with increasing frequencies was/is the most devastating. This state of affairs coupled with high rate of population increase (population doubling during the rule of the current government) is the root cause of poverty of the people, especially in the countryside where about 85% of them lives. This is, among other reasons, why the government accorded the highest priority to eradication of poverty.

4. Resources

The colonial powers in Africa carried out researches, surveys, explorations, prospecting, etc. to find and exploit raw materials to feed their industries. By the time African countries got independence, most of them had agricultural products and minerals that earned them foreign currency. Ghana, for instance, had a huge foreign currency reserve in the hundreds (about 600) of millions of British Pounds. Ethiopia had practically nothing to export, both agricultural and mineral, excepting coffee and gold, albeit earning relatively small foreign currency. Unlike other African countries its resources were, therefore, unknown for the simple reason that nothing was done to determine its potential. It, therefore, lacked the resources it needed to develop.


Based on the above impediments it is crystal clear that the author has compared oranges with apples. Three of the six indicators he presented as “evidence gathered by independent organizations” to prove his point demonstrate that Ethiopia has shown progress whereas Ghana stagnated. These that he ignored relate to government effectiveness, regulatory quality and rule of law, evidently, important indicators.

As for rates of economic growth highlighted in the title of his article in which Ghana trails behind Ethiopia, the author claims Ethiopia’s is not real growth rate. My understanding as a non-economist is that real growth takes into account inflation. If this is true then with the high to very high inflation the country experienced the real rate of growth should have been negative and not “much lower rate” (than the double-digit) the author claims. Besides his assertion implies that the Ethiopian and Ghanaian figures in his table represent normal (not adjusted for inflation) and real growth rates respectively. In other words, he is telling us that his source of information (CIA World Face Book) is responsible for such unprofessional blunder.

The author repeats what his likes have been saying ad nausea, i.e., the double-digit growth rate did not translate into poverty reduction. Of course it did unless they mean 100% reduction that is not possible even in developed economies. Donor countries and international organizations testify to the poverty reduction and predict that Ethiopia is likely to reach the United Nations Millennium Development Goals by 2015. The latest affirmation comes from the IMF Resident Representative in Ethiopia. “The lifestyle of the people is getting better as compared to the past decades” is one among his several expressions praising the fast economic growth in Ethiopia.


Let me quote myself in support of the above fact: “Another factor indicative of the relative well being of an increasing number of people is the reduction of the number of people below the poverty line. Despite population pressure, the level of poverty fell from 59% during the 1990s to 38.7% in 2005 (United Nations and the World Bank). As this happened before the fast economic growth started it is quite likely that the level is substantially lower at present. In fact, according to Mr. Wondimu Asamnew, Charge d'affair, Ethiopian Embassy in DC, it now stands at 27%. (UNBELIEVABLE DENIALS AND IMPRACTICAL PROMISES By Mathza, May 10, 2010.) (more in http://www.waltainfo.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=21409&Itemid=82). According to another source, in 1995, 61 percent of the population was below the poverty line meaning people survived on $1.25 or less a day. This figure had already declined to 39 percent by 2007 and has continued to decline.

The author and his likes deny the authenticity of statistical figures on Ethiopia when it is not to their liking; they are quick to accept and exalt figures from the same or other sources that paint dismal pictures of Ethiopia. The latest example that is being quoted left and right is Ethiopia is the second poorest country in the world, according to the Oxford University’s new Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI). The author tells us the MPI is a replacement for the United Nations Human Poverty Index (HPI). Has the United Nations representing the world community announced its adoption? I am not aware that this is so.

Let us anyway assume this is true. Why do such Diaspora Ethiopians pretend to be shocked to hear such news when they are very aware of the obstacles reviewed above? Why do they ascribe the abject poverty and backwardness of Ethiopia to the EPRDF government? Is it not such pathetic situation that lead the EPRDF government to declare poverty the number one enemy of the Ethiopian people?

It should be noted here that the MPI for Ethiopia is based on 2005 data that the author did not dare to reveal. In view of the double-digit growth starting in 2004 it is not likely that the ranking reflects the current situation. In fact, the successes achieved in education and health, two of the same three components of the MPI and HPI since 2005 must have catapulted the Ethiopian MPI ranking to a substantially higher level. There is no doubt that the improved standard of living (the third component) of a segment of the population has contributed to this as well.

Let us now look at other recent rankings. According to recent issue of Newsweek magazine, “Ethiopia ranks as the 94th…in the World's 100 best countries list.” The ranking is, among others factors, based on “quality of life, economic dynamism, education, health care, transparency and political environment.” It is apparent that Newsweek contradicts the MPI despite the fact that both the MPI and HPI seem to have used a number of the same factors for their rankings. It is possible that the Newsweek ranking is based on more recent data. Another ranking relates to World's Happiest Countries. A Gallup World Poll conducted in 2005-2009 in 155 countries ranks Ethiopia 108th. This, by the way, manifests the good will of the people towards the EPRDF resulting in its landslide victory in the last elections.

Another argument the author resorted to is that the “economic growth was achieved at the cost of greater inequality” Now, that he inadvertently admits that there was economic growth of such magnitude, how did this growth come about? Growth implies expanding demand for products and services. Difficulty keeping pace with demand for electricity and telecommunication services and acute shortages of sugar and cement in the country as well as increasing transport inadequacy in Addis Ababa—all resulting from dramatic development (see video on Addis in 24 hours)—come to mind. These show that the number of Ethiopians who can afford to buy goods and services is increasing at a fast rate. In other words, more and more people are finding their standard of living improving. As a result, both local and foreign investors have been and are investing to take advantage of very fast growing demand for products and services. One could have an idea of the magnitude of flows of foreign direct investment by referring to Turkish investors. According to the Turkish Ambassador to Ethiopia—who finds “Ethiopia’s economic growth is very impressive for sure”—Turkish investors are currently implementing 149 projects with an investment outlay of US$819 millions.

It is obvious from the above four adverse conditions that comparing Ethiopia with Ghana is like comparing apples and oranges. It is sad and nauseating on the part of the author and the hate-monger miniscule vociferous Diaspora Ethiopians who day in day out would say, write and do anything to tarnish the image of Ethiopia and Ethiopians. They have the audacity not only to endlessly repeat negative information on Ethiopia no matter its origin (including theirs), authenticity or relevancy but also to side with foreign countries and groups working against Ethiopia. Why? The main reason is obsessive selfish desire to reverse the federal system to their dream of nostalgic unitary rule with them at the helm. It is futile. As in the past, the only result of their subversive activities, including begging donors to deny aid to Ethiopia, may, perhaps, temporarily slow down progress in peace, good governance and development. No wonder, the Ethiopian people whom they continue to humiliate held them responsible for such traitorous behavior and acts by overwhelmingly denying their votes in the recent elections.

It’s the development, stupid!

By Ephrem Madebo, 31 August 2010 — Just days after the ground invasion of Iraq, 90% Americans approved President Herbert Bush’s job performance. In just a little over a year, President Bush’s job performance rating was 29%; and he eventually lost his re-election bid to Bill Clinton. Why? It’s the economy, stupid. President Barak Obama enjoyed 69% job approval rating in 2009, in August 2010; his approval rating was 42%. Why? Well, the jobless economic recovery may not be stupid, but it’s not astute either.

In Ethiopia, the economy has been dormant for 12 of the past 19 years, but the man and party responsible for the dormancy are guaranteed to stay in power at least until 2015. In the last seven years, larger amounts of foreign aid and loan have over heated the Ethiopian economy. However, the heat of the economy gave more heat for less than 5% Ethiopians and left 95% of the population in the cold. If this is what Zenawi’s regime tells us- “economic development” It’s not only the development that is stupid - It’s the regime, Stupid!

The scope of economic development includes the process and policies by which a nation improves the economic, political, and social well-being of its people. In the last five years, the news from Addis Ababa has been all about “economic development”. I do value development, and nothing puts smile on my face than the news of economic development in my native country, Ethiopia. But, I also believe in the value of evidence and I am deeply cynical of anything contrary to reason or lacking evidence. I believe in having an open mind - ready to contemplate new ideas backed by persuasive evidence - but not an empty one. I am not ready to accept Zenawi’s development news that has neither sense, nor evidence.

The United Kingdom, a country that provides huge capital to Zenawi’s regime is the founding member of the UN; and it has one of the finest research universities in the world [Oxford]. According to the most recent poverty study carried by Oxford University and the UN, Ethiopia is the second poorest nation in the world. I’m sure Zenawi has been telling his UK counterpart about seven years of double-digit economic growth. Well, Zenawi tells anything anyone as long as he is getting dollar or pound. The question is why does the UK believe him? Who does PM David Cameron trust, the UN, an organization founded by his country? Oxford University (BNC, his alma mater)? Or, he just trusts Meles Zenawi, a person that has no acquaintance with the truth? I’m sure my inquiry gets a prompt reply from the British Primer, otherwise; he must know that the cruelest lies are often told in silence. As to Mr. Zenawi, his lies may take care of the present, but not the future.

Ethiopia has an adult population of about 43.6 million. Forty six percent or about 20 million of Ethiopia’s adult population wants to leave the country due to acute poverty, political repression, human right abuse and lack of educational opportunities. Imagine 46% of the work force wants to get out of a fast democratizing country whose economy is growing in double-digit numbers. What a Joke! Other than Egypt, no other African nation receives financial aid in excess of $3 billion per annum, and no country in Africa boasts double-digit economic growth like Ethiopia. Paradoxically, no country in Africa has poor economic, social or political performance like Ethiopia. Let’s closely look at the following table.

countries life exp. infant mort. cellphone in millions agri in economy agri workforce percentage roadway in km

ethiopia   55.4 80.     8 3.2  43.5%  85%  36,469

kenya 58  54.7  16.3 19.7% 75% 160,886

uganda52.7 64.8 8.56 22.5% 82% 70,746

ghana 60.1 51.2 11.5 33.6% 56% 62,221

For a long time Ethiopia’s nickname was the “infant death trap” of Africa. After 20 years of Zenawis’ rule, 8% new born Ethiopians do not live to see their first birth day; and Ethiopia is still Africa’s infant death trap. With most Africans living on $2 a day or less, no one expected Africa to do well in the cell phone market. But, things changed when African nations began to privatize their telephone monopolies in the mid-1990. Today, cell phones are catapulting rural Africa to the 21st century. Thanks to Ethiopia’s Mr. “Double-digit” growth man, Ethiopia is the only country that resisted privatization; and as a result, only one in 27 Ethiopians has a cell phone while one in 11 Africans is a mobile subscriber. In Kenya, just south of the boarder, 16.3 million Kenyans [42%] enjoy the use of mobile technology, in Ethiopia; only 3.2 million Ethiopians [3.7%] have access to mobile technology.

Seventy two million [85%] Ethiopians are farmers, but they cannot feed themselves, and as a result 16 million Ethiopians face starvation. Thirteen million Ghanaians [56%] are farmers. Today, Ghana is a leading exporter of farm products, and three meals a day is the norm in Ghana, not the exception. Both Ghana and Ethiopia were dogged by dictatorship, poverty & instability. Today, Ghana is a vibrant democracy in Africa and the future of Ghana is at the good hand of Ghanaians. Ethiopia is the symbol of ethnic dictatorship where 90% of its population lives in acute poverty, and the future of Ethiopians is darker than the darkest night.

Kenya, with a population of 39 million and a total land area of 580,367 sq km has 160, 856 kilometers of roadway while Ethiopia with more than twice the population of Kenya and a total land area of 1,104,300 sq km has only 36, 469 kilometers of roadway. Unlike Ghana, Kenya is not the beacon of democracy in Africa, but still Kenyans enjoy a much better freedom of speech, freedom of press and independent judiciary than Ethiopians. Just last week Kenya ratified a new constitution while its northern border is stuck with a constitution even the authors themselves don’t respect. The above table shows that the three countries are much better than Ethiopia in almost all of the economic indicators, but none of the leaders of those nations brags double-digit economic growth. Ghana, Uganda and Kenya in aggregate received less financial assistance than Ethiopia in the last five years.

In October 2008, Meles told his parliament that the global Financial Crisis will have little effect on Ethiopia. He said: “our financial structure is not as liberalized as those of affected countries and the economy is not intertwined to Western economies to face a crisis” But, according to the World Bank, Ethiopia is among the most vulnerable group of countries with high exposure to the Financial Crisis. This view is shared by Sukwinder Singh, IMF Resident Representative in Ethiopia who said: “Ethiopia’s economy was seriously affected by the financial crisis”. At the end of 2009 the IMF provided Ethiopia with $420 million loan to cope with the financial crisis, a crisis that Zenawi wrongly believed will have no effect on his aid sensitive economy. To substantiate his baseless claim, Meles Zenawi estimated a 2009 GDP growth of 11.2%, however, his overestimates were latter revised to 7.5% (IMF, 2009b) and 6% (World Bank, 2009). This simply shows us that unless the IMF and the World Bank cross check and validate Zenawi’s cooked economic numbers, Zenawi is the best “cook” that the West has never seen.

Ethiopia is quickly becoming a strange place in which beneficiaries of the regime and the West seem able to doubt almost everything (such as the certainty of the fall of tyranny and the inevitable victory of freedom) and yet these same people are willing to believe almost anything (such as poverty and the economy growing at the same rate) with little or no regard for rationality or evidence. Ethiopia is an extremely poor country where effects of economic growth are hard to miss. In a country where people live on fewer than two dollars a day, the slightest change in income will easily be felt throughout the nation, let alone 7 years of double-digit economic growth. But, a nation as a whole can never prosper when every government contract and sub-contract is awarded to ethnically managed parastatals. Poor Ethiopians will not benefit from construction projects when construction firms, suppliers and movers of building material, and the buildings built are owned by the same group of ethnically associated people.

The Ethiopian economy performed very poor in the last decade of the 20th century. The average GDP growth rate from 1990 to 2001 was – 0.9%. The annual GDP per capita growth was estimated at -2.6% and the average GDP per capita was estimated at $106 (Anders et al, 2000). The poor performance of the economy during the decade is attributed to the 1998-2000 war, negligible foreign aid and TPLF’s concentration on how to penetrate and control all sectors of the nation’s economy than showing any effort on economic growth.

After the dubious privatization that literally transferred Ethiopia’s sate owned enterprises from public domain to the TPLF party parastatals, the IMF, the World Bank and donor nations started pumping capital to the Ethiopian regime. The heavy dose of foreign fund eventually resuscitated the otherwise dying economy. Ever since, the Ethiopian economy has displayed some signs of GDP growth, but the Population, hunger, and poverty grew at a much faster rate than the GDP because the lion’s share of the nation’s industrial, agricultural, financial, transport and construction institutions were owned and operated by the TPLF party (EFFORT) and by the party heavy weights who benefited from the GDP growth and got richer and richer while Ethiopia as a nation maintained its last spot on the global poverty list. Besides, Ethiopia has one of the most regressive land policies in Africa which is designed to give the government more controlling power over the rural population. Ethiopia’s land policy has impeded development within the agricultural and several other key sectors. If we divide the last 15 years [since privatization] income of Ethiopia into thirds, we find that the top ten percent received half, the next 10 percent received a fifth, and the bottom eighty percent claimed the rest. The US, UK, the EU, the World Bank and the IMF must understand that unless this lop-sided and ethnic oriented growth is checked in any way possible, Ethiopia’s so called double-digit economic growth means nothing more than double-digit poverty growth.

I believe, it is also the belief of the Ethiopian people that such words as improvement, growth, achievement and success have no meaning without actual progress and change in the day-to-day life of people. The principle of economic development lies in the human choice, and the Ethiopian people did not choose the economic system or the regime that runs the system.

The writer can be reached at ebini23@yahoo.com.

The Ethiopian Economy: Big Numbers and Empty Bellies

By Fekade Shewakena.
Poverty is Ethiopia’s persistent reality and has long been the country’s definer. The country’s mainstay, agriculture, is predominantly subsistence and is still only one drought season away from a multimillion killer famine unless we beg in time. Meles Zenawi often talks of poverty as being the number one problem of the country. I have yet to meet any Ethiopian who disagrees with this. But there are disagreements on the kinds of approaches, economic and political governance and accountability and the kind of policy tools we must use to fight poverty. Had we been a lucky, vibrant and freely debating country, these disagreements and debates should have been considered healthy and encouraged.
There are a number of people outside of the government, including myself, who doubt the double digit growth claim and the validity of the coming five year plan that promises ‘cows in the sky’. Many including non-Ethiopians believe it is exaggerated at best or fabricated at worst for political purposes. Obviously, the regime and its cronies have the motive of justifying their proposed authoritarian nanny-state solution, the so called developmental state, which is to be led by a vanguard party – the EPRDF with Mr. Zenawi at the helm. Mr. Zenawi’s recent argument against the neoliberal and market fundamentalist boogeyman which he created out of thin air may be laughable but indicates how much he failed to wrench himself off of his long held but debunked Marxian authoritarian methods. I haven’t heard any Ethiopian politician who argues the state should not intervene in the country’s economic development or anyone who argues to leave the economy to market forces. There may be argument in the level and kind of intervention. This has even ceased to be an argument in developed democracies anymore let alone in Ethiopia. But as increases in accusations about human rights violations and closure of democratic space become intensified, Mr. Zenawi, his officials and supporters seem to keep clinging to non existing challenges and phantom statistics as a means of offsetting that.
In my view, there is no more disgusting sin than playing politics with Ethiopia’s massive and obscene poverty. Ethiopia’s poverty is too grim, too widespread, too sad and tragic to play political propaganda games with it. The exaggeration and in many instances the fabrication of the growth statistics is not making any dent on the lives of the millions of Ethiopians - as much as 90% of them who are absolutely poor as some recent estimates put it. Nor is it creating any hope for the mass of young people who concluded that their best bets for improving their lives is to leave the country in droves by taking risky journeys to foreign lands. A recent survey by Gallup shows nearly half the adult population of Ethiopia wants to leave the country. This doesn’t sound like coming from a country that is growing at the rate claimed by the government, fool of hope and great promise. We have enough to suffer from real poverty, we will only add to our misery if we pile lies on to that.

There are some striking independent evaluations that shade light into the amount of data manipulation and exaggeration by the government. Some are expatriate independent scholars who cannot be accused of having any Ethiopian political axe to grind. If you want an illustration of how the Ethiopian authorities play games with statistics to create an illusion of stratospheric economic growth, read this study by experts Stefan Dercon and Ruth Vegas Hill from Oxford University who collaborated with DFID of the UK to evaluate the performance of Ethiopia’s agriculture and checked the official numbers. The experts who made the study concluded that:

“The scale of output expansion in Ethiopia in the last 10 years is unprecedented. According to the data, it involved dramatic increases in areas cultivated with cereals, up 44 percent in the last 10 years, without any clear record or reporting on the process by which more land was obtained. Yields increased by 40 percent in the same period, with most of this growth in the last 5 years, but without any sign of intensification via fertilizer, improved seeds or irrigation and limited increases in land under the extension program. As yield growth has fast outpaced the experience elsewhere in Africa or during the Green Revolution in Asia but without input intensification, the sources of yield growth should be understood to restore trust in the current data. In general, more effort should be expanded to ensure the auditing of these key data sources on the Ethiopian economy”.

One of the major recommendations of the authors of this study states, “New, targeted data collection, and independent verification and auditing procedures are required to allow the necessary confidence in the current data”. In fact, they sound even more puzzled as to how these exaggerations were made since the crop- cutting method using a statistical sampling design that often generate superior data to other methods was used. The ferenjis seem to have been so polite not to use the word lie.

Using the official data and comparing it to international experience, the authors have found out that the Ethiopian government claimed to achieve in 10 years far more than what countries in East Asia achieved in longer years of the Green Revolution. At the end of the Green Revolution in the case of the Asians, we know that they overcame their food insecurity and started to fund their industrialization. On the contrary in Ethiopia’s case, the number of people on food handouts has grown to one in ten, the number of the absolute poor has increased and the structure of the economy remains basically unchanged. No official or expert of the Ethiopian government has so far attempted to explain these discrepancies. As the authoritarians that they are, they have the luxury of unaccountability and never feel responsible to explain it. In tragic Ethiopia, often it is the critic that gets in trouble than those who do the blunder. When you catch them with their hands in the cookie jar, they get angry and accuse you of some malicious intent. Some years ago Meles promised that he will shortly create an economy where all Ethiopians will have three meals a day. He never told us why that prediction failed miserably. With this propensity for exaggeration and unaccountability, I am surprised why they promised us only a 15% GDP growth during the next five-year plan that they just announced.

An Ethiopian economist who lives in Ethiopia whose comments I often value told me recently that anyone who would come up with a finding of 9.9% growth would be in trouble in Ethiopia today. It has to be double digit to sound mouthful and of propaganda value for the donors to like it. Most objective experts I talked to say the growth is anywhere near five or six percent which, of course, doesn’t mean it is not remarkable. I am sure any World Bank and IMF expert will not give you more than a 6% rate, if they talk to you in private and promise them you will not disclose their name. (By the way the IMF and the World Bank do not collect their own data or replicate the official survey, but Meles keeps claiming they agree with him). It is simply a pity.

The truth of the matter is that Ethiopia is still a predominantly subsistence farming agricultural country that depends heavily on rainfall. Good old coffee and other agricultural products are still the products that fetch hard currency as they did during the Emperor’s time. Thanks to our dispersal around the world we in the Diaspora send a lot of money home every year. Yes, a lot construction of roads and buildings has taken place and a few people have stricken it filthy rich in the service and construction sectors. Most of them, we are told, are the well connected and the powerful. Yet, we have more poor people than at any time in our history. Little of this growth is trickling down to the tragically destitute.
Meaningful economic development and ending or reducing poverty requires looking at and affecting a web of interacting variables and factors. It is not as easy as making some linear extrapolation. True, there has been growth in the economy over the past several years. But we also know that this growth has made little dent on the lives of the mass of the suffering people. We also know that none of this increase is due to any innovative work or advance in technology or structural changes in the economy as the government wants us to blindly believe. We know exactly which sectors of the economy have shown growth and why. It is also important to note that Ethiopia is not the only country in Africa that has achieved considerable increase in GDP. Many African countries, most of our neighbors to the south and west, recorded considerable growth numbers during the same period. It is a result of part good weather, part foreign aid, part local effort. You can apply enough chemical fertilizer and grow the yield per unit area if the rains are good. Or you can play nice with donors and be their darling and get billions of dollars in aid, as the Ethiopian authorities successfully did, and can register considerable quantitative increase in GDP. But then again this is not a sustainable way of fighting endemic poverty or basing your future forecasts on.
The only way out of Ethiopia’s poverty is the prevalence of the rule of law and democracy. It is the making of a confident people in the institutions of the country and the accountability of the government. There is no country that has prospered without resolving outstanding political and other conflicts within themselves through a democratic and lawful way. The models Meles often loves to cite have done that. They have reduced their conflicts to manageable levels through tolerance and the rule of law and not by trying to crush them through the use of force. Even China couldn’t have done it without allowing a level of diversity of views and dissent inside the communist party. All emerging economies are those that have liberalized themselves and achieved at least a patriotic unity of their people.
Some supporter of the government recently told me boastfully that the number of universities in the country has grown more than ten times. I asked him if he knows that the research output from these universities is less than when we had only two, and if he knows more than 50% of the instructors are first degree holders and in some cases undergraduate senior students and asked him to define a university for me. My friend, who was happy to play the numbers game could not say a word about any of the substance.
Let me leave you with an example of how people play games with numbers and statistics that my Indian professor once told me. He told me about a 100 people who were trying to cross a river. They all couldn’t swim and were afraid of drowning as they did not know the depth of the river. Finally there was some mathematically endowed person among them who set out to measure the depth of the river and the height of all hundred of them. He made the necessary calculations and found that the average height of the people was above the river’s depth. He then told all of them that everybody can cross on the average. Unfortunately the 25 of them who were very tall have influenced the average. Seventy five of them drowned. There wasn’t even a mistake on the mathematical computation. It was a failure of thinking.
Ethiopia has a herculean challenge of getting out of poverty. Its rapidly growing population, the environmental degradation, and the challenges of plugging in to a globalized world, to mention just a few, are not easy. Yes, poverty is the number one problem of the country that all of us seem to agree on. But you cannot solve a number one problem by making it secondary to absolute political control. Those who tried that it in the past have failed miserably. I pray for my country and for wisdom.
FekadeS@gmail.com

Mubarak pledges to keep Nile water in Egypt

While inaugurating the new Saft el-Laban corridor in Giza, President Mubarak assured that Nile water “will not extend beyond Egyptian borders."

Mubarak further called for making optimal use of Nile water, carrying out seawater desalination projects, and using modern technology to develop new types of crops that can be irrigated with salt water in order to satisfy the growing demand for food.

Diaa Eddin al-Qoussi, former advisor to the minister of irrigation, told Al-Masry Al-Youm that Mubarak’s statements clearly demonstrate that Egypt will not give up its Nile water quota in order to satisfy Israel. He added that Mubarak’s statements further emphasize that Egypt rejects any negotiations which aim to bring Nile water to Israel.

Maghawri Shehata Diab, former president of Minufiya University and a water expert, said Mubarak's statements reflect a clear understanding of the geographical nature of the Nile Basin, as well as of the political and legal dimensions governing the distribution of water.

In related news, Kenya has announced that it is carrying out an assessment of the impact of Ethiopia's Gibe III Dam. The dam, intended to generate hydroelectric power, would become the second largest dam in Africa after Egypt’s High Dam in Aswan.

The massive dam is scheduled to be completed by 2012 at an estimated cost of US$1.76 billion. Construction of the dam is mainly financed by the African Development Bank. The World Bank withdrew funding for the project under pressure from non-governmental organizations.

The dam will generate 1,800 megawatts of electricity, according to the Ethiopian government, which also says that Kenya has pledged to purchase some of the energy produced by the dam. As a result, Kenyan environmental groups have accused their government of taking greater interest in the well-being of Ethiopians.

The Ethiopian government says that environmental impact studies have shown that the dam will not negatively impact life in any local communities.

The Kenyan Minister of Power said that the Kenyan government and the European Investment Bank will both study the impact of the dam. The results of both studies will be submitted to the Kenyan government in December.

The Kenyan government’s decision to examine the potential impact of building the dam came in response to local and international pressure from rights groups. These groups cited Egypt's threat of military intervention if Ethiopia carried out any projects that would intervene with the flow of the Blue Nile.

Translated from the Arabic Edition.
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Ethiopia, 25 years later

The image most of us retain of Ethiopia is one of mass starvation and a glittery rock concert intended to ease the suffering. That famine and concert was 25 years ago, and Ethiopia has tried to move on. But just as the world at first overlooked the famine, it is now not aware of progress in the country. Economic and political strides have been made, but still many Ethiopians struggle just a bad drought or flood away from disaster. Peter Gill, who covered the famine and wrote “A Year in the Death of Africa,” now looks at Ethiopia over the past 25 years in “Famine and Foreigners: Ethiopia Since Live Aid,” out this month from Oxford University Press.

By Peter Gill

Ethiopia is desperate to live down its past – but not the story of an ancient empire founded in a union between King Solomon and the Queen of Sheba; nor the tale of a Christian culture established before the conversion of much of Europe; nor the country’s crushing defeat of European colonizers. Rather Ethiopia is trying to get past its more recent history of famine and suffering.

The world has an image of Ethiopia based on the terrible events of 1984-5 when up to one million died of starvation and when rock stars in the United States and Britain sang ‘We are the World’ and ‘Do they know it’s Christmas?’ to raise money for famine relief.

All that has now changed, say the Ethiopians. But Western commentators are out of touch with the new reality. The former famine lands of the North have been at peace for the past 20 years and a stable government with a commitment to agricultural development has brought about real improvements. Overall the Ethiopian economy has boomed over recent years, with only a temporary check brought about by rocketing international commodity prices in 2008.

The big problem with the old image, officials complain, is that it is an active obstruction to Ethiopian progress. Every time a starvation story gets into on to television, potential investors think again about where they putting their money.

The West’s relentless focus on the aid relationship and how best to help relieve hunger and poverty dominates the official relationship and those same old tales of suffering discourage tourists from discovering the treasures of one of the world’s greatest cultures.

Friends of Ethiopia can sympathize with this impatience to shrug off the old and get on with the new. But in the memorable words of the Nigerian writer Chinua Achebe (he was actually referring to ‘tribe,’ not ‘famine’) ‘a word will stay around as long as there is work for it to do.’

For all Ethiopia’s determination to live down the recent past, the unfortunate truth is that far too many of its people live on the margins of existence, that just one shock such as a drought or a flood tip them into destitution and the risk of death from starvation, and that upwards of ten million of them are dependent on an almost annual basis on foreign food aid.

A quarter of a century on from the rock star mobilization of the mid-1980s, the twin problems of backward agricultural practices and galloping population growth remain the same. At the time of the great famine Ethiopia had a population of 40 million. It now has 80 million people and that figure could double again in the next 25 to 30 years.

Yet Ethiopia’s own efforts in family planning and agricultural development have not always been endorsed by the aid-givers. The fashion-conscious rich world moved away from these development fundamentals to concentrate instead on the showier provision of education and health, and then more recently on democracy and ‘good governance.’

In the 20 years after the famine, western agricultural aid to Africa fell by almost two thirds, and in the past decade, thanks largely to Washington’s distaste for contraception, aid expenditure on family planning in Africa has also fallen. According to the United Nations, it now amounts to just one fortieth of spending on HIV/AIDS.

Not everyone rails against the injustice of Ethiopia’s characterization as the land of famine. Often in my discussions with him, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi took me by surprise. When I asked him about the western image of his country, I expected a politician’s defensiveness.

The answer I received was this: “Humiliation can be a very powerful motivation for action and therefore I don’t hate the fact that we get humiliated every day provided it’s based on facts ... if we feel we deserve to be treated like honourable citizens of the world, then we have to remove the source of that shame. There is no way round it.”

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